“If everyone told the truth, the stock market would not move”
Technical Targets for EUR/USD by United Overseas Bank (based on the article)
EUR/USD: bearish breakdown
is on bearish condition with the secondary ranging: the price is located below 200 SMA in the primary bearish area of the chart with the ranging within 1.1426 "bullish reversal" resistance level and 1.0911 "bearish continuation" level.
the price breaks 1.1426 level to above so the intra-day bullish
reversal will be started, and if the price breaks 1.0911 level to below
bearish trend will be continuing.
Daily price broke 200 SMA to below to be reversed to the primary bearish condition. Symmetric triangle pattern was broken to below with 1.0911 level to be tested for the bearish trend to be continuing in the near future.
United Overseas Bank is considering the EUR/USD price to be on bearish market condition with 1.0820 target:"There is no change to the bearish EUR view; the current movement is
viewed as a short-term consolidation phase which should lead to further
EUR weakness towards 1.0820 in the coming days."
Technical Targets for NZD/USD by United Overseas Bank (based on the article)
NZD/USD: intra-day ranging bullish; daily correction to be started
is on bullish market condition for the ranging within 0.7289 resistance and 0.6970 support levels. The Brexit breakdown dropped the price to 0.6970 bearish reversal level with the price to be started for the ranging near 200 SMA revesal area.
the price breaks 0.7289 level to above so the intra-day bullish
trend will be continuing, and if the price breaks 0.6970 level to below
bearish reversal will be started.
Daily price is on secondary correction within the primary bullish condition: the price is testing 0.6970 support level to below for the correction to be continuing.
United Overseas Bank is considering the NZD/USD price to be on ranging within 0.6975/0.7170 levels:"The pull-back from last Friday’s 0.7305 high is picking up momentum but
only a clear break below 0.6975 would indicate that NZD is ready to head
lower towards 0.6920 and beyond. In the meanwhile, we hold a neutral
view but unless this pair can reclaim 0.7170, the downside risk would
continue to increase."
Technical Targets for AUD/USD by United Overseas Bank (based on the article)
AUD/USD: ranging within narrow s/r levels for direction
is located within 100 SMA/200 SMA reversal area waiting for the direction of the trend to be started.If
the price breaks 0.7422 resistance level to above so the intra-day bullish
trend will be resumed, and if the price breaks 0.7304 support to below
bearish reversal will be started.
Daily price is on ranging within 100 SMA/200 SMA area within 0.7642 "bullish continuation" resistance level and 0.7304 "bearish reversal" support level. Descending triangle pattern was formed by the daily price to be crossed to below for the bearish reversal to be started.
United Overseas Bank is considering the AUD/USD price to be on ranging within 0.7305/0.7510 levels:"While the pull-back from last Friday’s 0.7650 peak is picking up
momentum, only a drop below 0.7305 support would indicate a sustained
AUD weakness in the coming days. For now, we hold a neutral view and
expect this pair to trade within 0.7305/0.7510 range. That said,
downward pressure would continue to increase unless there is a move back
above 0.7510 within these few days."
Brexit - how will central banks respond? (based on the article)
Bank of England"Some believe rates could be cut as early as next week, however others think the BoE will wait."
US Federal Reserve"The US Federal Reserve began the year expecting to raise interest
rates at least four times. The bond market expects no tightening this
year and as a result of Brexit has begun to price in a small chance of
an easing for 2016. The US two-year note yield has fallen to about 0.60
per cent, a level seen last October, before the Fed’s first tightening
of policy for the current cycle. The recent dollar appreciation “represents in itself a form of
monetary tightening and consequently the need for [the] Fed to raise
rates has been pushed out further."
European Central Bank"Mr Draghi is expected to cut interest rates further, or could expand QE
in value or scope. However, his calls for structural reform are
difficult as governments do not have strong mandates and many eurozone
countries are facing elections."
Bank of Japan"Brexit has fuelled expectations the BoJ will ease policy at its meeting
in late July. They could cut negative interest rates further or apply
them more broadly, but since being introduced in January, the BoJ’s Nirp
has hurt banks - share prices are down more than a third this year.
Expanding the massive and complex QE programme is another option."
People’s Bank of China"The PBoC reacted to Brexit by adjusting the renminbi fix rate
on Monday by the most since 2010 - a big move which "if done in
isolation would have freaked markets out. They want the market to determine the exchange rate on a
managed basis because they don’t want the outflows to become acute", says Geoff Yu of UBS Asset
U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories
news event: intra-day bullish breakout; ranging bullish on daily
2016-05-29 14:30 GMT | [USD - Crude Oil Inventories]
[USD - Crude Oil Inventories] = Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week.
commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic
Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 4.1 million barrels from the previous
Crude Oil M5: intra-day bullish breakout. The price broke 100 SMA to above on Pending Home Sales news event to be reversed from the ranging bullish market condition to the primary bullish. The price is started with the bullish breakout immediate after Crude Oil Inventories news event with 49.73 resistance level to be tested for the bullish trend to be continuing.
If the price breaks 52.82 resistance on close daily bar so the primary bullish trend will be continuing.if the price breaks 46.67
support level on close daily bar so the local downtrend as a secondary
correction within the primary bullish trend will be started.If not so the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels.
Trading News Events: Canadian GDP (adapted from the article)
2016-06-30 12:30 GMT | [CAD - GDP]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CAD in our case)
[CAD - GDP] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.
There are 5 possible scenarios related to this news events
USD/CAD H4: correction to be started within the primary bullish. The price is on the secondary correction which is started on open H4 bar for now by 1.2973 support level to be broken to below with Chinkou Span line to be ready to break the price for good possible breakdown.
If the price breaks 1.2973 support level to below on close H4 bar so the secondary correction within the primary bullish condition will be started.If the price breaks Senkou Span line at 1.2887 on close H4 bar so we may see the bearish reversal to be started on this timeframe.If the price breaks 1.3107 resistance to above so the primary bullish trend will be continuing.If not so the price will be continuing with the ranging bullish trend within the levels.
How to Trade - Forex Leverage (based on the article)
Leverage in forex is expressed as ratios - for example as the following: 1:1, 1:50, 1:100, 1:200, 1:400.
Leverage in forex = Purchase Power/Capital Invested
This leverage ratio of 1:100 is translated as following:
For every $1 I deposit in my forex broker's account, my broker in return
deposits $100 in my margin
account. So, if I deposit $1000 then my broker deposits $100,000 in my
trading account. So with just $1000 of my own money, I can control
$100,000 for my trading purposes. By doing so I
created a leverage in forex.
"Leverage has been in use from the early dawn of our civilization
primarily to cope up with daily necessities. In the medieval era
leverage was employed probably just to lift heavy stones to build
houses. But in the modern era leverage has been used extensively in
finance and commerce. When I am buying
one million dollar house with only 10% down payment, I am essentially
using leverage. Leverage adds glamor to forex trading. It is what makes
so many traders gravitate to forex trading as compared
to equities and other securities market."
"Hence, leverage in
forex is the secret behind huge wind fall profits in forex trading. Be
as it may, leverage can magnify losses in losing trades. This is also
why leverage is considered double edged sword. If I make winning trades
then my profits are huge. Likewise if I make losing trades my losses are
USD/CAD Recovers But Still Far From Pre-Brexit Levels (based on the article)
USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Canadian GDP and 18 pips range price movement
USD/CAD M5: 18 pips range price movement by Canadian GDP news event