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Forecast and levels for Bitcoin/USD - page 3

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Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev  

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.06.12 11:28

Bitcoin market value saw an increase of 61% over the previous month (based on the article)

Weekly price is on bullish breakout with above Ichimoku cloud by 2936 resistabnce level to be testing to above for the bullish trend to be continuing.


If we look at H1 intra-day price so the bullish reversal pattern is forming by the price which si indicating the bullish trend to be continuing in the near future for example, otherwise - the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels by the crossing 2915 support level to below.


  • "In May 2017, the Bitcoin trading value in China reached CNY21.708 billion, four times that of April 2017. And the total Bitcoin value reached CNY19,200, a record high price."
  • "China's National Committee of Experts on the Internet Financial Security Technology the latest numbers and showed that by the end of May 2017, the world's Bitcoin market value saw an increase of 61% over the previous month to USD37.48 billion. However, the ratio of its market value among global virtual currencies decreased to 45.62%, due to the rapid growth of other competing currencies."
  • "In addition, with the growing of trading volume, China's Bitcoin trading price was over CNY10,000 for the first time on May 10 and the price continued to increase in the following two weeks. On May 25, it reached a record high price of CNY19,200."

Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev  

This is update for bitcoin.


The BTC/USD pair was bounced from 2,998 resistance level to below for the ranging above Ichimoku cloud

If the price breaks 2,998 resistance to above so the primary bullish trend will be resumed.
If the price breaks descending triangle pattern with 2,047 support level to below so the bearish reversal will be started.
If not so the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels.

Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev  

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.06.25 17:42

The Bitcoin Bubble (based on the article)

The price on M30 chart is located near and above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart near the border betweem the primary bearish and the primary bullish: descending triangle pattern was formed by the price with 2,697 support level to be crossed to below for the bearish reversal to be started. Besides, the 3-Drives bearish pattern is forming for the price to be reversed to the primary bearish market condition in intra-day basis for example.


  • "Term for what is often known as an “asset bubble”, “price bubble”, or “investment bubble” is “speculative bubble”, because invariably, the peaks of these bubbles are caused by very intense speculative activity. A speculative bubble occurs when an asset is far, far above anything close to what its real (it might be better to say “sustainable”) value might be. A better way of describing it might be to note that because all speculative bubbles burst, a bubble can be defined as an asset rising exponentially to extremely inflated prices and then crashing down and settling at a level which is far less than its original price (typically a fall of 75% or more). A speculative bubble is characterized by both the rise and fall, particularly the fall, taking place over brief time periods."
  • "It seems logical to assume that provided Bitcoin survives in its present uncontrolled and fixed state, it will inevitably appreciate against all fiat currencies, with the only discounting arising from the question of whether it will become fully accepted as a convenient, usable legal tender. A factor within this is whether other crypto-currencies could eventually usurp Bitcoin’s leading role: it is worth noting that the capitalization of other crypto-currencies has begun to exceed Bitcoin’s capitalization. If you believe that Bitcoin will maintain its dominance over other individual crypto-currencies and eventually become widely accepted, then there is every reason to believe that a Bitcoin is worth at least $1,600 right now. If this is true, then Bitcoin might be overbought and due a substantial correction, but it could not be said to be in a bubble comparable to Tulip Mania or the first British joint stock companies of the 17th century. This case also supports Bitcoin as an attractive medium to long-term investment."
  • "If you are trading Bitcoin with a short-term time horizon, keep position sizing very small, as volatility is dramatically high. The 30-day ATR (Average True Range) has more than tripled over the past 6 weeks. Although the chart still looks quite bullish technically, we might already see the beginning of a major first lower high just above $2,600. It can also be expected that there will be support at $2,000 and within the area just below that price. A major correction should be expected, as in a huge appreciation of any asset when people who know nothing about it are starting to buy it. Long-term investors would probably do well to wait a while before buying at least part of their intended position, ideally to a level below $2,000 or, even better, $1,600."


Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev  

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.02 07:37

Bitcoin has left stocks, bonds, and gold in the dust in the first half of 2017 (based on the article)


Weekly price is testing 2,998 resistance level to above for the bullish breakout to be continuing. Alternative, if the price breaks 1,971 support to below so we may see the secondary correction to be started within the primary bullish market condition.

By the way, 1,971 is the daily bearish reversal level so if the price breaks this level to below on daily chart  the daily bearish reversal will be started.

  • "The Bitcoin Investment Trust Shares have soared 220.59%, while the S&P 500 and SPDR Gold shares rose in upper single digits; and all three investments outperformed the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond, which gained a modest 6.13 percent."
  • "Apparently, the ongoing run up in Bitcoin and other digital currencies has most of the elements of a bubble. It’s an exotic asset that comes with big advantages—a better hedge against global uncertainties than conventional hedges like gold; a convenient medium of payment around the globe; and a limited supply--21 million."

Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.06 10:25

Bitcoin and tesla Investors is in a bubble territory (based on the article)

Bitcoin/US Dollar - daily price is located above the Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart. The price is on ranging within 2,998 bullish continuation resistance level and 2,047 bearish reversal support level. If the price breaks 2,633 resistance to above so we may see the bext target at 2,998 with the good possibility to the bullish trend to be resumed. If the price breaks 2.255 support to below so the support at 2.047 will be the next target leading to the daily bearish reversal.


  • "Bitcoin and Tesla have turned scores of investors who bought early into these investments into millionaires. But these investors can lose their millions faster than they made them, and then sum, if the market momentum turns in the wrong direction. That’s what usually happens to many investors who decide with the emotional side rather than the rational side of their brains—including Sir Isaac Newton, who lost a small fortune in South Sea Bubble."
  • "To be fair, it isn’t known whether an asset is in a bubble territory until the bubble bursts and investors lose a great deal of money.  What’s known is that bubbles usually burst following four Fed interest rate hikes. At least that's what set the stage for the burst of the dot.com bubble back in the early 2000s."
  • "The good news for Tesla and Bitcoin investors is that the Fed isn't there yet. This means that even if there's a bubble, it's in the “sweet spot.” That's usually the time between the first and the fourth interest rate hike. During this time, the impact of a stronger economy on earnings is greater than its impact on interest rates, fueling strong momentum for speculative assets."


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Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.17 08:55

BitCoin - daily breakdown with the bearish reversal (based on the article)

Daily price broke Ichimoku cloud together with descending triangle pattern with 2,154 support level to below to be reversed to the primary ebarish market condition with the nearest weekly target at 1,849 Fibo support level.


  • "Highlighting the uptick in the space, over $1.4 billion (bn) has been invested in blockchain technology in just three short years according to a report from the World Economic Forum. And, quite incredibly it has been projected that by 2027 around 10% of global gross domestic product (GDP) will be stored on blockchain platforms."
  • "The cryptocurrency market still proves to be quite volatile which definitely creates opportunity for money to be made,” adds McCaffrey. “But trading is the hard way to make money in every market. Getting in the market ahead of the crowd, and getting out when the IPO or the ICO makes its market debut is the easy way."


Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.20 15:42

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, USD/JPY, Dollar Index and Bitcoin/USD: Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey

2017-07-20 13:30 GMT | [USD - Philly Fed Manufacturing Index]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Philly Fed Manufacturing Index] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed manufacturers in Philadelphia.

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From official report :

  • "The index for current manufacturing activity in the region decreased from a reading of 27.6 in June to 19.5 this month (see Chart 1). The index has been positive for 12 consecutive months, but July’s reading is the lowest since November. Thirty-seven percent of the firms indicated increases in activity in July, down from 42 percent last month. The shipments index decreased 16 points, while the new orders index fell 24 points. Nearly 31 percent of the respondents reported a rise in new orders this month, down from 45 percent in June. Both the delivery times and unfilled orders indexes were positive for the ninth consecutive month, suggesting longer delivery times and increases in unfilled orders."
  • "Firms reported overall increases in manufacturing employment this month, but the current employment index fell 5 points. The index has been positive for eight consecutive months. The percentage of firms reporting an increase in employment was 17 percent, while 6 percent reported a decrease. The average workweek index has been positive for nine consecutive months but decreased 17 points."

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Dollar Index M5: range price movement by Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey news events


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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey news events


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USD/JPY M5: range price movement by Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey news events


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BTC/USD M5: range price movement by Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey news events



Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev  

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.31 08:31

How to invest in bitcoin (based on the article)

Daily price is on bullish ranging above Ichimoku cloud within the following support/resistance levels:

  • 2,998 resistance located far above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart, and
  • 2,213 support level located in the beginning of the bearish trend to be started.

Symmetric triangle pattern was formed by the price to be crossed to above for the bullish trend to be resumed or to below for the bearish reversal.


  • "More and more Forex brokers are offering trading in Bitcoin, and a few are also offering other crypto-currencies. This means a possible solution is to open an account with one such broker and simply buy some Bitcoin and sit tight while your investment hopefully appreciates. Opening an account with a Forex broker is usually a relatively painless process and you don’t have to worry about owning the Bitcoins or other crypto-currency. You just have a position with the broker, and many brokers will allow you to open an account with a minimum deposit of $100 or less. They also offer leverage, which means that you can take a position bigger than your deposit. This brokerage route sounds like a simple solution, but there are two problems that probably make it a potentially poor proposition."
  • "Some assets are problematic to own as they incur storage costs and other issues, commodities such as crude oil, natural gas, and gold bullion being good examples. So why not buy shares in a fund which owns crypto-currency, giving you an exchangeable and easily ownable asset derived from the value of the crypto-currency you wish to invest in? The main reason why it might not be a good idea is that shares in these crypto-currency funds tend to trade at strong premiums to their underlying value because there is such heavy demand for the shares. For example, a fund owning $100 million of Bitcoin valued at the current market price might have 1 million paid-up shares trading at $150 each. If you buy one of these shares, you are paying 50% over their true value, and if the market were to cool off suddenly, you would find yourself down by 33% on your investment very quickly. Another concern with investing in a fund is the question of regulation and fraud, similar to the issue concerning Forex brokers."
  • "Before making any investment in a crypto-currency, please do your own thorough research into whether it is an attractive investment that can meet your long-term financial goals. Take care not to be panicked into buying in a hurry before you have thought it through."


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
98303
Sergey Golubev  

Daily price is on bullish ranging above Ichimoku cloud within the following support/resistance levels:

  • 2,998 resistance located far above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart, and
  • 2,213 support level located in the beginning of the bearish trend to be started.
Symmetric triangle pattern was formed by the price to be crossed to above for the bullish trend to be resumed or to below for the bearish reversal.


Seems, the price is crossing symmetric trianglew pattern to below with 2,400 and 2,213 is the nearest bearish reversal target in the near future.

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
98303
Sergey Golubev  


And as we see from the chart above - the price is already rreversing to the primary bearish market condition on intra-day H1 timeframe ...
Global bearish breakdown?

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