Press review - page 540

[Sergey Golubev]

 Coca-Cola shares - global bullish reversal, 42.58 is the key (based on the article)

CCE share price on weekly chart os located inside Ichimoku cloud for the ranging market condition by breaking Senkou Span line which is the virtual border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend on the chart. If the price breaks Senkou Span to above together with 42.58 resistance level on close weekly bar so the bullish reversal will be started, otherwise - ranging within the level to be inside Ichimoku cloud.

• "The Coca-Cola Company is scheduled to announce its second quarter results on July 26, and even though the core performance may remain solid, both the top line and EPS are expected to take a hit due to the refranchising of bottling operations across geographies. This negatively impacted the company's first quarter results as well, when net revenue fell 11% year-over-year, with a 10 percentage point unfavorable impact of the structural changes."
• "Keeping this trend in mind, Coca-Cola launched ready-to-drink tea lattes and coffees in the first quarter of 2017, under its Gold Peak brand. Gold Peak will join Illy in Coca-Cola’s burgeoning ready-to-drink (RTD) coffee portfolio in the United States. The company also expanded its ready-to-drink tea portfolio in Canada in the second quarter. North America is the fastest growing region for RTD tea and coffee, primarily due to increased health concerns around sweetened carbonated beverages. Other factors driving this growth include rising disposable income, urbanization, and the functional nature of these beverages. By expanding into this market, Coca-Cola can reduce its dependence on CSDs and find new engines for growth as that market slows."

[Sergey Golubev]

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australian Consumer Price Index and range price movement 

2017-07-26 02:30 GMT | [AUD - CPI]

• past data is 0.5%
• forecast data is 0.4%
• actual data is 0.2% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers. 

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From official report :

• THE ALL GROUPS CPI
  

  • rose 0.2% this quarter, compared with a rise of 0.5% in the March quarter 2017.
  • rose 1.9% over the twelve months to the June quarter 2017, compared with a rise of 2.1% over the twelve months to the March quarter 2017.

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AUD/USD M5: range price movement by Australian Consumer Price Index news event 

[Sergey Golubev]

U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news event: intra-day bullish breakout; daily bullish reversal to be started

2017-07-26 15:30 GMT | [USD - Crude Oil Inventories]

• past data is -4.7M
• forecast data is -3.3M
• actual data is -7.2M according to the latest press release

[USD - Crude Oil Inventories] = Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week.

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"U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 7.2 million barrels from the previous week."

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Crude Oil M5: bullish breakout. The price was bounced from 50.22 support level to above to be crossed with 100 SMA/200 SMA reversal levels fror the primary bullish market condition.

If the price breaks 51.03 resistance level to above on M5 close bar so the bullish trend will be continuing.
If the price breaks 100 SMA/200 SMA support at 50.50 to below on M5 close bar so the bearish reversal will be started.
If not so the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels.

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Crude Oil Daily: bullish reversal. The price is located inside Ichimoku cloud in the ranging area of the chart by testing resistance level at 50.89 to above on daily close bar for the daily price to be reversed to the primary bullish market condition.

[Sergey Golubev]

Brent Crude Oil - intra-day bullish breakout; 51.13 level is the key (based on the article)

Price on H4 chart is above 100 SMA/200 SMA in the bullish area of the chart: the price is breaking 51.13 resistance level to above for the ullish trend to be continuing.

• "Like a snowball rolling downhill, the Crude Oil market is beginning to gain valid arguments for a Bullish breakout. Recently, we’ve focused on the export (as opposed to production) curbs that have been agreed to in St. Petersburg by Saudi Arabia and the UAE. On Wednesday, we saw Oil climb still further on tangible proof that the supply glut is shrinking through a drop in crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories with overall petroleum inventories in the US sitting at their lowest levels since early 2016 per Bloomberg."
• "The headline EIA print showed a decline of 7.2m barrels last week in US crude stockpiles, which was nearly double the expected decline. Naturally, this market remains demand heavy, which is playing well this time of year, but the DOE data showing a running 4-week average of total petroleum products supplied high 21.2m barrels per day, which was the highest supply level seen since early 2008. You could argue that given the draw in stockpiles, that is a rather bullish development in showing that demand is hitting record highs too, and I would favor that argument as well, but demand will need to keep pace with supply if this recovery in price is to have legs."

[Sergey Golubev]

EUR/USD - breakout with possible long term bullish reversal; 1.1777 is the key (based on the article)

Monthly price is on bear market rally located near and below Ichimoku cloud in the bearish area of the chart. The price is testing 1.1777 resistance level to above for the bullish reversal to be started with the secondary ranging way.

• "EUR/USD captured headlines today as it printed a fresh 2.5 year high on the heels of Yellen cautiously looking at inflation. We have been bullish EUR/USD since May 22 targeting a retest of the 1.16 highs. Now that we have arrived, what’s next? Is this new 30 month high a fresh breakout or a fake out to draw the bulls in?"
• "The model we are following shows the shorter term trend may be nearing the end of this upward trend. Multiple models are pointing to a sell off towards 1.1250-1.1400. From there, the models begin to diverge."

[Sergey Golubev]

Facebook shares - bullish breakout; 166.16 is the key (based on the article)

Facebook share price on weekly chart is located above ichimoku cloud in the bullish trend area. The price was bounced from 144.56 support level to above for the bulloish breakout to be started with ascending triangle pattern to be broken to above together with 165.70 resistance level for the bullish breakout to be continuing.

It is very similar situation with bulliosh breakout and ascending triangle pattern for H4 and daily charts with 166.16 key resistance level for the bullish trend to be continuing if broken.

• "Last night, after the close off regular market trading, Facebook reported a stellar set of numbers for its June quarter."
• "The company said it earned $1.32 per share on revenues of $9.32 billion for the three months ended in June. Wall Street analysts were expecting the company to report earnings of $1.13 per share on revenues of $9.2 billion."

[Sergey Golubev]

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, GBP/USD and Dollar Index: Durable Goods Orders

2017-07-27 13:30 GMT | [USD - Durable Goods Orders]

• past data is -0.8%
• forecast data is 3.5%
• actual data is 6.5% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Durable Goods Orders] = hange in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for durable goods.

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From abcnews article :

• "US durable goods orders climbed 6.5 percent in June, most in nearly three years, on surging demand for civilian aircraft."

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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by Durable Goods Orders news events

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GBP/USD M5: range price movement by Durable Goods Orders news events

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Dollar Index M5: range price movement by Durable Goods Orders news events

[Sergey Golubev]

USD/CAD - daily bearish; 1.2413 is the key (based on the article)

Daily price is located very far from Ichimoku cloud in the bearish area of the chart: price is breaking descending triangle pattern to below together with 1.2413 support level for the bearish trend to be continuing.

• "The 1.24 hand showed two wave relationships showing up the area. First, the 61.8% extension of the January 2016 to May 2016 down trend projected to 1.2399. Secondly, within the current down trend that began May 2017, there is a 2.618 extension near 1.2475. With two different wave projecting wave relationships near the same level, a reaction higher is likely."
• "The depth and shape of the bounce will alert us if the downtrend is over or if it is merely taking a breather. It would be considered normal for the bounce higher to work back towards the 1.28 handle. If the bounce higher proceeded as a slow grind of overlapping waves, then that would suggest the upward push is corrective and further downside may prevail in the longer term."

  
  

[Sergey Golubev]

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, USD/JPY and USD/CNH: U.S. Gross Domestic Product

2017-07-28 13:30 GMT | [USD - GDP]

• past data is 1.4%
• forecast data is 2.5%
• actual data is 2.6% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - GDP] = Annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

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From official report :

• "Real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 2.6 percent in the second quarter of 2017 (table 1), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 1.2 percent (revised)."
• "The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 0.8 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 2.6 percent in the first quarter (revised) (table 4). The PCE price index increased 0.3 percent, compared with an increase of 2.2 percent. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 0.9 percent, compared with an increase of 1.8 percent (appendix table A)."

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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by U.S. Gross Domestic Product news events

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USD/JPY M5: range price movement by U.S. Gross Domestic Product news events

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USD/CNH M5: range price movement by U.S. Gross Domestic Product news events

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Dollar Index (based on the article)

Dollar Index - "The big driver for this week seemed to emanate from the Federal Reserve’s statement accompanying the rate decision. There was no press conference, and no updated forecasts; but in the Fed’s statement the bank mentioned that balance sheet reduction may begin ‘relatively soon’. This was largely inferred to mean their next meeting on September 20-21, and while the Fed has said previously that they anticipate invoking balance sheet reduction while also continuing to normalize rates, markets don’t appear to be buying that thesis just yet. U.S. data remains rather soft, and the Fed even voiced concern about lackluster inflation in that statement on Wednesday; and this makes for a difficult environment for tighter operating conditions, much less tightening on dual fronts with both higher rates and balance sheet reduction"