Live Testing reports - page 14
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This is a quick summary of results from 2006.11.27.
1. Timeframe: 15M
2. Broker: NF
3. Settings file: Default
4. Account: Demo
5. Version: 5_6_06
6. Mode: 3
TOTAL
WINS LOSES RATIO LOTS PROFIT($) PROFIT(pips)
EURJPY 12 4 3:1 2.0 366.82 426
EURUSD 4 2 2:1 1.8 -46.00 -118
GBPJPY 8 29 0.28:1 3.7 -894.26 -1,042
GBPUSD 12 0 12:0 1.2 1,117.00 1,117
USDCHF 10 0 10:0 1.0 756.78 913
USDJPY 12 2 6:1 1.4 293.75 336
58 37 1.56:1 11.1 1,594.09 1,632
Hi wackena:
May i know the risk that u use.Is it 0.05 or 0.3
Thanks
Part of this is due to a more stable signal, part of it is due to less stoplosses being hit through drastically jumping spread. In attempting to make Phoenix more reliable with its signal, it became more overall profitable as well. (to verify this, change signal_count to 1 instead of 5 and backtest.)
Daraknor
In all sincerity, can you explain the use of, and purpose of, the statement above expecially the line in red. I have never looked at any of the newer codes versions of the Pheonix just the contest version.
Thanks
The Cockeyed Cowboy
Daraknor
In all sincerity, can you explain the use of, and purpose of, the statement above expecially the line in red. I have never looked at any of the newer codes versions of the Pheonix just the contest version.
Thanks
The Cockeyed CowboyIt came from a user on the ForexFactory website and I implemented it with a default of "1" and then increased the number to "5". Phoenix generates many signals to trade, sometimes they are very consistent (all the same direction) and sometimes they switch between buy and sell. So the trade signals may look like this:
buy buy sell sell buy sell buy sell buy buy buy buy sell buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy sell sell buy buy sell sell.
With a signal_count = 1, Phoenix would enter on the first buy signal and stay in the trade until it exited. When backtesting, that doesn't really tell you if the signal settings are 'statistically valid', it only tells you if it made a profit.
Having signal_count =5 the system would wait for 5 signals in a row, all buy or all sell. In the example, it would wait until signal #19 before it would execute a buy trade.
Since Phoenix is a trend reversal system, waiting longer to enter trades means needing to wait less time before the trend reverses. This reduces maximum drawdown. A signal_count of 30 or 50 is still valid and will still trade. 5 is a conservative number that avoids the choppiest markets. The signals are only traded when they are consistent, and a higher signal count means waiting for a more consistent signal - and waiting longer. The system isn't ideal because the signals could be hours apart - but they are the same signal.
If someone is doing backtest to find the best signals, setting signal_count = 5-50 and maxtrades=20 in Mode1 with no money management is a way to find the best signals for the time period.
It came from a user on the ForexFactory website and I implemented it with a default of "1" and then increased the number to "5". Phoenix generates many signals to trade, sometimes they are very consistent (all the same direction) and sometimes they switch between buy and sell. So the trade signals may look like this:
buy buy sell sell buy sell buy sell buy buy buy buy sell buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy sell sell buy buy sell sell.
With a signal_count = 1, Phoenix would enter on the first buy signal and stay in the trade until it exited. When backtesting, that doesn't really tell you if the signal settings are 'statistically valid', it only tells you if it made a profit.
Having signal_count =5 the system would wait for 5 signals in a row, all buy or all sell. In the example, it would wait until signal #19 before it would execute a buy trade.
Since Phoenix is a trend reversal system, waiting longer to enter trades means needing to wait less time before the trend reverses. This reduces maximum drawdown. A signal_count of 30 or 50 is still valid and will still trade. 5 is a conservative number that avoids the choppiest markets. The signals are only traded when they are consistent, and a higher signal count means waiting for a more consistent signal - and waiting longer. The system isn't ideal because the signals could be hours apart - but they are the same signal.
If someone is doing backtest to find the best signals, setting signal_count = 5-50 and maxtrades=20 in Mode1 with no money management is a way to find the best signals for the time period.Intreseting. Has anyone done tests on it to see if there is a corrilation between the higher the number to its profits over the same dataset? As in useing 1, 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, etc. with the same data and leaving everthing else constant.
The Cockeyed Cowboy
Intreseting. Has anyone done tests on it to see if there is a corrilation between the higher the number to its profits over the same dataset? As in useing 1, 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, etc. with the same data and leaving everthing else constant. The Cockeyed Cowboy
There was some initial testing done, but nothing definitive. I noticed less drawdown, but sometimes less profit too (because less trades) with very high numbers. Backtesting multiple trades in mode1 will be more reliable statistics. I look forward to some better testing! Having the same signal repeated doesn't necessarily make it better, but having trading a single signal means less consistency between people using the same broker since one person may trade the buy signal, and another may trade a sell signal 30 seconds later. With the signal_count set to 5, there is a much higher chance of two traders getting the same (good or bad) trades with same broker/settings/etc.
Hi wackena:
May i know the risk that u use.Is it 0.05 or 0.3
ThanksSorry for slow response. Risk=0.05.
Wackena
18-22 Dez
1. Timeframe: M15
2. Broker: IBFX
3. Settings file: Default
4. Account: Demo
5. Version: 5_7_0
6. Mode: 3
7. Pairs traded: 6
Generally it was a bad week for Phoenix, but this version had lower drawdown and is slowly recovering...
PS:Merry Christmas!
Results of the week
1. Timeframe: M15
2. Broker: FXDD3.
3. Settings: Default
4. Account: Demo
5. Version: 5_7_0
6. Mode: 3
7. Pairs traded: USD/JPY, CHF/USD, EUR/JPY, GB/USD
Started at openning Sunday
Comments : Ouch !!!!! Bad, bad, bad week... Very bad week... Arrrggggg ! Bad week !!!!! At least only two positive trades !!! Bad week... but it happens..
Well, let's be positive.
Or the market have been awfull for Phoenix
Or Phoenix 57 have to be put immediatly to garbagge
I vote option 1. Without any doubt....
Last month, when I started Pheonix, I posted the same things : there is a strong relation in the way to "catch the waves", the moment you START Pheonix. I posted that one mounth ago and nobody care coz it was the time when Hendrick quit. At the moment you are in the good tempo, all the week is pure honey
But if you catch the first trades on the wrong wave, your are "locked" in the wrong tend, locked by MM, locked by the logic of Pheonix, locked in nearly all your trades
Well : any comments coz I only want to understand what happened... and what we can do...
Merry Xmas to all
We can't win a ton every week, but we can add detection for times when the market doesn't match our style of trading. Don't countertrend when we have a strong trend! I'm working on it.
....Last month, when I started Pheonix, I posted the same things : there is a strong relation in the way to "catch the waves", the moment you START Pheonix. I posted that one mounth ago and nobody care coz it was the time when Hendrick quit. At the moment you are in the good tempo, all the week is pure honey
But if you catch the first trades on the wrong wave, your are "locked" in the wrong tend, locked by MM, locked by the logic of Pheonix, locked in nearly all your trades
Well : any comments coz I only want to understand what happened... and what we can do...
bertbin
It is not catching the the wrong wave, it is the market itself that did not lend itself to the style of trading that the Pheonix will feed on. I have made comments all along that it was not stable in its present form, and optimization is not the answer either. I made these statements when the Pheonix was basing in its glory. You must know why and how the Pheonix works to fix the parts that dont work (well together).
I have, I will admit, learnt from my reading of this thread. Learnt not from what people said but learnt by keeping my mind open to new and different posibilities. Learnt by taking things apart and studing each part indiviually and its support to the whole. Learnt by asking (to myself) what if? There is one part of the Pheonix, I must say, that really made me think and I spent a week in testing this one compondent, and from that testing I was able to walk away with a new market truth to add to my knowledge base. Something Wall Street dosenot talk about nor do you read in books. Its quite simple in deed. I dont even think Hendrick though of it when creating the Pheonix.
I will give you a bit to think about. Most people are saying that the Pheonix is this and that. But ask yourself, what if the contest were started 6 weeks later then its actual start time? The last half of the contest saw the account go from almost 30,000 to around 20,000 (end balance). If the contest were started in this time period you may of seen the Pheonix account go from 10,000 (starting balance) down to a point that it could not finish the contest as it would of exhausted its starting capital. Knowing the MM built into the system it would not of been that bad but just think of what these forum comments would of been like in that case. The give me group would not of given this system a second look.
Now I have not given any direct answers to your questions on this forum as there are a lot of people here that will take and run to Ebay and profit from your work, if not out right scam people with it. There are others that will not use an ounce of energy or time to work out anything for them selfs they are no better then the ones that scam in my opinion. Most people dislike me for not giveing direct answers, I dont mind, be the first to tell you I'm socially dysfunctional any way. Which by the way, has served me well in both trading and programing. I have mixed in some knowledge within my posts, now its your turn to open your mines, take them apart, and ask your self, what if. Thinking is the foundation of learning, and you should never take what sociaty says to be true till you prove for yourself it to be so.
Hope y'al have a nice holiday season;
The Cockeyed Cowboy