Forecast for Q1'17 - levels for Dollar Index - page 3

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.03.04 11:32

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Dollar Index (based on the article)


Dollar Index - "For general sentiment next week, it is important to appreciate that global monetary policy – between extreme accommodation for access to cheap funds to normalization as a showing of optimism for the economy – has proven an ineffective motivator. Far more prominent is the still vague outlook for global trade policy. This past week, US President Donald Trump revived his references to tax reform and a $1 trillion stimulus program at his address to the joint session of Congress. Mere mention of these programs in the past led to weeks’ long advance in capital markets for significant traction. The half-life and ultimate reach of this most recent update was a day and comparably limited. Keeping close tabs on the President’s social media accounts is advisable for those that want to maintain a cautious posture on the market."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.03.08 08:29

Dollar Index: daily bullish reversal (based on the article)

Daily price broke Ichimoku cloud for the bullish reversal: the price is on testing 102.26 resistance level for the bullish trend to be continuing, otherwise - ranging.


  • "DXY continues to trade on parallels that are defined by the 2016 support line (from the May low). The yearly opening price is 102.38 and could influence for a reaction. I’d also pay attention to 100.39 (March 2015 high…here we are 2 years later by the way at the same level!) for support. A break through one of these levels ideally offers something to work with from a trend perspective."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.03.09 16:47

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, NZD/USD and Dollar Index: U.S. Jobless Claims

2017-03-09 13:30 GMT | [USD - Unemployment Claims]

  • past data is 223K
  • forecast data is 239K
  • actual data is 243K according to the latest press release

if actual < forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Unemployment Claims] = The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week.

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From business-standard article:

  • "The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits last week rebounded from a near 44-year low, but the labor market continues to tighten amid a sharp drop in job cuts in February."
  • "Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose 20,000 to a seasonally adjusted 243,000 for the week ended March 4, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Claims for the prior week were unrevised at 223,000, the lowest level since March 1973."

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Dollar Index M5: range price movement by U.S. Jobless Claims news events


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USD/JPY M5: 44 pips range price movement by U.S. Jobless Claims news events



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Sergey Golubev, 2017.03.10 08:53

Dollar Index Ahead of NFP (adapted from the article)

Dollar Index H4 chart. The price is located above 200 SMA in the bullish area for the ranging within 102.24/101.70 support/resistance levels waiting for the bullish trend to be resuned or for the secondary correction to be started. Stoch indicator/s value is showing overbought market condition so we are forecasting 2 main scenarios for the intra-day price movement during/after NPF:

  • breakout: the price will break resistance level to above on quick sudden movement  for the bullish trend to be resumed, or
  • c‌orrection: the price will breaks 101.70 support level to below on usual slowly way for the correctional trend to be started.


  • "The Dollar Index is the simplified approach to judging the strength of the world’s reserve currency. However, looking simply at the DXY to analyze USD strength would be a short-sighted given the recent dynamics in the market. Over the last week we’ve seen the USD swing into strength most notably against currency pairs that do not make up large weights in the DXY."
  • "The DXY is weighted heavily in favor of Euro (57.6%), followed by Japanese Yen (13.6%), British Pound (11.9%), Canadian Dollar (9.1%), Swedish Krona (4.2%), and Swiss Franc (3.6%). The most dominant strength in March has been seen in a handful of these components of DXY, such as the Canadian Dollar. The real strength can be seen in other commodity currencies, hence the drop in Oil like the Australian and New Zealand Dollar, Norwegian Krone, and a handful of Emerging Market Currencies."
  • "This week, a strong bump at the front-end of the UST yield curve, notably 2’s has aligned with the view that the Fed has the engine started and the gas tank filled in anticipation of a long cycle of hiking rates toward normalization. Friday’s Non-Farm Payroll is only expected to add to the conviction of multiple rate hikes to come starting with one at the March 15 FOMC. The stronger USD may continue to build pressure against commodities linked to the price of Oil, which recently settled below $50/bbl for the first time in 2017."


 

Dollar Index H12 timeframe: the price is located above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart with the bullish retracement pattern to be forming for the bullish trend to be resumed. The price is going to be bounced from 200 SMA and Senkou Span line (which is the virtual border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend) with 102.27 bullish intra-day target. Alternative, the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels.

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.03.11 16:30

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Dollar Index (based on the article)


Dollar Index - "Markets are forward looking and speculatively motivated. This is where the ‘buy the rumor, sell the news’ saying originates. We should consider this heavy skew heading into the new trading week. We may consider the Fed decision a far more influential event relative to the NFPs, but financial media prominence does not change the interpretation the market will make of the news. A rate hike alone is already expected. Furthermore, we can tell from rates markets that there is considerable speculation of a further two to three hikes through the rest of the year. While it is possible to further shift expectations towards four hikes in 2017 – which is not fully appreciated – the need for conviction is high and the traction it would offer is comparably marginal. Where the Dollar still has the advantage on growth and yield potential, its premium doesn’t seem to be growing. It may in fact be shrinking. Unless full-scale risk aversion revives the USD’s appeal as an absolute haven, its unchallenged bull trend may be challenged."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.03.14 16:14

Intra-Day Fundamentals - Dollar Index, Bitcoin/USD and Gold (XAU/USD): U.S. Producer Price Index

2017-03-14 12:30 GMT | [USD - PPI]

  • past data is 0.6%
  • forecast data is 0.1%
  • actual data is 0.3% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - PPI] = Change in the price of finished goods and services sold by producers.

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From official report:

  • "The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.3 percent in February, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices rose 0.6 percent in January and 0.2 percent in December. On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index climbed 2.2 percent for the 12 months ended February 2017, the largest advance since a 2.4-percent increase in the 12 months ended March 2012."
  • "In February, over 80 percent of the advance in the final demand index is attributable to a 0.4-percent increase in prices for final demand services. The index for final demand goods moved up 0.3 percent."

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Dollar Index M5: range price movement by U.S. Producer Price Index news events


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Bitcoin/USD M5: range price movement by U.S. Producer Price Index news events


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Gold (XAU/USD) M5: range price movement by U.S. Producer Price Index news events



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.03.17 09:30

Dollar Index - daily bearish breakdown with key support levels to be broken on the way (based on the article)

Daily price broke Ichimoku cloud to below for the bearish reversal with 100.04 support level to be testing for the bearish trend to be continuing. The next bearish continuation level for Dollar Index are 99.59 and 99.18, thus if the price is going to break those support levels to below so the bearish breakdown will be continuing. Otherwise - ranging within the levels.


  • "DXY continues to trade on parallels that are defined by the 2016 support line (from the May low). The yearly opening price is 102.38 and could influence for a reaction. I’d also pay attention to 100.39 (March 2015 high…here we are 2 years later by the way…basically unchanged!) for support. A break through one of these levels ideally offers something to work with from a trend perspective."
  • "Decision time as DXY is trading 100.39! A weekly close below the level would suggest that the path is lower."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.03.18 14:24

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Dollar Index (based on the article)


Dollar Index - "The week ahead is thin on top-tier data flow, putting the spotlight on a packed docket of scheduled commentary from Fed officials. Comments from Chair Yellen and Neel Kashkari – the President of the central bank’s Minneapolis branch that dissented from the decision to raise rates last week – are likely to take top billing. Besides that, seven other Fed policymakers are due to speak. Fiscal policy remains a wildcard however. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin is making his international debut at a meeting of G20 finance ministers and central bank heads in Germany. A draft communique from the sit-down that surfaced Friday was relatively tame but the heretofore ubiquitous opposition to protectionism was absent. The final message after the meeting ends on Saturday may yet unnerve the markets."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.03.22 10:32

Dollar Index: support levels at 99.46/99.18 to be broken for the correction to be continuing (based on the article)

Daily price is located below 100-day SMA and above 200-day SMA in the ranging bullish area of the chart. Price is testing descending triangle pattern together with support level at 99.46 and 99.18 to below for the secondary correction to be continuing.


  • "DXY continues to trade on parallels that are defined by the 2016 support line (from the May low). The yearly opening price is 102.38 and could influence for a reaction. I’d also pay attention to 100.39 (March 2015 high…here we are 2 years later by the way…basically unchanged!) for support. A break through one of these levels ideally offers something to work with from a trend perspective."
  • "DXY has broken 100.39 so focus is on the trendline (originates at May 2016 low) and 200 day average just below 99.00. If that breaks, then DXY is a full-fledged bear."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.03.25 08:45

Weekly Outlook: 2017, March 26 - April 02 (based on the article)

German Ifo Business Climate, US CB Consumer Confidence, Stephen Poloz speech US Crude Oil Inventories, Unemployment claims, GDP data from the US and Canada are the main events on forex calendar.


  1. German Ifo Business Climate: Monday, 8:00. German business confidence is expected to rise further to 111.2 in March.
  2. US CB Consumer Confidence: Tuesday, 14:00. Consumer confidence is estimated to reach 113.9 this time.
  3. Stephen Poloz speaks: Tuesday, 15:10. Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz will speak in Oshawa.
  4. US Crude Oil Inventories: Wednesday, 14:30.
  5. US GDP data: Thursday, 12:30. The Federal Reserve projects a growth rate of around 2% in the next few years.
  6. US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 12:30. Economists expected an increase of 240,000 claims.
  7. Canadian GDP: Friday, 12:30.

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