USD/CAD Pushes Higher On Broad Based Dollar Strength

The US Dollar continued to dominate the currency majors today, resulting in a push higher in USD/CAD for a fourth consecutive daily gain. The currency pair has now erased half of the decline from January to May. The pair managed to gain today despite a recovery in oil prices.

USD/CAD tested the 50% Fibonacci retracement measured from January highs to May lows found at 1.3575 today and has consolidated near the level. The pair had a weak opening with a gap lower, but losses were not sustained and the pair moved higher in early Asian trading.

The US Dollar index (DXY) is on track to post a sixth consecutive daily gain as the index has rallied over 1% today. Highs in DXY today were in close proximity of an important resistance level found at 100.26 as the level had contained the index on two occasions in 2015. A break of the level would have DXY trading at 13-year highs.

WTI Crude oil prices attempted to recover today in North American trading. USOIL reached a low of $42.18 prior to bouncing and has turned back to positive territory, last trading at $43.34 for a gain of 0.43%. Since turning lower on October 19, USOIL has given up over 15% in losses and trades near support from lows posted in August and September. There is some potential for a doji print on the daily chart after sharp losses in the prior two sessions, signaling a slowing of momentum in the broader downtrend and opening up the potential for a recovery.

Canada Teranet/National Bank HPI Oct mm +0.3% vs +0.8% prev

Canada Teranet/National Bank HPI Oct reading

yy 11.8% vs 11.7% prev
index 198.35 vs 197.79

thenews 2016.11.16 13:37 #444

Canada manufacturing sales for September 0.3% versus 0.1% estimate

Down from last month's +0.9% gain

The Canada manufacturing sales for September came in lower than last month's gain at +0.3%. Last month saw a gain of +0.9%. Although lower than last month's gain, the 0.3% gains was higher than the estimate of +0.1%.

Ex aauto manufacturing sales rose 0.3 in September
Inventories rose by 0.5% with the inventory to sales ratio rising to 1.37
Transportation equipment led the manufacturing gains
Unfilled orders were down -0.2%
New orders increase by 2.3%

Chaikin Oscillator - Oscillators Defining data source for Increment and decrement

thenews 2016.11.18 13:31 #445

October 2016 Canadian CPI 1.5% vs 1.5% exp y/y

Details from the October 2016 Canadian CPI data report 18 November 2016

Prior 1.3%
BOC core 1.7% vs 1.8% exp y/y. Prior 1.8%

thenews 2016.11.19 04:19 #446

CAD: A 'Front-Loaded' Depreciation Of The Loonie: Where To Target?

We expect a front-loaded depreciation of the loonie (USDCAD: 1.37 in Q4 16), with some moderation by the end of 2017 (to 1.42).

We expect Canada to be less affected than Mexico by the possible imposition of US anti-globalization policies, including renegotiating or rescinding NAFTA, but indirect effects may be greater than many realize, and uncertainty surrounding Trump’s policy choices is likely to weigh on the CAD.

Monetary policy divergence and widening interest rate differentials are likely to weigh on the loonie as well, since we continue to expect the BoC to stay on hold for the foreseeable future, although the risk is for additional easing. Oil prices could offer some support next year as the market slowly rebalances.

On the other hand, a fiscal expansion in the US that relies heavily on infrastructure spending can improve US growth and increase the demand for Canadian exports (particularly raw materials), absent any significant restriction to bilateral trade. In that case, the CAD could be better supported coming into 2018, allowing for appropriate policy lags.

source

Basic Principles - Trading Simple statements (expressions) Flexible MetaTrader 5 trading

thenews 2016.11.20 07:10 #447

Canadian US Dollar Exchange Rate To Resume Fall, USD/CAD Predicted To Rise Towards 1.37 Say CIBC

The Canadian dollar turned around this week after relentless selling since the US elections, which saw the USDCAD reach a high of $1.35885.

The Pound to Canadian Dollar exchange rate today (19/11/16): 1.66678.
The Canadian Dollar to Pound exchange rate today: 0.59996.
The US Dollar to Canadian Dollar exchange rate today: 1.35031.

The Canadian dollar was supported as the bond rout took a breather and crude oil prices spiked on hopes of a deal coming through in the OPEC meeting to be held on November 30.

The USD-CAD exchange rate has retraced 50% of the fall from the highs of 1.46899 reached on January 20 to the low print of 1.24697 on May 03.

"People felt that's a level they should probably unload some of their hedge, or if you caught the move in a positive way from a long (dollar-Canada) bias then maybe you sold some," said Darcy Browne, managing director for foreign exchange sales at CIBC Capital Markets, as quoted by Reuters.

Canada Sept wholesale trade sales -1.2% vs +0.5% expected

Canada wholesale trade for September

Prior was +0.8%
First decline in six months

thenews 2016.11.23 03:32 #449

USD/CAD Turns Higher As Oil Prices Fall Under Pressure

USD/CAD has posted a recovery today as oil prices have turned lower following sharp gains on Monday. Volatility is expected to remain high in the currency pair as an OPEC oil output deal as well as several risk events pertaining to the pair on Wednesday stand to impact the pair.

Optimism that an oil output deal will be reached has caused a sharp swing higher in WTI crude oil prices this week. USOIL gapped higher at the open and has reached a high of $49.17 prior to turning lower shortly after the European session open today. USOIL was last seen at $47.90 for a loss of 0.84% on the day.

The US Dollar index (DXY) closed in the red yesterday to snap a ten-day winning streak but has recovered most of Monday’s losses with a turn higher in European trading today. Volatility in the Dollar may slow this week as US banks will be off in observance of Thanksgiving on Thursday. There are several risk events from the United States on Wednesday that can trigger volatility ahead of the holiday.

Durable goods orders and the weekly unemployment claims are scheduled for release at 08:30 EST while the Fed will release minutes from their latest monetary policy meeting at 14:00 EST on Wednesday.

Retail sales figures out of Canada were reported to rise 0.6% in September following three consecutive readings of a 0.1% decline in the figure. Analysts had set expectations for a rise of 0.7% and the prior figure was revised up to indicate a rise of 0.1%. The data failed to have a sustained impact on the currency pair.

USD/CAD: Risk-Reward Attractive For Longs As WTI Oil Close To The Top Of Range

Canada September retail sales data yesterday was mixed. Canada front-end rates were slightly lower but continue to price minimal risk of further Bank of Canada easing. Meanwhile, crude prices are choppy amid mixed headlines from the ongoing OPEC meetings.

The WTI front contract managed to end in positive territory, though well-off its early highs. Our oil strategy team expects OPEC will succeed in delivering a production cut at the meetings, but that this will not be sufficient to rebalance the market in 2017.

With WTI prices getting close to the top of their range heading into the meeting, we think risk reward is more attractive for USDCAD longs in the near-term.