S&P 500: intra-day ranging within 100 SMA/200 SMA reversal area for direction (adapted from the article)
is located within SMA with period 100 (100 SMA) and SMA with the period
200 (above 200 SMA and below 100 SMA for the ranging bullish market condition) waiting for the direction for the possible breakout or
If the price will break 2092.00 resistance level to above on close H4 bar so the bullish trend will be continuing with 2112.80 target.If price will break 2075.00 support so the bearish reversal will be started.If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
U.K. Brexit Referendum: Polls Open (based on the article)
EUR/USD M5: 17 pips price movement by Brexit Referendum: Polls Open news event
GBP/USD M5: 67 pips price movement by Brexit Referendum: Polls Open news event
Adjusting Your Trading Expectations In Volatile & Possibly Illiquid Markets
U.K. Voters Back 'Brexit,' Will Leave European Union (based on the article)
EUR/USD : 465 pips price movement by Brexit Referendum Final Results Expectation
GBP/USD : 1,639 pips price movement by Brexit Referendum Final Results Expectation
The Brexit Result Will Have China Worried (adapted from the article)
USD/CNH H4: bullish breakout. The intra-day price is on breakout with the bullish reversal: price broke Ichimoku cloud to above for the primary bullish market condition with 6.6514 resistance level to be crossed for the bullish trend to be continuing. By the way, the daily price is on bullish breakout to be started today on open D1 bar, and the weekly price is on primary bullish market condition with 6.6152 resistance to be crossed to above for the close weekly bar for 6.7681 possible target.
Hang Seng Index H4: bearish breakdown with the ranging to be started. The price broke ichimoku cloud to below for the primary bearish market condition. Price is testing 19,749 support level with 19,566 bearish target and with descending triangle pattern to be formed by the price for the bearish trend to be continuing.
It will take years for the full ramifications of the Brexit to unfold. In the meantime, here are the five most important things you need to know about this historic decision.1. The stock market is reeling, but no one yet knows what the ultimate impact will be.2. The British pound is getting hammered, which is good for vacationers but could have a longer-term effect on trade.3. Banks and ratings agencies are lowering their outlooks for European GDP growth.4. The vote was not legally binding.5. There could be a domino effect.
Weekly Outlook: 2016, June 26 - July 03 (based on the article)
The Brexit decision had huge market implications with a crash for the pound, falls for other risk currencies and gains for the dollar and the yen. Apart from the Brexit aftershocks, we have US and Canadian GDP data, US Consumer Confidence and other events. These are the major events on forex calendar.
Brexit - "Investors overreacted," University of Michigan business professor Erik Gordon said Friday in an email (adapted from the article)
Dax Index - daily bearish breakdown, weekly bearish reversal:
Bovespa Index - daily correction, weekly ranging to the bearish reversal:
SILVER (XAG/USD) - daily bullish breakout, weekly bear market rally:
Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
Sergey Golubev, 2014.03.04 19:07
Unfortunately trends don’t always exist; and when that often entails
congested, range-bound price movements as bulls and bears both fight to
take over control of the market in search of the next trend. These
range-bound environs can be more dangerous, and given the limited upside
that might be available, many traders will often eschew trading the
range; instead waiting for the inevitable breakout that may end the
range and lead into a new trend.
The Benefit of Multiple Time Frames
The value of being able to get a ‘bigger picture’ view on a market
cannot be understated. To think of the value of multiple time frame
analysis, think of trading in a currency pair like buying a home.
If you’re going to buy a home, you’re likely going to want more of an
overview than simply driving by and getting a quick glance. This is like
trading a currency pair when only seeing one time frame.
When buying a home, you’ll likely want to get out of the car and walk
around to ensure that the back yard isn’t in complete disarray. You want
to check the foundation to make sure that you’re not going to have
exorbitant repair expenses in your future. You want to get as much
information as is feasibly possible to make the most intelligent
purchasing decision that you can.
Trading in a market isn’t all that different, the more information you have the more of an informed decision that you can make.
Multiple Time Frame Intervals for Trend Diagnoses/Entry
And if the four-hour time frame is being used to enter positions, the
daily chart can be used to gauge the trend (or lack thereof); so that
the trader can ensure they are focusing the optimal approach on the
prevailing market condition.
Or perhaps a longer-term trader wants to use the daily chart to enter
trades. Well, then the weekly chart can be used as the longer time frame
to guide the trader’s decision-making processes.
The benefit of using a longer time frame in the decision as to which
strategy to utilize is that the trader can take more information into
account, getting an idea of the ‘bigger picture’ before executing on
Gauging Trend Strength (or lack thereof)
Once a trader has determined the time frame with which they want to
look to grade the prevailing trend, focus can then be diverted to
investigating the strength of that trend.
Price Action is a popular mechanism for doing so. Traders can simply
look as to whether a market is in the process of making ‘higher-highs’
and ‘higher-lows.’ If this is taking place, then the trader is
witnessing an up-trend, and can look to move down to the shorter time
frame in an effort to buy as efficiently as possible.
Another popular way of grading trend strength on the longer-term chart
incorporates the ADX indicator. ADX, or the Average Directional Index is
an indicator created by J. Welles Wilder that was designed specifically
to grade trend strength. The downside of this is that it doesn’t show
which direction the trend might be moving, only whether the trend is
‘strong’ or ‘weak.’
Traders can use the ADX indicator on the longer-term chart to determine
whether or not a trend is being seen in the market. If values are
reading over 30 on ADX, then traders will often look to execute
Now that the Trend is determined, what’s next?
The shorter time frame is where the trader will often look to enter into
the market based on the analysis on the longer time frame.
If a trend was found on the longer time frame, the trader’s job is to
find a way to enter in the direction of that trend. On the lower
time-frame, the trader can look to buy up-trends cheaply, or to sell
down-trends expensively. This can be done with price action; or traders
can look to incorporate indicators to offer a ‘trigger’ in the direction
of the longer-term trend on the shorter time frame. Some common
indicators for triggering positions on the shorter time frame are MACD,
Stochastics, and the Commodity Channel Index (CCI).
If a Range-bound market condition was seen on the longer time frame,
the trader has another decision to make before deciding how to enter:
Does the trader want to trade continuation of the range, or the eventual
The logic of the range-bound entry and the breakout is directly
opposite: Trading ranges entails selling highs, and buying lows (in
anticipation of the range continuing), while trading breakouts involves
buying new highs and selling new lows (with the expectation of the
breakout bringing new highs or new lows into the market).
If trading for the break, traders can look to place entry orders
slightly outside of support or resistance levels so that once a new high
or low is printed, the trade is entered and the trader can look for new
highs or lows.
If traders are looking to trade the range, an oscillator can be used
similarly in the way that a trader would buy or sell in a trend (with
the notable exception that up-side is limited). In both trends and
ranges, traders want to look to ‘buy low’ and ‘sell high.’ The same
types of tools can be used to determine when to buy and when to sell;
MACD, Stochastics, and CCI are all popular mechanisms to trade in
range-bound market conditions just as they are with trends.
Fundamental Weekly Forecasts for Dollar Index, USD/JPY, GBP/USD and USD/CNH (based on the article)
Dollar Index - "Moving forward, the ‘risk’ aspect of the Dollar’s fundamental
appeal is likely to grow while the ‘return’ quality will diminish. There
is little yield to be made in the market generally, and the exaggerated
emphasis on a 25bp hike from the FOMC
versus the diminished efficacy of stimulus programs from the likes of
the ECB and BoJ was losing traction regardless. With the global risks
more prominent and the greater risk of a slowing of world growth, a rate hike in 2016 is even less likely. Fed Chair Yellen will weigh in next week. Perhaps the greater pressure would come from central bank intervention, but that is likely to have as limited influence as monetary policy."
USD/JPY - "In turn, risk trends may largely influence
USD/JPY ahead of the key data prints scheduled for the week ahead, with
the longer-term outlook tilted to the downside as price and the Relative
Strength Index (RSI) largely preserve the bearish formations carried
over from the previous year. However, positive data prints coming out of
the U.S. may generate a near-term bounce in the dollar-yen exchange
rate should they put pressure on the Fed to further normalize monetary
policy sooner rather than later."
GBP/USD - "We’re shifting to a bearish forecast on the
British Pound for the week ahead as markets wrestle with the prospect of
what a post-EU U.K. might actually look like. Uncertainty is expected
to reign supreme, and this is something that investors will generally
respond to by simply avoiding risk."
USD/CNH - "Keeping the Yuan stable to the basket does not mean unchanged.
With such dramatic moves, the PBOC has to balance the impact to the
Dollar/Yuan pair and the Yuan Index. It is almost inevitable that the
Dollar will strengthen against the Yuan due to safe-haven demand. If the
Central Bank wants to even-out the Yuan’s huge gains in the index
against the Pound and Euro, the Yuan has to weaken even further against
the US Dollar. Yet, this could drive capital flows out of China while
China’s foreign reserves have continued to decrease. The drop to foreign
reserves in May erased all of the gains from the previous two months
and dropped to $3.1917 trillion, the lowest level since December 2011.
Thus, in the coming week, the PBOC’s moves and global investors’ risk
appetite will be the key drivers to the Dollar/Yuan pairs. Post-Brexit
responses from European countries as well as Japan will add considerable
volatility to the Yuan as well. Traders will want to continue to be very cautious."