Forecast for Q1'16 - levels for EUR/USD - page 16

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.26 11:23

Forex Weekly Outlook Mar 28- Apr 1 (based on the article)

The US dollar managed to claw back some of its previous losses on the week leading to Easter. US CB Consumer Confidence, Janet Yellen’s speech, and the buildup to the all-important Non-Farm Payrolls report all stand out. These are the important events on forex calendar.

  1. US CB Consumer Confidence: Tuesday, 14:00. Consumer confidence declined to a seven-month low of 92.2 in February from 98.1 posted in January.
  2. Janet Yellen speaks: Tuesday, 16:30. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen will speak in New York. In her speech titled “Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy” she may refer to the Fed’s decision to cut the number of rate hikes in 2016 amid lower growth and inflation forecasts. Market volatility is expected. She may or may clear the confusion created by the dovish Fed decision and the consequent hawkish sounds.
  3. US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change: Wednesday, 12:15. The ADP National Employment Report showed a job gain of 214,000 in February, beating economists’ expectations for 185,000 jobs addition.
  4. US Crude Oil Inventories: Wednesday, 14:30.
  5. Mark Carney speaks: Thursday, 8:00. BOE Governor Mark Carney will speak about financial stability in Tokyo. He may talk about the Brexit debate in the UK and its possible effects on the UK and the Eurozone. Volatility can be expected. We have seen rising chances of a Brexit following the Brussels bombings. This has an impact on the pound as well as the euro.
  6. Canadian GDP: Thursday, 12:30. The Canadian economy expanded 0.2% in December exceeding market forecast of 0.1% gain.
  7. US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 12:30. The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits climbed modestly last week, rising 6,000 to a seasonally reading of 265,000.
  8. Chinese PMIs: Friday: the official one at 1:00 and the independent Caixin one at 1:45.
  9. US Non-Farm Payrolls: Friday, 12:30 The U.S. employment market posted a better-than-expected jobs gain of 242,000 in February, beating forecasts of 195,000 addition. The strong reading followed a 172,000 gain in January. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.9%. Despite the strong figure, hourly wages actually fell 3 cents and equating to a 2.2% annualized jump, lower than 2.5% in January. Economists expect a job gain of 208,000 in March. This time, we will not have the ISM PMIs available before the release, so the level of uncertainty is higher.
  10. US ISM Manufacturing PMI: Friday, 14:00.

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.28 09:12

Technical Targets for EUR/USD by United Overseas Bank (based on the article)

EUR/USD: ranging within 1.10/1.13 area for direction

H4 price is located near and above 100 period SMA and 200 period SMA for the primary bullish market condition with the secondary ranging within 1.1057 support level and 1.1342 resistance level.

  • "EUR traded quietly late last week and there is no change to the current neutral view.
  • We continue to expect this pair to trade in a broad 1.1120/1.1375 range even though the immediate risk appears to be tilted to the downside.
  • A clear break below 1.1120 could lead to a quick drop towards the next support near 1.1055.
  • On a shorter-term note, 1.1280 is already a strong resistance (key resistance is at 1.1375)."

RSI indicator is estimating the secondary ranging to be continuing.  

  • If the price will break 1.1342 resistance level on close bar so the primary bullish trend will be continuing.
  • If price will break 1.1057 support on close bar so the reversal of the price movement from the primary bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
Resistance
Support
1.12841.1143
1.13421.1057


  • Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 1.1057 support level for possible sell trade
  • Recommendation to go long: watch the price to break 1.1342 resistance level for possible buy trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging bearish

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.28 14:51

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures and 12 pips price movement

2016-03-28 13:30 GMT | [USD - Core PCE Price Index]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Core PCE Price Index] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding food and energy.

==========

  • "Personal income increased $23.7 billion, or 0.2 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI) increased $23.7 billion, or 0.2 percent, in February, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $11.0 billion, or 0.1 percent. In January, personal income increased $72.7 billion, or 0.5 percent, DPI increased $57.2 billion, or 0.4 percent, and PCE increased $10.7 billion, or 0.1 percent, based on revised estimates."
  • "Real DPI increased 0.3 percent in February, the same increase as in January.  Real PCE increased 0.2 percent in February, in contrast to a decrease of less than 0.1 percent in January."

==========

EURUSD M5: 12 pips price movement by U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures news event :



 

EUR/USD Intra-Day Technical Analysis - rally to the bullish reversal

M5 price is located near and below SMA with period 100 (100 SMA) and SMA with the period 200 (200-SMA): the price is on local uptrend as the bear market rally crossed 1.1193 support level together with 100 SMA to above for the ranging market condition with the possible reversal of the price movement from the primary bearish to the primary bullish market condition.

  • If the price will break 1.1200 resistance level so we may see the bullish reversal to be started on the intra-day price movement.
  • If price will break 1.1183 support so the bearish trend will be continuing.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
Resistance
Support
1.11931.1185
1.12001.1183


  • Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 1.1183 support level for possible sell trade
  • Recommendation to go long: watch the price to break 1.1200 resistance level for possible buy trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging

SUMMARY : ranging

TREND : waiting for direction
 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.29 17:59

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Fed Chair Yellen Speech and 14 pips price movement

2016-03-29 17:30 GMT | [USD - Fed Chair Yellen Speech]

[USD - Fed Chair Yellen Speech] = "Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy" speech at the Economic Club of New York luncheon.

==========

EURUSD M5: 14 pips price movement by Fed Chair Yellen Speech news event :



 
Sergey Golubev:

EUR/USD Intra-Day Technical Analysis - rally to the bullish reversal

  • Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 1.1183 support level for possible sell trade
  • Recommendation to go long: watch the price to break 1.1200 resistance level for possible buy trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging

The price broke 1.1200 resistance level to above for the bullish reversal: price was bounced from 1.1270 resistance for the ranging condition to be started. So, it was bullish breakout with the reversal. And of you placed buy stop pending order at 1.1200 so we can get +70 pips in profit for now.


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.29 21:17


"The FOMC left the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged in January and March, in large part reflecting the changes in baseline conditions that I noted earlier. In particular, developments abroad imply that meeting our objectives for employment and inflation will likely require a somewhat lower path for the federal funds rate than was anticipated in December.

Given the risks to the outlook, I consider it appropriate for the Committee to proceed cautiously in adjusting policy. This caution is especially warranted because, with the federal funds rate so low, the FOMC's ability to use conventional monetary policy to respond to economic disturbances is asymmetric. If economic conditions were to strengthen considerably more than currently expected, the FOMC could readily raise its target range for the federal funds rate to stabilize the economy. By contrast, if the expansion was to falter or if inflation was to remain stubbornly low, the FOMC would be able to provide only a modest degree of additional stimulus by cutting the federal funds rate back to near zero.9

One must be careful, however, not to overstate the asymmetries affecting monetary policy at the moment. Even if the federal funds rate were to return to near zero, the FOMC would still have considerable scope to provide additional accommodation. In particular, we could use the approaches that we and other central banks successfully employed in the wake of the financial crisis to put additional downward pressure on long-term interest rates and so support the economy--specifically, forward guidance about the future path of the federal funds rate and increases in the size or duration of our holdings of long-term securities. While these tools may entail some risks and costs that do not apply to the federal funds rate, we used them effectively to strengthen the recovery from the Great Recession, and we would do so again if needed."


======

14 pips price movement for EURUSD was immediate effect after Fed Chair Yellen Speech. The medium term situation related to this Speech after publishing it on Federal Reserve website are the following:

1. EURUSD M5: 82 pips price movement by Fed Chair Yellen Speech news event :


2. GBPUSD M5: 106 pips price movement by Fed Chair Yellen Speech news event :


3. USDJPY M5: 55 pips price movement by Fed Chair Yellen Speech news event :


4. GOLD (XAU/USD) M5: 1,406 pips price movement by Fed Chair Yellen Speech news event :



 

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Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5

Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.30 08:36

Quick Technical Overview for EUR/USD: bullish breakout with 1.1342 as the target

EUR/USD: bullish breakout. Intra-day H4 price is on bullish breakout located to be above Ichimoku cloud: price is breaking 1.1302 resistance level to above for the breakout to be continuing with 1.1342 as the next bullish nearest target.


There are the following news events which will be affected on EUR/USD price movement for the week:

  • 2016-03-30 13:15 GMT | [USD - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change]
  • 2016-03-31 07:00 GMT | [EUR - German Retail Sales]
  • 2016-03-31 08:00 GMT | [EUR - Spanish Flash CPI]
  • 2016-03-31 08:55 GMT | [EUR - German Unemployment Change]
  • 2016-03-31 10:00 GMT | [EUR - CPI Flash Estimate]
  • 2016-04-01 08:15 GMT | [EUR - Spanish Manufacturing PMI]
  • 2016-04-01 10:00 GMT | [EUR - Unemployment Rate]
  • 2016-04-01 13:30 GMT | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]
  • 2016-04-01 15:00 GMT | [USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI]
Resistance
Support
1.13021.1168
1.1342
1.1143

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.30 15:22

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and 29 pips range price movement

2016-03-30 13:15 GMT | [USD - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change] = Estimated change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry and government.

==========


"Private-sector employment increased by 200,000 from February to March, on a seasonally adjusted basis."

==========

EURUSD M5: 29 pips range price movement by ADP Non-Farm Employment Change news event :



 

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Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5

Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.30 18:50

Forecast for Tomorrow - levels for EUR/USD and GOLD (XAU/USD)

EUR/USD: ranging below 50.0% Fibo support level. This pair on intra-day H4 price is located to be above 100/200 period SMA for the bullish market condition. The price was on bullish breakout, and it is started to be ranging within Fibo resistance level at 1.1364 and 50.0% Fibo support level at 1.1254.


  • if the price breaks Fibo resistance level at 1.1364 so the primary bullish trend will be continuing;
  • if the price breaks 50.0% Fibo support level at 1.1254 so the local downtrend as the secondary correction within the primary bullish will be started;
  • if not so the price will be moved within the channel.
Resistance
Support
1.13321.1254
1.1364
1.1143

GOLD (XAU/USD): ranging on reversal. Intra-day H4 price is located near and below 100/200 SMA ranging area waiting for direction: price is ranging within the following key reversal s/r levels:

  • 1244.05 resistance level located in the beginning of the bullish area of the intra-day chart, and
  • 1208.23 support level located below 100/200 SMA area in the primary bearish area.

RSI indicator is estinating the bearish trend to be started.

  • if the price breaks 1244.05 resistance so the reversal of the price movement from the ranging bearish to the primary bullish market condition will be started;
  • if the price breaks 1208.23 support level so the primary bearish trend will be continuing without ranging up to the new 'bottom' to be forming;
  • if not so the price will be moved within the channel.
Resistance
Support
1244.051214.72
1263.341208.23

1...910111213141516
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