GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: BoE Official Rate and 26 pips price movement
2016-06-16 11:00 GMT | [GBP - Official Bank Rate]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)
[GBP - Official Bank Rate] = Interest rate at which the BOE lends to financial institutions overnight.
GBP/USD M5: 26 pips price movement by BoE Official Rate news event
USD/CNH Technical Analysis: bullish trend near 100 SMA ranging border (based on the article)
As we see from the chart above - the daily price is located above 200 SMA with near and above 100 SMA for the primary bullish market condition. If the price breaks 6.6152 resistance level to above so the daily bullish trend will be continuing, otherwise - the price will be on ranging within the levels waiting for direction.By the way, the bearish reversal level for the daily price is 6.4665 located near and below 200 SMA, and if the price breaks this level to below so the bearish reversal of the price movement will be started.
Trading News Events: Canada Consumer Price Index (CPI) (adapted from the article)
is located near SMA with period 100 (100-SMA) and SMA with the period
200 (200-SMA) waiting for the direction for the possible breakout or
SUMMARY : ranging
TREND : waiting for direction
Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
Forecast for Q2'16 - levels for USD/CAD
Sergey Golubev, 2016.06.17 11:45
USD/CAD M5: 22 pips range price movement by Canada's Consumer Price Index news event
Fundamental Weekly Forecasts for Dollar Index, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD and GOLD (based on the article)
Dollar Index - "Unfortunately, the top US-centric event risk
in the week ahead is scheduled prior to the expected rendering of the
Brexit results. Ms. Yellen is due to testify before the House and Senate on monetary policy
Tuesday and Wednesday. She will be in the same position of wait-and-see
as the rest of the market. Had her inquisition come after the event
were resolved, she could have given more definitive bearing for
speculators on Fed forecasts in response."
GBP/USD - "This time next week, unless something
unexpected takes place, we will finally have the results of the
widely-awaited upon Brexit referendum. Those results are set to be
released on Friday morning in the UK from between 7-9AM (2-4 AM Eastern
Time), and, frankly, nobody is quite sure what to expect here. While
‘remain’ seemed to be a nearly foregone conclusion just two months ago, a
recent series of polls highlighting a majority of voters leaning
towards ‘leave,’ has created considerable confusion in the expectations
around the referendum."
USD/CAD - "James Bullard, president of the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank,
noted on Friday that he was the low ‘Dot’ on the Fed’s notorious ‘Dot
Plot.' Per Bullard, the Federal
Reserve should only be looking to hike one more time until 2018. This
Bearish development (which isn’t completely out of character for him)
spooked USD Bulls, which provided a lift for the Canadian Dollar."
USD/JPY - "Another leg lower in USD/JPY may fuel
speculation for a currency intervention as Japanese officials favor a
stable exchange rate, but the Bank of Japan (BoJ) may stick to the
sidelines at the next interest-rate decision on July 29 as Governor Haruhiko Kuroda
and Co. continue to monitor the impact of the negative interest rate
policy (NIRP) on the real economy. As a result, the BoJ’s wait-and-see
approach may continue to heighten the appeal of the Yen especially as Japan returns to its historical role as a net-lender to the global economy."
AUD/USD - "In practice, all this may fall by the wayside as
traders focus on a singular binary outcome: the UK European Union
membership referendum. The outcome will be pivotal for the direction of
risk appetite trends. Opinion polls in recent weeks have started to skew
toward a preference for so-called “Brexit”. No country has ever left
the EU under such circumstances, much less the region’s second-largest
GOLD (XAU/USD) - "Looking ahead, traders will be fixated on the
upcoming UK referendum as well as the semi-annual Humphry Hawkins
testimony with Fed Chair Janet Yellen. On the back of this week’s rate
decision, Yellen’s testimony before the Senate Banking Committee on
Tuesday and the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday will be
closely scrutinized as market participants attempt to ascertain both the
timing and scope for Fed normalization amid the ongoing “uncertainty”
she so passionately expressed on Wednesday. All eyes will be on the
Brexit decision next Thursday and gold will likely see some serious
volatility should voters choose to leave the EU."
Weekly Outlook: 2016, June 19 - June 26 (based on the article)
Risk off sentiment dominated during most of the week, but things reversed later on. It’s all related to the UK’s EU Referendum which happens in the upcoming week. Apart from this, two testimonies from Janet Yellen, US Durable Goods Orders and German surveys will play a role around the big vote. These are the highlights on forex calendar.
Something to read: Deciding if a Financial Adviser Is Right for the Job
"The Certified Financial Planner Board of
Standards hired Azmyth Kaminski, a D.J., and cut off his dreadlocks,
removed his body piercings and put him in a suit. He learned a few
financial phrases and sat in a conference room. Then the board brought
in couples looking for a financial adviser."
5 Big Forex Mistakes Small Investors Make (based on the article)
Week Ahead: Will Great Britain Become Little England?
USD/CNH Technical Analysis: daily bullish to be continuing or the secondary correction to be started (adapted from the article)
"A break below 6.5880 may put the focus again on the 6.5500 prior support. A break below that level could put the spotlight on a major support
confluence zone (marked blue) that combines the 6.5000 handle, 200 day
SMA, trend line from October 2015, and the 6.47446 level, which is the
0.382 Fib from the long term up trend as marked from the 2014 low at
Daily price is located above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart: the price is ranging within the following key support/resistance levels:
If the price breaks 6.6152 level to above so the primary bullish trend will be continuing.If the price breaks 6.5632 support level to below on close daily bar so the secondary correction will be started.If the price breaks 6.5373 support level so the reversal of the price movement to the primary bearish market condition will be started.By the way, Chinkou Span line is located above the price for the bullish condition with the possible secondary correction to be started in the near future by direction.
IMF Says Achieving Abenomics' Targets Require Policy Upgrade (based on the article) :
"Under current policies, the high nominal growth goal, the inflation
target, and the primary budget surplus objective all remain out of reach
within the timeframe set by the authorities."