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the mat expectation in money may be higher than the mat expectation in pips(may even be a negative value with an overall positive return) when using systems with fillings or martin-like variations. therefore judging a trade solely by pips is not true for all types of TS.
Absolutely right! But I didn't include it in my explanation. Indeed, if we calculate the MM for a Martin classically, in pips it will be negative in 90% of cases with a positive profit.
Therefore the MO of any TS is calculated quite differently - only I am able to do it that way. Here's the story.
We know that if we change the commission, the IM will change. And we can mathematically find the commission which will reduce profit to zero. So that value, by which we should increase the commission to bring the results of TS trading to zero, is half of the required value of additional means.
When this additional commission is found, it is calculated in relative values - percentage of the deal price (in terms of MT5). To convert it to points, we do a simple conversion, as we do every time we want to understand the amount of broker's commission in current pips.
So if we measure the real MO of the signal in pips, it is much less than 150 pips. That's why the average subscriber is losing.
... That's why the average subscriber leaks.
If the calculations show that the average subscriber of this signal is losing, who is subscribed to this signal?
And how do you know what spread the signal trader trades with: fixed or floating.
To thoroughly understand, you have to trade yourself, create a signal, get subscribers, know where and what kind of account you opened, look at the history report of both parties, compare them, and then draw conclusions.
And not to discuss everything in a theoretical way. Everything happens differently in real trading.
If someone thinks that an order closes with a profit of only 1 point while a subscriber receives a signal with a delay, it will finally come out without any losses.
Everyone seems to think that price always goes against the Signals Provider. Sometimes it is in his favor and he will gain not one pip but much more.
I advise to do everything yourself, and not to listen to what others say.
There are service slippage statistics, which are maintained by the developers and which are available to everyone. For example, slippage of 1 point on EURUSD = 0.00010 - 10 five-digit pips.
If the Provider opens a position with such slippage and closes it with a profit of 20 points, the Subscriber will gain 0 points of profit (10 points will slip on opening and the same amount on closing).
In addition, the subscriber will pay the broker's commission.
Therefore, in order to make a profit, Subscriber should have the Provider's mathematical expectation more than twice as big as the average slippage. In this case it is > 150 pips on Pepper (there are a lot of subscribers there). There's a little less, if not more. But it's clear that if the average subscriber has ~$5000 ($5700K/1200), they don't keep it in the kitchen, which have shallow slips, but wherever ECN is somehow mentioned. That's why Pepper and company are so popular with subscribers - they don't cheat.
The Signal has the mathematical expectation < 150 pips. Therefore, the developers' statistics suggest that the average subscriber loses while copying even if the Provider is profitable.
a subscriber opens a deal 150 pips worse on average
if it is a buy, the price goes up by 150 pips
if it is a sell, the price goes down by 150 pips.
if you take EURUSD, this pair needs over an hour to pass 150 pips.
so you also claim that the average subscriber opens a deal an hour later and during this time the price goes exactly towards the deal opening.
is it me - does it look delusional??
slippage is a price change for time t1-t0
t0 - time of provider's price opening
t1 - time of subscriber's price opening
if during this time the price moves continuously to the worse side for the subscriber (when buying the price goes up), then the provider is a genius - he buys at the minimum and sells at the maximum
I claim that this time t1-t0 is measured in ms (very rarely in seconds).. during this time the price does not really go anywhere
if the price deviates a little, it is not necessarily in the right direction... it should be 50% to 50%... in practice, the opening price is often better at subscriber
I respond to several dozen emails every day... no problems with copying... sometimes (isolated cases) the deal did not open, which lasted less than a minute
Gentlemen, why are you judging here?
There are two possibilities:
1) These are the dead souls of DC (self-subscribed)
2) The real number of people
For each option, you can give your arguments in the plus or minus.
Create a similar return at such a drawdown is possible even by the advisor - for this I can say for sure.Taras Gonchar:
I'm paraphrasing, so that you can see your own mistakes:
the average subscriber opens a deal 150 pips worse
if it is a buy, the price goes up by 150 pips.
if it is a sell, the price goes down by 150 pips.
If we look at the EURUSD, it will take more than an hour for it to go past 150 pips...
So you're also saying that the average subscriber's trade will open an hour later and during this time the price moves downwards...
am i the only one who thinks this is bullshit???
As understood, it really is nonsense. 150 pips came out of these considerations
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1200 subscribers!!!
fxsaber, 2017.01.16 18:33
Do I understand correctly that each position loses in profit 57.3 pips * 2 (opening and closing) = 114.6 pips (five digits)?
I.e. (for the profit) mathematical expectation of the signal in pips should be higher than 114.6 pips + commission from the Subscriber's broker. Summing up, the profit will be zero for such a subscriber if the ISP's mathematical expectation is ~ 150 pips - it is too much (and we should also earn). Do they drain? But then the feedback would be appropriate. With such a wild slippage the signal-services completely lose to PAMM-services where any subscriber will have a profit if the mathematical expectation is simply more than zero.
In general, someone responsible for the Signals would explain what is there and what it is all about. It is surprising that with its existence for so long, things are still far from clear.
The slippage, if we believe the developers, is 57.3 pips on opening and the same amount on closing. Taking into account the need to cover your broker's commission subscribers, it adds up to ~150 pips.
What's more, note the bolded lines. It's not hard to calculate the MO from the stack and tell exactly what slippage is critical - values higher will make a loss. Then there is no need to even think about the validity of the developers' data. Although, most likely, everything is clear there. There is nothing easier for them than to measure the slippage at copying. And calculate the average value of this slippage which is shown on the website. Well, they don't get these numbers from the ground.
The slippage is the price change for the time t1-t0.
t0 - time of price opening by providert1 - time of price opening by a subscriber
if the price moves steadily to the worse side for the subscriber (when buying, it goes up), then the provider is a genius: he buys at the minimum and sells at the maximum
my claim is that this time t1-t0 is measured in milliseconds (very rarely in seconds)... during this time, the price doesn't really go anywhere
if the price deviates slightly, it does not have to be for the better... it should be 50% to 50%... in practice, the opening price is often better with a subscriber
i answer dozens of letters every day... no problems with copying... sometimes (isolated cases) a deal was not opened that lasted less than a minute
At the same time the prices of the Provider's broker and the Subscriber's broker are strikingly different. Hence the slippage, mostly not due to lag.
When trading through limiters, the results will be different, even if you trade on the exchange (where everything is clear) with the same TS on two different accounts. And copying of the limit trading system is always more unprofitable than the original one.
If the calculations show that the average subscriber of this signal is losing, then who is subscribed to this signal?
You've heard about the average hospital temperature. It's the same here. On average, the world's trading is losing at the rate of commission costs of the venues. However, traders are coming.
The average casino player is losing, but the players are going. The average TS is losing, but TSs are being written and some are making money.
I.e. in this case each subscriber sees to the extent of his/her understanding that it is possible to earn.
Many people think it's impossible to collect many subscribers or buyers in a marketplace on this resource.
I confirm that this resource gives everyone the opportunity to collect hundreds of buyers in an honest way.
What do I have to do in order to do that? You just need to know how to trade profitably.
Many people think it's impossible to collect many subscribers or buyers in a marketplace on this resource.
I affirm that this resource gives everyone the opportunity to collect hundreds of buyers in an honest way.
What do I have to do in order to do that? You just need to know how to trade profitably.
God, can you imagine what dough! Two thousand times thirty, equals thirty-six thousand dollars! Multiply by sixty and two million one hundred sixty thousand rubles! A month? This is the result of life. Passive income is top. Something to strive for. A dream of last resort after sufficient active earnings.
One thing I don't understand. Why there are not more subscribers? There are millions of traders.
Thoughts aloud
This signal is a typicalsurvivor's mistake.
Obviously, there will always be a winner in such ratings, but the probability that this winner will be exactly you is negligible. Even based on the official statistics, the very statistics through which we know this "hero", it follows that:
In other words, you have only 1.3% probability to earn something from the signals, while the probability that you will have more than 1000 subscribers is 0.02%.
With the same success you can play Russian Lotto and win a million, and then tell everyone how to really pull the winning ticket.
s.s. Reading all this, I remember a similar story with more than 900 subscribers, which ended badly:Signal Providers johnpaul77: "our strategy for more than three years gives excellent results, why should we change it?"
That's true:"It happens, they'll say about something: look, it's news! But it was already there in the centuries that came before us".