Press review - page 534

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for USD/CNH (based on the article)

USD/CNH - "Gauges that can influence China’s monetary policy are worth to watch as well. China’s Consumer Price Index is expected to rise 1.6% in June from 1.5% in the month prior, though both figures are still distant from the target 3%. With a relatively low inflation, the PBOC is less likely to increase benchmark rates. On the other hand, the regulator is neither likely to cut rates despite of the economic slowdown. In the 2017 China Financial Stability Report released by the PBOC this week, the regulator said that the risk of housing price bubbles remained elevated in some regions and the home loans’ proportion of total new yuan loans was still high. In May, home loans have taken up over 50% of the total loans. Before the ratio drops to a desired level, the PBOC will mostly likely keep monetary policy neutral, which is tighter than last year."

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for GOLD (XAU/USD) (based on the article)

XAU/USD - "Highlighting the economic docket next week will be the semi-annual Humphry Hawkins monetary policy testimony before Congress. U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls released on Friday highlighted a gain of 222K jobs last month with the labor force participation rate rebounding from a 6-month low to 62.8%. Average hourly earnings continued to disappoint however with a downward revision to last month’s read further emphasizing weakness in the inflationary outlook. That said, we’ll be looking for a fresh batch of commentary / questioning regarding the committees willingness to begin offloading the massive balance sheet this year and beyond the prepared remarks traders will be lending a keen ear to the Q&A session with Fed Chair Janet Yellen. The June Consumer Price Index (CPI) & Retail Sales figures are also on tap later next week and could fuel added volatility in both the USD & Gold."

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for S&P 500 (based on the article)

S&P 500 - "To conclude last week the market responded positively to the mixed June jobs report – while the headline NFP figure was a solid beat at +222k vs. the consensus estimate of +178k, wage growth (inflation indicator) was slightly lower to 2.5% YoY from the 2.6% expected. Looking ahead to next week, the big event will be Fed Chair Janet Yellen testifying before Congress and the U.S. House Panel on Wednesday, and then she’ll appear before the Senate Banking Panel on Thursday. Key data prints in the week ahead are CPI, Retail Sales, and UofM Confidence on Friday."

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for DAX (based on the article)

DAX - "Looking ahead to next week, on the data-front the calendar is lacking in ‘high’ impact events. Global markets may respond to Yellen’s testimony on Wednesday and Thursday should she shake things up in the U.S."

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for FTSE 100 (based on the article)

FTSE 100 - "Looking ahead to next week, the Bank of England Credit Conditions & Bank Liabilities Surveys on Thursday is the only ‘high’ impact event slated. The FTSE may respond to Yellen’s testimony should we see her words sway U.S. markets."

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Crude Oil (based on the article)

Crude Oil - "US crude oil continues to fall, and is likely to fall further, as shale companies continue to increase production to near-record levels. After rallying sharply on Thursday on news of a larger-than-expected drawdown in oil inventories, US crude gave back all of its gains and currently trades at a two-week low around $44.51/brl. Crude is also nearly $3 lower than Wednesdays high of $47.35/brl."

[Sergey Golubev]

NZD/USD - bullish ranging within narrow s/r levels; 0.7343 and 0.7102 are the keys (based on the article)

Daily price broke 200 period SMA to above on the good breakout movement to be reversed to the primary bullish market condition. The price is on ranging within 0.7343/0.7101 support/resistance levelfor the bullish trend to be continuing or to the bearish reversal to be started.

• "The New Zealand Dollar is struggling to build downside momentum after seeming breaking the bounds of the upswing launched from mid-May lows. Still, overall positioning suggests that the choppy bearish trend defining price action since early September 2016 may be resuming."
• "Near-term support is in the 0.7259-63 area (14.6% Fibonacci expansion, former resistance). A break below that on a daily closing basis opens the door for a test of the 0.7208-15 zone (chart inflection point, 23.6% level). Alternatively, a push above the June 30 high at 0.7347 exposes a double top at 0.7382."

[Sergey Golubev]

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: NAB Business Confidence and range price movement 

2017-07-11 02:30 GMT | [AUD - NAB Business Confidence]

• past data is 8
• forecast data is n/a
• actual data is 9 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - NAB Business Confidence] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed businesses, excluding the farming industry. 

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From rttnews article :

• "Business confidence in Australia saw a marginal improvement in June, the latest survey from the National Australia Bank revealed on Tuesday with an index score of +9."
• "That's up from +8 in May, and it moves further into positive territory and the realm of optimism."

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AUD/USD M5: range price movement by NAB Business Confidence news event 

[Sergey Golubev]

USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: CMHC Housing Starts and range price movement 

2017-07-11 13:15 GMT | [CAD - Housing Starts]

• past data is 195K
• forecast data is 200K
• actual data is 213K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CAD in our case)

[CAD - Housing Starts] = Annualized number of new residential buildings that began construction during the previous month. 

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From official report :

• "The trend in housing starts was 215,459 units in June 2017, compared to 214,570 units in May 2017, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). This trend measure is a six-month moving average of the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR) of housing starts."
• "The standalone monthly SAAR of housing starts for all areas in Canada was 212,695 units in June, up from 194,955 units in May. The SAAR of urban starts increased by 9.6 per cent in June to 194,773 units. Multiple urban starts increased by 9.4 per cent to 127,944 units in June and single-detached urban starts increased by 10.1 per cent, to 66,829 units."

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USD/CAD M5: range price movement by Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation news event 

[Sergey Golubev]

Crude Oil - daily rally; 49.15 is the key (based on the article)

Brent Crude Oil price on daily chart is on the local uptrend as the secondary rally to be started by 48.28 resistance level breaking to above with 49.15/50.70 resistance bullish reversal level; as the nearest daily targets.

• "Safe to say that OPEC gatherings are about to get a shade more uncomfortable. On Monday, rumors leaked that Saudi was likely to ask that Libya and Nigeria to cut production as their increased production was overshadowing the intended positive effect of Saudi’s cuts. However, reports from Bloomberg have stated that Saudi Arabia itself is reporting to OPEC officials that they pumped 10.07 million bpd in June up from 9.88m in May and exceeding their limit for the first time since the production curb deal they helped broker. Either way, the minimal excess production will likely give Libya and Nigeria reason to state they were justified in overproduction due to high summer demand, but we continue to be a ways off from the hoped for Shock and Awe to scare markets to bid Oil higher."
• "The EIA report that shows new production and legacy decline illustrates that 300-400k bpd is needed from new rigs to help offset retiring legacy rigs. I would argue that as oil stays at depressed levels, projects that had been approved or planned to be implemented will come offline, which over time could help balance the oversupply issue. However, this is not a quick fix, though a natural one, and could mean aside from a ‘Shock & Awe’ moment, we could be in for an early winter in terms of bullish crude oil prospects."