Press review - page 414

[Sergey Golubev]

Technical Targets for EUR/USD by United Overseas Bank (based on the article)

H4 price is located near and below 200 period SMA (200 SMA) for the bearish ranging near bullish reversal. The price is on ranging within the following key s/r levels:

• 1.1426 resistance level located above 200 SMA in the bullish area of the chart, and
• 1.0911 support level located below 100 SMA/200 SMA reversal on the bearish area.

Bullish reversal level for H4 timeframe is 1.1168, and if the price breaks this level to above so the reversal of the price movement from the ranging bearish to the primary bullish trend will be started

Daily price. United Overseas Bank is considering for EUR/USD to be on the bearish market condition with 1.0813 key support level:

"The current short-term consolidation/correction phase is taking longer than expected as EUR continues to hold above the 1.1095/00 support. Downward momentum is beginning to show signs of slowing but as long as 1.1210 is intact, we are not giving up on our bearish view just yet. That said, the prospect for a sustained down-move has clearly dimmed and EUR has to move and stay below 1.1095 within these couple of days or the risk of an interim low would continue to increase."

• If daily price breaks 1.1168 resistance level on close bar so the bullish reversal will be started.
  
• If daily price breaks 1.0911 support level on close bar so the primary bearish trend will be continuing with 1.0813 level as a possible bearish target.
• If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

[Sergey Golubev]

Technical Targets for GBP/USD by United Overseas Bank (based on the article)

H4 price is located below 200 period SMA (200 SMA) for the bearish area of the chart for the ranging within narrow support/resistance levels:

• 1.3533 resistance level located below 200 SMA in the beginning of the secondary bear market rally to be started, and
• 1.3118 support level located far below 100 SMA/200 SMA in the beginning of the bearish trend to be resumed after ranging.

Daily price. United Overseas Bank is considering for GBP/USD to be on the bearish market condition with 1.3000 key psy support level:

"GBP spent another day trading in a relatively narrow range and the strong downward momentum after Brexit is showing further signs of slowing. That said, another leg lower to the 1.3000 target cannot be ruled out just yet."

• If daily price breaks 1.3533 resistance level on close bar so the local uptrend as a bear market rally will be started.
  
• If daily price breaks 1.3118 support level on close bar so the primary bearish trend will be continuing with 1.3000 level as a possible bearish target.
• If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

[Sergey Golubev]

Brexit: pessimism among British businesses nearly doubled after the June 23rd referendum (based on the article)

The Confederation of Business Industry, the British Chambers of Commerce, the Federation of Small Businesses, the Institute of Directors, and EEF are promosed the immediate action to end the uncertainty facing EU nationals living and working in the country, and progress on long-planned infrastructure projects:

• "Addressing these key issues would be a shot in the arm for business confidence, and send the right signals across the world."
• "This may be a time for calm reflection, but it is not a time for inaction."
• "First, an end to the uncertainty facing EU nationals living and working in the UK. Second, action to progress long-planned infrastructure projects," the letter said. The business groups said decisions on critical infrastructure projects, whether regional or national, must not be delayed due to "Brexit". The government needs to provide clear leadership and immediate action on two fronts."

[Sergey Golubev]

China revises GDP calculation method (based on the article)

• "China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has begun using a new method of calculating GDP that it says "better reflects the contribution of innovation to economic growth."
• "Research and development expenditure that can bring economic benefit to companies will no longer be calculated as intermediate consumption, but as fixed capital formation, the NBS said in a statement."
• "It will use the method for future GDP calculations, and has also recalculated all the figures dating back to 1952."
• "Recorded GDP growth rates have changed slightly as a result. For instance, the growth rate for 2015 remained at 6.9 percent, revised up by 0.04 percentage point."

[Sergey Golubev]

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.S. Factory Orders and 25 pips price movement

2016-07-05 14:00 GMT | [USD - Factory Orders]

• past data is 1.9%
• forecast data is -0.8%
• actual data is -1.0% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Factory Orders] = Change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers.

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U.S. factory orders fall, but unfilled orders increase :

• "New orders for U.S. factory goods fell in May on weak demand for transportation and defense capital goods, but growing order backlogs and lean inventories suggested the worst of the manufacturing downturn was probably over."
• "The Commerce Department said on Tuesday new orders for manufactured goods declined 1.0 percent after two straight months of increases."
• "April's orders were revised slightly down to show a 1.8 percent increase instead of the previously reported 1.9 percent jump. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast factory orders falling 0.9 percent in May."
• "The department also said orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft fell 0.4 percent in May instead of the 0.7 percent drop reported last month. These so-called core capital goods are seen as a measure of business confidence and spending plans on equipment."

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EUR/USD M5: 25 pips price movement by U.S. Factory Orders news event :

[Sergey Golubev]

USD/CAD Technical Analysis - daily bearish ranging near 200-day SMA reversal area (adapted from the article)

Daily price is located near and below SMA with period 200 (200 SMA) in the bearish area of the chart for the ranging within 1.3472 "bullish reversal" resistance level and 1.2654 "bearish continuation" support level:

• "USD/CAD looks to be breaking out of a period of consolidation as the US Dollar’s strength may resume. In such a case, we’d expect to see an aggressive move higher toward the 38.2-61.8% Fibonacci Retracement of the January 20-May 3 Range, which could push USD/CAD up to ~1.3307-1.3832."
• "Therefore, if USD/CAD will resume a Bull-Run, a break above 1.3028/3187 will be the first indication that we could be on our way to multi-100 pip rally. After the trading 1.3187 in late May, the price has found support a few hundred pips lower around ~1.2650."
• "For now, 1.2650 is key support, and until that level is broken, either consolidation or waiting for a breakout higher will remain in focus. Tighter levels of support can be found at the Weekly Pivot at 1.2920 and the 61.8% of the Thursday-Monday range post-Brexit at 1.2845. However, these levels are likely more beneficial for shorter-term that are looking for shorter-term levels for intraday opportunities."
  

If the price will break 1.3472 resistance level so the reversal of the daily price movement to the primary bullish market condition will be started.
If price will break 1.2654 support so the bearish trend will be continuing.
If not so the price will be on bearish ranging within the levels.

Resistance	Support
1.3187	1.2654
1.3472	1.2460

• Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 1.2654 support level for possible sell trade
• Recommendation to go long: watch the price to break 1.3472 resistance level for possible buy trade
• Trading Summary: ranging

SUMMARY : ranging

TREND : bearish

[Sergey Golubev]

Bank of America Merrill Lynch - "We now expect EUR/USD to end 2016 at 1.05" (adapted from the article)

Bank of America Merrill Lynch predicted for EUR/USD price to be around 1.05 by 2016 year end, and at 1.10 by by the end of 2017:
"We revised our projections following the UK referendum. We now expect EUR/USD to end 2016 at 1.05, from 1.08 before, appreciating to 1.10 by the end of 2017, from 1.15 before. These projections will still keep the Euro undervalued, but not substantially, compared with our equilibrium EUR/USD estimate of 1.16. In our view, a much weaker Euro would affect the Fed’s policy reaction function, as the US data remains mixed, recently losing momentum."

If we look at the weekly chart so the price is located on the bearish market condition with the ranging within 1.1455 resistance level and 1.0936 support level. Breaking the resistance at 1.1455 will lead to the ranging bearish condition by the bear market rally up to the possible weekly bullish reversal. Alternative, if the price breaks 1.0936 support to below on close weekly bar so the primary bearish trend will be continuing up to 1.0516 support level as a the end-year bearish target.

Most likely scenario for the long-term price movement for this pair is the following: ranging bearish market condition will be continuing within 1.11/1.05 ranging area.

[Sergey Golubev]

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.S. Trade Balance and 17 pips price movement

2016-07-06 12:30 GMT | [USD - Trade Balance]

• past data is -37.4B
• forecast data is -40.0B
• actual data is -41.1B according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods and services during the reported month.

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• "The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced today that the goods and services deficit was $41.1 billion in May, up $3.8 billion from $37.4 billion in April, revised. May exports were $182.4 billion, $0.3 billion less than April exports. May imports were $223.5 billion, $3.4 billion more than April imports."
• "The May increase in the goods and services deficit reflected an increase in the goods deficit of $3.7 billion to $62.2 billion and a decrease in the services surplus of $0.1 billion to $21.1 billion."
  

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EUR/USD M5: 17 pips price movement by U.S. Trade Balance news event :

[Sergey Golubev]

USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Canadian Trade Balance and 28 pips price movement

2016-07-06 12:30 GMT | [CAD - International Merchandise Trade]

• past data is -3.3B
• forecast data is -2.6B
• actual data is -3.3B according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CAD in our case)

[CAD - International Merchandise Trade] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the reported month.

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"Canada's exports fell 0.7% to $41.1 billion in May. Export volumes declined 2.3% and prices were up 1.6%. Imports decreased 0.8% to $44.4 billion, as volumes were down 0.9% and prices edged up 0.2%. As a result, Canada's merchandise trade deficit with the world in May was virtually unchanged compared with April at $3.3 billion."

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USD/CAD M5: 28 pips price movement by Canadian Trade Balance news event :

[Sergey Golubev]

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and 35 pips price movement

2016-07-06 14:00 GMT | [USD - ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI]

• past data is 52.9
• forecast data is 53.3
• actual data is 56.5 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers, excluding the manufacturing industry.

==========

"The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., CFPM, chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. "The NMI® registered 56.5 percent in June, 3.6 percentage points higher than the May reading of 52.9 percent. This represents continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector at a faster rate. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index increased to 59.5 percent, 4.4 percentage points higher than the May reading of 55.1 percent, reflecting growth for the 83rd consecutive month, at a faster rate in June. The New Orders Index registered 59.9 percent, 5.7 percentage points higher than the reading of 54.2 percent in May. The Employment Index grew 3 percentage points in June after one month of contraction to 52.7 percent from the May reading of 49.7 percent. The Prices Index decreased 0.1 percentage point from the May reading of 55.6 percent to 55.5 percent, indicating prices increased in June for the third consecutive month. According to the NMI®, 15 non-manufacturing industries reported growth in June."

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EUR/USD M5: 35 pips price movement by ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI news event :