Press review - page 541

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for GBP/USD (based on the article)

GBP/USD - "The Bank of England’s monetary policy committee will likely leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.25% Thursday and make no changes to either its £435 billion asset-purchase program or its £10 billion corporate-bond buying. However, the meeting could still have an impact on GBP/USD and EUR/GBP."

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for AUD/USD (based on the article)

AUD/USD - "Even though the RBA is widely expected to keep the official cash rate at the record-low of 1.50%, the accompanying statement may boost the appeal of the Australian dollar if the central bank shows a greater willingness to move away from its easing-cycle. The RBA may highlight a hawkish outlook as the ‘Australian economy is expected to strengthen gradually, with the transition to lower levels of mining investment following the mining investment boom almost complete,’ and Governor Lowe and Co. may start to prepare Australian households and businesses for higher borrowing-costsas ‘the data available for the June quarter had generally been positive.’"

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for USD/CNY (based on the article)

USD/CNY - "China announced the strategy for the economic work in the second half of 2017, after top leaders met at the Political Bureau meeting of the Communist Part of China on Monday: The country will stick to the goal of “seeking progress while maintaining stability”. In terms of policies, China will continue to implement “proactive fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy”. This indicates that the PBOC is neither likely to raise benchmark interest rate nor cut it in the following two quarters."

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for GOLD (XAU/USD) (based on the article)

XAU/USD - "Looking ahead to next week, markets will be closely eyeing central bank interest rate decisions from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) & the Bank of England (BOE) with the highly anticipated U.S. Non-Farm Payroll report slated for Friday. While the broader outlook for bullion remains constructive, prices are eyeing near-term resistance heading into the close of the month and could limit the topside near-term."

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Brent Crude Oil (based on the article)

Brent Crude Oil - "You know how in some weeks, everything goes well? This week was a week like no other for Crude Bulls as trading started with news out of St. Petersburg that OPEC had reached a further agreement to cut exports from Saudi Arabia (the de-facto head of OPEC), the U.A.E. and Kuwait. Saudi also said they would look to ‘forcefully demand participation’ of compliance to the production curb deal that has been extended to March 2018. After briefly punching below Friday’s low on Monday morning, Crude Oil closed the trading day higher consecutively for the rest of the week until settling near $50/bbl. The total gain was nearly 9% on the week and the environment and sentiment picture (more below) seem to point to more gains to come. What a difference a week can make!"

[Sergey Golubev]

How to invest in bitcoin (based on the article)

Daily price is on bullish ranging above Ichimoku cloud within the following support/resistance levels:

• 2,998 resistance located far above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart, and
• 2,213 support level located in the beginning of the bearish trend to be started.

Symmetric triangle pattern was formed by the price to be crossed to above for the bullish trend to be resumed or to below for the bearish reversal.

• "More and more Forex brokers are offering trading in Bitcoin, and a few are also offering other crypto-currencies. This means a possible solution is to open an account with one such broker and simply buy some Bitcoin and sit tight while your investment hopefully appreciates. Opening an account with a Forex broker is usually a relatively painless process and you don’t have to worry about owning the Bitcoins or other crypto-currency. You just have a position with the broker, and many brokers will allow you to open an account with a minimum deposit of $100 or less. They also offer leverage, which means that you can take a position bigger than your deposit. This brokerage route sounds like a simple solution, but there are two problems that probably make it a potentially poor proposition."
• "Some assets are problematic to own as they incur storage costs and other issues, commodities such as crude oil, natural gas, and gold bullion being good examples. So why not buy shares in a fund which owns crypto-currency, giving you an exchangeable and easily ownable asset derived from the value of the crypto-currency you wish to invest in? The main reason why it might not be a good idea is that shares in these crypto-currency funds tend to trade at strong premiums to their underlying value because there is such heavy demand for the shares. For example, a fund owning $100 million of Bitcoin valued at the current market price might have 1 million paid-up shares trading at $150 each. If you buy one of these shares, you are paying 50% over their true value, and if the market were to cool off suddenly, you would find yourself down by 33% on your investment very quickly. Another concern with investing in a fund is the question of regulation and fraud, similar to the issue concerning Forex brokers."
• "Before making any investment in a crypto-currency, please do your own thorough research into whether it is an attractive investment that can meet your long-term financial goals. Take care not to be panicked into buying in a hurry before you have thought it through."

[Sergey Golubev]

Nikkei 225 - narrow ranging within the bullish waiting for the direction (based on the article)

The price on weekly chart is located above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart for the narrow ranging within the 20,315 resistance for the bullish trend to be resumed and 18.190 support level for the bearish reversal to be started.

• "The Nikkei 225 (19,959.84 on July 28) remains shy of its June 24, 2015 multiyear intraday high of 20,952.71. The weekly chart remains positive but overbought with the five-week modified moving average of 19,946.70. The 12x3x3 weekly slow stochastic reading is just above the overbought threshold of 80.00 at 81.75. If this week’s close is below 19,946.70, the weekly chart will be downgraded to negative. Buy weakness to my quarterly value level of 16,052.44. My annual pivot of 20,169.42 will remain a drag or magnet for the remainder of 2017. Reduce holdings on strength to my semiannual risky levels of 21,619.72."

[Sergey Golubev]

Dow Jones Industrial Average - bullish breakout; 21,914 is the key (based on the article)

The price on monthly chart is located above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart. The price is breaking 21,535 resistance level to above together with ascending triangle pattern with 21,914 resistance level to be broken for the bullish breakout to be continuing.

• "The Dow Jones Industrial Average (21,830.31 on July 28) set an all-time intraday high of 21,841.18 on July 28, and has a positive but overbought weekly chart. The five-week modified moving average is 21,452 with the 12x3x3 weekly slow stochastic reading above the overbought threshold of 80.00 at 91.63. Buy weakness to my quarterly value level of 20,327. Reduce holdings on strength to my weekly, annual and semiannual risky levels of 21,916, 22,041 and 22,127, respectively."

[Sergey Golubev]

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Cash Rate, Reserve Bank of Australia Statement and range price movement 

2017-08-01 05:30 GMT | [AUD - Cash Rate]

• past data is 1.50%
• forecast data is 1.50%
• actual data is 1.50% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Cash Rate] = Interest rate charged on overnight loans between financial intermediaries. 

==========

From official report :

• "At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.50 per cent."
• "The low level of interest rates is continuing to support the Australian economy. Taking account of the available information, the Board judged that holding the stance of monetary policy unchanged at this meeting would be consistent with sustainable growth in the economy and achieving the inflation target over time."

==========

AUD/USD M5: range price movement by RBA Cash Rate news event 

[Sergey Golubev]

EUR/USD - bullish breakout; 1.1844 is the key (based on the article)

Intra-day price on H4 chart is on bullish breakout by the ascending triangle pattern to be crossing to above together with 1.1844 resistance level for the bullish trend to be continuing. If the price breaks 1.1722 support to below so we may see the secondary correction, and 1.1612 support level is for the primary bearish erversal to be started.

• "Retail trader data shows 25.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 2.96 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.06707; price has moved 10.5% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 10.7% higher than yesterday and 14.8% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 1.4% higher than yesterday and 6.3% lower from last week."