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Forecast for Q3'16 - levels for Brent Crude Oil
Sergey Golubev, 2016.07.20 16:43
U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories
news event: bullish ranging above bearish reversal
2016-07-20 14:30 GMT | [USD - Crude Oil Inventories]
[USD - Crude Oil Inventories] = Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week.
commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic
Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 2.3 million barrels from the previous
Crude Oil M5: breaking 200 SMA for the bullish reversal.
The price is testing 200 SMA to above for the reversal to the primary bullish market condition.
Trading News Events: European Central Bank (ECB) Interest Rate Decision (adapted from the article)
2016-07-21 11:45 GMT | [EUR - Minimum Bid Rate]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for EUR in our case)
[EUR - Minimum Bid Rate] = Interest rate on the main refinancing operations that provide the bulk of liquidity to the banking system.
Why Is This Event Important:
"With the U.K.’s imminent exit from the European Union (EU) clouding the
economic outlook for the monetary union, ECB President Mario Draghi may
take additional steps to insulate the euro-area, and the Governing
Council may extend the duration as well as the scope of its quantitative
easing (QE) program in an effort to encourage a stronger recovery."
EUR/USD H1: ranging inside Ichimoku cloud for direction.
The price is located inside Ichimoku cloud for the ranging condition within the following key reversal support/resistance levels:
EUR/USD M5: 12 pips price movement by European Central Bank (ECB) Interest Rate news event
GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.K. Retail Sales and and 52 pips price movement
2016-07-21 08:30 GMT | [GBP - Retail Sales]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)
[GBP - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level.
GBP/USD M5: 52 pips price movement by U.K. Retail Sales news event
EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey and and 42 pips price movement
2016-07-21 12:30 GMT | [USD - Philly Fed Manufacturing Index]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)
[USD - Philly Fed Manufacturing Index] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed manufacturers in Philadelphia.
"The survey’s broadest measure of manufacturing conditions, the diffusion
index of current activity, fell from 4.7 in June to -2.9 this month.
For nine of the past 11 months, this diffusion index has been negative
(see Chart 1). Twenty-two percent of the firms reported an increase in
activity, 3 points lower than last month, and the percent of firms that
reported decreases rose from 20 to 25. Fifty-one percent of the firms
reported steady activity this month, similar to the share that reported
steady activity last month."
EUR/USD M5: 42 pips price movement by Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey news event
Introduction to Technical Indicators - Oscillators: RSI, Stochastics, CCI, MACD (based on the article)
Oscillators give traders an idea of how momentum is developing on a
specific currency pair. When price treks higher, oscillators will move
higher. When price drops lower, oscillators will move lower. Whenever
oscillators reach an extreme level, it might be time to look for price
to turn back around to the mean. However, just because an oscillator
reaches “Overbought” or “Oversold” levels doesn’t mean we should try to
call a top or a bottom. Oscillators can stay at extreme levels for a
long time, so we need to wait for a valid sign before trading.
The Relative Strength Index is arguably the most popular oscillator out
there. A big component of its formula is the ratio between the average
gain and average loss over the last 14 periods. The RSI is bound between
0 – 100 and is considered overbought above 70 and oversold when below
30. Traders generally look to sell when 70 is crossed from above and
look to buy when 30 is crossed from below.
StochasticsStochastics offer traders a different approach to calculate price
oscillations by tracking how far the current price is from the lowest
low of the last X number of periods. This distance is then divided by
the difference between the high and low price during the same number of
periods. The line created, %K, is then used to create a moving average,
%D, that is placed directly on top of the %K. The result is two lines
moving between 0-100 with overbought and oversold levels at 80 and 20.
Traders can wait for the two lines to crosses while in overbought or
oversold territories or they can look for divergence between the
stochastic and the actual price before placing a trade.
The Commodity Channel Index is different than many oscillators in that
there is no limit to how high or how low it can go. It uses 0 as a
centerline with overbought and oversold levels starting at +100 and
-100. Traders look to sell breaks below +100 and buy breaks above -100.
MACDThe Moving Average Convergence/Divergence tracks the difference between
two EMA lines, the 12 EMA and 26 EMA. The difference between the two
EMAs is then drawn on a sub-chart (called the MACD line) with a 9 EMA
drawn directly on top of it (called the Signal line). Traders then look
to buy when the MACD line crosses above the signal line and look to sell
when the MACD line crosses below the signal line. There are also
opportunities to trade divergence between the MACD and price.
Introduction to Technical Indicators - Trend Following: Moving Averages, Ichimoku, ADX (based on the article)
Trend following indicators were created to help traders trade currency
pairs that are trending up or trending down. We have all heard the
phrase “the trend is your friend.” These indicators can help point out
the direction of the trend and can tell us if a trend actually exists.
A Moving Average (MA for short) is a technical tool that averages a
currency pair’s price over a period of time. The smoothing effect this
has on the chart helps give a clearer indication on what direction the
pair is moving either up, down, or sideways. There are a variety of
moving averages to choose from. Simple Moving Averages and Exponential
Moving Averages are by far the most popular.
Ichimoku is a complicated looking trend assistant that turns out to be
much simpler than it initially appears. This Japanese indicator was
created to be a standalone indicator that shows current trends, displays
support/resistance levels, and indicates when a trend has likely
reversed. Ichimoku roughly translates to “one glance” since it is meant
to be a quick way to see how price is behaving on a chart.
ADXThe Average Direction Index takes a different method when it comes to
analyzing trends. It won’t tell you whether price is trending up or
down, but it will tell you if price is trending or is ranging. This
makes it the perfect filter for either a range or trend strategy by
making sure you are trading based on current market conditions.
AUD/USD Intra-Day Technical Analysis - bearish ranging within narrow levels (adapted from the article)
is located below 100 SMA/200 SMA reversal in the primary bearish area of the chart. The price is on ranging within key support/resistance levels waiting for direction.
SUMMARY : ranging
Technical Targets for EUR/USD by United Overseas Bank (based on the article)
is located below Ichimoku in the primary bearish area of the chart:
price is on ranging within the following narrow support/resistance
Strength indicator together with Chinkou Span line are estimating the
bear market rally to be started on the secondary ranging way.
price. United Overseas Bank is considering for EUR/USD for the bearish market condition to be continuing with 1.0905/10 and 1.0820 levels as a possible daily target:
"While downward momentum has improved, only a daily closing below 1.1095
would indicate that a move towards 1.0905/10, 1.0820 has started. This
scenario still seems likely unless EUR can move back above 1.1120 from
here (1.1060 is already a strong short-term resistance)."
Technical Targets for AUD/USD by United Overseas Bank (based on the article)
is below Ichimoku for the bearish market condition with the ranging within the following key narrow s/r levels:
Strength indicator is estimating the
ranging market condition in the near future.
price. United Overseas Bank is expecting for this pair to be more bearish:
"The price action is line with our expectation but the down-move has been
more rapid than expected and a clear break below 0.7445 would greatly
increase the odds for further decline to 0.7400, possibly to 0.7330.
Overall, this pair is expected to stay under pressure unless it can
reclaim 0.7560. On a shorter-term note, 0.7530 is already a strong
Trading News Events: Canada Consumer Price Index (adapted from the article)
2016-07-22 12:30 GMT | [CAD - CPI core]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CAD in our case)
[CAD - CPI core] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding the 8 most volatile items.
Why Is This Event Important:
"Even though BoC Governor Stephen Poloz largely endorses a wait-and-see
approach for monetary policy, the central bank may keep the door open to
further reduce the benchmark interest rate as the Canadian economy
continues to adjust to the oil-price shock."
USD/CAD H1: bullish ranging for correction.
The price is located above Ichimoku cloud for the ranging
within the following support/resistance levels:
If the price breaks 1.3083 support level to below on close H1
bar so the local downtrend as the secondary correction within the primary bullish trend will be started.If the price breaks 1.3139
resistance to above on close H1 bar so the bullish trend will be continuing.If not so the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels.
USD/CAD M5: 37 pips range price movement by Canada Consumer Price Index news event