Press review - page 413

[Sergey Golubev]

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: BoE Gov Carney Speaks and 185 pips range price movement

2016-06-30 15:00 GMT | [GBP - BoE Gov Carney Speaks]

• past data is 1.2%
• forecast data is 1.4%
• actual data is 1.5% according to the latest press release

[GBP - BoE Gov Carney Speaks] = The speech at the Bank of England, in London.

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Uncertainty, the economy and policy - speech by Mark Carney :

• "In recent years, policy uncertainty has increased globally. In some jurisdictions, fiscal frameworks have been questioned; in others, exchange rate regimes. And with very low interest rates and expanding unconventional policies, the efficacy of monetary policy itself has been questioned. The charge that central banks are out of monetary ammunition is wrong, but the widespread absence of global price pressures demands that our firepower be well aimed."
• "When uncertainty is high, policymakers should have three objectives.  First, conduct a sober, objective assessment of the outlook and the risks to it.  Second, develop and communicate a plan to reduce those risks and to seize new opportunities.  And third, do no harm, by minimising any possible confusion about the commitment to core macroeconomic policy frameworks themselves."
  

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GBP/USD M5: 185 pips range price movement by BoE Gov Carney Speaks news event :

[Sergey Golubev]

USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: Caixin Manufacturing PMI and 50 pips price movement

2016-07-01 01:45 GMT | [CNY - Caixin Manufacturing PMI]

• past data is 49.2
• forecast data is 49.1
• actual data is 48.6 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNY - Caixin Manufacturing PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry.

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• "Chinese manufacturers reported the sharpest deterioration in operating conditions for four months in June, with output falling at the quickest rate since February amid a further drop in new work. Consequently, companies continued to pare back their staff numbers at a solid pace, while trimming their inventory holdings of inputs and finished goods further. Prices data indicated a renewed fall in cost burdens faced by Chinese goods producers, while output charges were left broadly unchanged after a three-month sequence of inflation."
• "Adjusted for seasonal factors, the Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™) - a composite indicator designed to provide a single-figure snapshot of operating conditions in the  manufacturing economy - registered at 48.6 in June, down from 49.2 in May, to signal a further deterioration in the health of China’s manufacturing sector. Furthermore, the rate of deterioration, though moderate, was the fastest seen in four months."
  

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USD/CNH M5: 50 pips price movement by Caixin Manufacturing PMI news event :

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Outlook: 2016, July 03 - July 10 (based on the article)

Markets continued to wobble in the post-Brexit week, with recoveries seen in many currencies. The first full week of July features the buildup to the US Non-Farm Payrolls, the Fed’s meeting minutes and key speeches among other events. These are the market movers on forex calendar.

1. Australian rate decision: Tuesday, 4:30. Economists still expect the RBA’s move will be postponed to a later date such as June 2017.
2. Mark Carney speaks: Tuesday, 9:30. BOE Governor Mark Carney is due to speak in London about the Financial Stability Report. Carney will probably address the Brexit issue and may provide clues as to the BoE’s next steps. Market volatility is expected.
3. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: Wednesday, 14:00. US non-manufacturing PMI is expected to climb to 53.5 this time.
4. US FOMC Meeting Minutes: Wednesday, 18:00. These are minutes from the Fed’s decision in June, in which it was mostly dovish. No rate hike are on the cards in the next year or so following the latest developments.
5. Haruhiko Kuroda speaks: Thursday, 0:30. BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda will give a speech in Tokyo.
6. US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change: Thursday, 12:15. The ADP figures come before the U.S. Labor Department’s major non-farm payrolls report, which includes both public and private-sector employment. ADP non-farm payrolls is expected to reach 151,000 in June.
7. US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 12:30. The number of new claims is expected to reach 272,000 this week.
8. US Crude Oil Inventories: Thursday, 15:00.
9. Canadian employment data: Friday, 12:30. Canadian labor market is expected to expand by 6,900 positions while the unemployment rate is estimated at 7.0%.
10. US Non-Farm Payrolls: Friday, 12:30. US monthly jobs report for June is forecast to show a 181,000 jobs gain, while the unemployment rate is estimated to rise to 4.8%.

[Sergey Golubev]

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australian Building Approvals and 25 pips price movement

2016-07-04 01:30 GMT | [AUD - Building Approvals]

• past data is 3.3%
• forecast data is -3.5%
• actual data is -5.2% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Building Approvals] = Change in the number of new building approvals issued.

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• The trend estimate for total dwellings approved rose 0.9% in May and has risen for six months.
• The seasonally adjusted estimate for total dwellings approved fell 5.2% in May after rising for two months.

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AUD/USD M5: 25 pips price movement by Australian Building Approvals news event :

[Sergey Golubev]

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Spanish Unemployment Change and 16 pips range price movement

2016-07-04 07:00 GMT | [EUR - Spanish Unemployment Change]

• past data is -119.8K
• forecast data is -74.3K
• actual data is -124.3K according to the latest press release

if actual < forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for EUR in our case)

[EUR - Spanish Unemployment Change] = Change in the number of unemployed people during the previous month.

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EUR/USD M5: 16 pips range price movement by Spanish Unemployment Change news event :

[Sergey Golubev]

USD/CNH Price Action Analysis - ranging within 6.70 'bullish continuation' resistance and 6.50 'bearish reversal' support (adapted from the article)

Daily price is located above 200 period SMA and 100 period SMA for the primary bullish with secondary ranging between Fibo support level at 6.5015 and Fibo resistance level at 6.7005:

• "The pair blasted through the 6.6 handle and the 6.6500 resistance following the vote, and have since traded between the 6.7 handle as resistance and the 6.5000 level on what appears to be “resistance turned support” basis."
• "The fact that the pair has managed to find support at 6.6500 in the context of an uptrend might imply focus will be out on the 6.7 figure, while the next resistance level may be found around the January high at the 6.7584 level."

If daily price breaks Fibo support level at 6.5015 to below together with 200 period SMA so the reversal of the price movement from the bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started with 6.4698 possible target.
If daily price breaks Fibo resistance level at 6.7005 from below to above so the primary bullish trend will be continuing with good possible breakout of the price movement.
If not so the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels.

Resistance	Support
6.7005	6.5703
N/A	6.5015

• Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 6.5015 support level for possible sell trade
• Recommendation to go long: watch the price to break 6.7005 resistance level for possible buy trade
• Trading Summary: ranging

SUMMARY : ranging

TREND : bullish

[Sergey Golubev]

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.K. Construction PMI and 44 pips range price movement

2016-07-04 08:30 GMT | [GBP - Construction PMI]

• past data is 51.2
• forecast data is 50.7
• actual data is 46.0 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - Construction PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the construction industry.

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"At 46.0 in June, down from 51.2 in May, the seasonally adjusted Markit/CIPS UK Construction Purchasing  Managers’ Index® (PMI®) dropped below the neutral 50.0 threshold for the first time since April 2013. The latest reading pointed to the weakest overall performance for exactly seven years, but the rate of contraction was much slower than seen during the 2008/09 downturn."

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GBP/USD M5: 44 pips range price movement by U.K. Construction PMI news event :

M5 intra-day price broke 100 SMA/200 SMA to below for the primary bearish breakdown: the price made 44 pips to below and it was bounced from 1.3243 support level to above for the ranging condition within 100 SMA/200 SMA ranging area.

If the price breaks 1.3243 support level to below on close M5 bar so the primary bearish trend will be continuing.
If the price breaks 1.3300 resistance level to above on close M5 bar so the reversal to the primary bullish will be started on this timeframe.
If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels waiting for direction.

[Sergey Golubev]

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook: 2016, July 03 - July 10 (based on the article)

EUR/USD wobbled in the post-Brexit week, but basically did not go too far. More PMIs as well as the postponed ECB meeting minutes are eyed. Will EUR/USD choose a new direction? Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week.

1. Services PMIs: Tuesday: Markit releases the data for Spain at 7:!5, Italy at 7:45, the final French figure at 7:50, final German number at 7:55 and final euro-zone number at 8:00. Spain saw robust growth in its services sector in May with 55.4 points, above the 50 point threshold separating expansion and contraction. A score of 55.2 is expected for June. On the other hand, Italy suffered from slight contraction with 49.8 points. 50.3 is predicted now. The initial read for France for June showed a weak 49.9 points. Germany contrasted that with 53.2 and the whole euro-zone with 52.4. These 3 numbers will likely be confirmed in the final read.
2. Retail Sales: Tuesday, 9:00. 
3. German Factory Orders: Wednesday, 6:00.
4. Retail PMI: Wednesday, 8:10.
5. German Industrial Production: Thursday, 6:00.
6. French Trade Balance: Thursday, 6:45.
7. ECB Meeting Minutes: Postponed from last week. Thursday, 11:30. The ECB releases minutes from its June meeting, when the ECB did not announce new measures but described the implementation of corporate bond buying and the new TLTROs. In that meeting, they also provided new forecasts which were not too optimistic. The minutes can show how worried members really are regarding their inflation mandate. It can also expose the internal debate. What could be more interesting is if we get details about the members’ view on the potential of Brexit.
8. German Trade Balance: Friday, 6:00.
9. French Industrial Production: Friday, 6:45.
10. US Non-Farm Payrolls: Friday, 12:30. US monthly jobs report for June is forecast to show a 181,000 jobs gain, while the unemployment rate is estimated to rise to 4.8%.

[Sergey Golubev]

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: RBA Cash Rate and 41 pips price movement

2016-07-05 04:30 GMT | [AUD - Cash Rate]

• past data is 1.75%
• forecast data is 1.75%
• actual data is 1.75% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Cash Rate] = Interest rate charged on overnight loans between financial intermediaries.

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The Sydney Morning Herald article:

• "The Reserve Bank of Australia left the cash rate on hold at 1.75 per cent on Tuesday, although governor Glenn Stevens hinted at cuts ahead if inflation remains low."
• "Although downplaying the global impact of Britain's shock vote to leave the European Union and ignoring the possible fallout from Saturday's federal election,  Mr Stevens slightly altered the tone of his statement from last time to point to another possible rate cut in the current cycle. "Taking account of the available information, the Board judged that holding monetary policy steady would be prudent at this meeting," he said. "Over the period ahead, further information should allow the Board to refine its assessment of the outlook for growth and inflation and to make any adjustment to the stance of policy that may be appropriate." The RBA's decision to hold rates for now was widely expected, with futures market pricing on Tuesday giving a July cut only a 4 per cent chance. However, the market and most economists see an August reduction, to 1.5 per cent, as much more likely. A cut by the November board meeting is now fully priced in."
  

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AUD/USD M5: 41 pips price movement by RBA Cash Rate news event :

[Sergey Golubev]

USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: Caixin Services PMI and 35 pips price movement

2016-07-05 01:45 GMT | [CNY - Caixin Services PMI]

• past data is 51.2
• forecast data is 52.3
• actual data is 52.7 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNY - Caixin Services PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the services industry.

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"Latest data signalled a further slowdown in over all Chinese business activity, with the rate of expansion slowing to the weakest in the current four-month sequence. There were differing trends at the sector level, however, with services companies reporting a stronger expansion of business activity in June, while manufacturing output declined at the sharpest pace since February. Notably, it was the quickest increase in services activity in 11 months, with the Caixin China General Services Business Activity Index posting 52.7, up from 51.2 in May."

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USD/CNH M5: 35 pips price movement by Caixin Services PMI news event :