Fundamental Weekly Forecasts for Dollar Index, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CAD, USD/CNH and GOLD (based on the article)
Dollar Index - "If there is any imbalance in one of these
major regions of the world, it is unlikely that emergent pressures on
the traditional dual mandate will lead the Fed to potentially-risky rate
hikes. On the other hand, if any of these critical areas implode; the
implications for global risk trends could prove a boon for the
Greenback. The Dollar has seen its position as a safe haven intensify
significantly recently with the options for reserve alternatives
diminishing post Brexit (brining the second and third most liquid
reserve currencies – Euro and Pound – down with it). In the event of a sentiment slide that pulls down equity markets like the S&P 500, the need for safe harbor would revive a dormant appetite for the benchmark."
GBP/USD - "In August, the Bank of England will deliver
forecasts and projections along with their rate decision and this could
be a likely time to get a pulse from the bank for monetary policy moving
forward. If the BOE doesn’t cut next week, we will likely see a cut at
this meeting in August. And even if we do get a rate cut next week,
should weakness persist, we may see a second rate cut to zero at this
August meeting. There has even been increasing odds of negative rates
showing up at the BOE’s rate decision in December. And while this may be
a far distance from where we’re at today, the one thing that should be
clear is that the BOE isn’t taking this lightly. In the near-term, this
is a negative for the British Pound as it means that we likely haven’t
seen the end of that ‘sharp re-pricing’ that Mr. Carney had warned us
about two months ago, and the bank likely isn’t done making moves in an
attempt to proactively off-set the risks emanating from Brexit."
USD/JPY - "The Bank of Japan (BoJ) may also stick to the
sidelines and retain its current stance at the next rate decision on
July 29 as the central bank continues to assess the impact of the
negative-interest rate policy (NIRP). Even though the BoJ largely
preserves a dovish outlook for monetary policy, Governor Haruhiko Kuroda and Co. may attempt to buy more time especially as Prime Minister Shinzo Abe delays the sales-tax hike and pledges to take ‘bold’ steps to foster a stronger recovery."
AUD/USD - "Domestic news-flow could limit
sentiment-inspired weakness. June’s Employment report is expected to
show job creation slowed a bit compared with the prior month but
Australian data’s tendency to outperform over the past two months opens
the door for an upside surprise. That may weigh against RBA easing
expectations, although traders still lean in favor of a cut at the next
meeting despite supportive data news-flow."
USD/CAD - "We have heard the Bank of Canada voiced concern over slack in the
job market while being encouraged by his services and non-energy export-led
recovery. Last week’s trade balance and employment report may change
their tone to either a more accommodative stance or at least a lower
rates for longer positioning to help the economy find its footing."
USD/CNH - "The PBOC may continue to guide the Yuan lower
against the US Dollar in the effort of maintaining the Chinese
currency’s relative stability to the currency basket. The probability of
the Bank of England cutting rates by 25bp is 18.2% according to Credit
Suisse. If the British Pound continues to drop, such as it would if
being driven by a rate cut, the PBOC has to devalue the Yuan against the
US Dollar in the effort to evening-out changes in the Yuan basket. Or
else, the PBOC needs to revise its exchange rate target, such as
temporarily re-pegging the Yuan against the US Dollar and loosening
reference to the currency basket. Either move could bring a huge impact
to the Dollar/Yuan rate."
GOLD (XAU/USD) - "Aside from the economic docket, traders will
be lending a keen ear to a fresh batch of central bank rhetoric with
Kansas City Fed President Esther George, Cleveland Fed President Loretta
Mester, Fed Governor Daniel Tarullo, St. Louis Fed President James
Bullard, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, Dallas Fed President
Robert Kaplan, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker and Atlanta Fed
President Dennis Lockhart slated for speeches next week. The release of
the Federal Reserve’s Beige book on Wednesday will also be of interest
as we get the updated assessment on the Fed’s twelve districts. Although
the fundamental story for hasn’t, the technicals point to a massive
resistance confluence which could cap further advances near-term."
Technical Targets for EUR/USD by United Overseas Bank (based on the article)
is located below Ichimoku in the primary bearish area of the chart: price is on ranging within the following narrow support/resistance levels:
Strength indicator together with Chinkou Span line are estimating the
ranging bearish condition to be continuing.
price. United Overseas Bank is considering for EUR/USD with the contuning the primary
bearish market condition to be lower than 1.0820:
"While EUR dropped to 1.0995/00 last Friday (lowest level seen this
month), downward momentum is far from impulsive and it is doubtful that
this pair would accelerate lower from here. However, looking further
ahead, a move to 1.0820 cannot be ruled out just yet as long as 1.1185
is intact. In the meanwhile, further short-term sideway trading above
the recent 1.0909 low seems likely and only a clear break below this
level would indicate that the next bearish leg lower has started."
AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: National Australia Bank Business Confidence and 44 pips price movement
2016-07-12 01:30 GMT | [AUD - NAB Business Confidence]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)
[AUD - NAB Business Confidence] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed businesses, excluding the farming industry.
AUD/USD M5: 44 pips price movement by National Australia Bank Business Confidence news event
Analysts at Goldman Sachs estimated that S&P 500 is expected to fall by 3% year over year, but anyway - the daily price is making new high now at 2,137 by bullish breakout for example:
Foreign Exchange post-Brexit Vote - China's Economy: Between a Rock and a Hard Place (based on the article)
GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: BoE Financial Stability Report speech and 40 pips price movement
2016-07-12 09:00 GMT | [GBP - BoE Gov Carney Speaks]
[GBP - BoE Gov Carney Speaks] = The speech about the Bank of England Financial Stability Report before the Treasury Select Committee, in London.
GBP/USD M5: 40 pips price movement by BoE Financial Stability Report speech news event
How low can sterling go? (review of the article)
There are some forecastings made by some int'l financial institutions related to the GBP/USD pair movement in the long-term situation:
If we look at the weekly chart so we can see that the price is located too far from 100 SMA/200 SMA area for any possible bullish reversal in this year for example. And if the price breaks 1.2794 to below so the bearish trend will be continuing without ranging up to the new bottom to be formed. So, seems, the key level which should be broken by the price is 1.2794.
And it is too early to speak about 1.20 or 1.15 levels for now if the key level at 1.2794 is not yet broken to below.
S&P 500 Short-Term Technical Analysis: watch for key support to be broken for possible sell trade (adapted from the article)
The one hour price is located above 100 period SMA (100 SMA) and 200 period SMA on the bullish area of the chart. The price is breaking 2147.25 resistance level to above for the bullish trend to be continuing.
Alternative, breaking 2119.25 level to below will lead to the secondary correction, and if the price breaks support level at 2065.50 so the bearish reversal will be started.
The 4 hour price is breaking 2147.25 resistance together with ascending triangle pattern to above for the bullish trend to be continuing.
AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment and 17 pips price movement
2016-07-13 00:30 GMT | [AUD - Westpac Consumer Sentiment]
[AUD - Westpac Consumer Sentiment] = Change in the level of a diffusion index based on surveyed consumers.
AUD/USD M5: 17 pips price movement by Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment news event
USD./JPY Intra-Day Fundamentals: Japan Indices of Industrial Production and 29 pips price movement
2016-07-13 04:30 GMT | [JPY - Industrial Production]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for JPY in our case)
[JPY - Industrial Production] = Change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities.
USD./JPY M5: 29 pips price movement by Japan Indices of Industrial Production news event