Press review - page 405

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

Intra-day Technical Analysis - DAX Index: bullish ranging within 20-day high resistance and bearish reversal support (based on the article)

H4 price is on primary bullish market condition for the ranging within the following support/resistance levels:

  • 20-day high at 10372.5 level located far above 100 SMA/200 SMA reversal area in the primary bullish area of the chart, and
  • 10038.3 support level located near 200 SMA on the border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend.

"The 10100/00 area the market is springing to life from holds critical if a higher low is to carve itself out. This area has been in play since early March and continues to be important. A strong showing today (it’s very early, but off to a good start) and break above the Friday high will go a long way towards building the bullish case for a break above the recent swing high at 10374 (5/31). The higher low, higher high sequence from late May should then continue to further itself up to the 4/21 high at 10486 and then possibly to a new high 2016 high, reaching the trend-line running off the 2015 record highs."


  • If the price will break 10372.5 resistance level so the primary bullish trend will be continuing.
  • If price will break 10038.3 support so the reversal of the price movement from the primary bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
Resistance
Support
10372.510038.3
N/A
9762.4

SUMMARY : ranging

TREND : bullish
DAX 30: Case for New 2016 Highs is Building
DAX 30: Case for New 2016 Highs is Building
  • DailyFX
  • www.dailyfx.com
Yesterday was a very uneventful start to the week for the DAX (FXCM: GER30), with its uninspiring 60-point range. We noted on Monday that if we are to regain confidence from the long-side it will need to quickly move higher and recapture Friday’s NFP/ISM Non-manufacturing induced sell-off. On Friday, Euro-zone stock markets – led by the DAX –...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: China Trade Balance and 23 pips price movement

2016-06-08 03:13 GMT | [CNY - Trade Balance]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNY - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the previous month.

==========

USD/CNH M5: 23 pips price movement by China Trade Balance news event


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.K. Manufacturing Production and 37 pips price movement

2016-06-08 08:30 GMT | [GBP - Manufacturing Production]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - Manufacturing Production] = Change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers.

==========

"Total production output is estimated to have increased by 2.0% in April 2016 compared with March 2016. There were increases in 3 of the 4 main sectors, with the largest contribution coming from manufacturing, which increased by 2.3%, the largest rise since July 2012."

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GBP/USD M5: 37 pips price movement by U.K. Manufacturing Production news event


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news event:  intra-day ranging within narrow levels; daily bullish trend to 6-month high at 53.95 as a target

2016-06-08 14:30 GMT | [USD - Crude Oil Inventories]

[USD - Crude Oil Inventories] = Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week.

==========

"U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 3.2 million barrels from the previous week."

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Crude Oil M5: ranging within 52.51 resistance and 51.98 support. The price is on ranging within narrow levels located to be above 100 SMA/200 SMA reversal area for the bullish market condition.
If the price breaks 52.51 resistance on close M5 bar so the primary bullish trend will be continuing.
If the price breaks 51.98 support level to below on close M5 bar so the reversal of intra-day price movement to the primary bearish trend will be started on the secondary ranging way.


Crude Oil Daily: bullish trend to 6-month high at 53.95 as a target. The price is located above 100 SMA/200 SMA reversal area for the primary bullish market condition: price is breaking 51.51 resistance level to above for 6-month high at 53.95 as a nearest bullish target to re-enter.

If the price breaks 53.95 level to above so the bullish trend will be continuing with 55.54 possible target for breakout.
If the price breaks 44.60 support level to below so the reversal of the price movement to the ranging bearish condition will be started.
If not so the price will be moved within the channel for ranging bullish.


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

Trading News Events: Reserve Bank of New Zealand Official Cash Rate (adapted from the article)

  • "According to a Bloomberg News survey, 10 of the 17 economists polled anticipate the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to retain its current policy in June, but more of the same from Governor Graeme Wheeler and Co. may encourage a further recovery in NZD/USD should the central bank largely endorse a wait-and-see approach for monetary policy."
  • "Even though the RBNZ keeps the door open to further support the real economy, a less-dovish policy statement may boost the appeal of the New Zealand dollar as market participants scale back speculation for lower borrowing-costs."


M5 price is located above 100 period SMA and 200 period SMA for the bullish market condition: the price is on ranging within the following support/resistance levels:

  • 0.7026/0.7053 resistance levels located far above 100 SMA/200 SMA reversal in the primary bullish area of the chart, and
  • 0.7012/0.7000 support levels located near 100 SMA/200 SMA on the border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend.


If M5 price breaks 0.7000 support level to below on close bar so the reversal of the intra-day price movement from the primary bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started.
If M5 price will break 0.7053 resistance level on close bar so the bullish trend will be continuing.
If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.

Resistance
Support
0.70260.7012
0.7053
0.7000


Daily price is located above Ichimoku cloud and Senkou Span line which is the virtual border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend on Ichimoku chart. The price is breaking 0.6980 resistance level to above on daily open bar for 0.7053 level as the next bullish target to re-enter. Chinkou Span line is breaking the price to above for good possible breakout, and Absolute Strength indicator together with Trend Strength indicator are estimating the bullish trend to be continuing.

  • Recommendation for daily long: watch close D1 price to break 0.7053 for possible buy trade
  • Recommendation to go short (daily trading): n/a
  • Trading Summary: bullish
NZD/USD to Eye April High (0.7053) on Less-Dovish RBNZ
NZD/USD to Eye April High (0.7053) on Less-Dovish RBNZ
  • DailyFX
  • www.dailyfx.com
According to a Bloomberg News survey, 10 of the 17 economists polled anticipate the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to retain its current policy in June, but more of the same from Governor Graeme Wheeler and Co. may encourage a further recovery in NZD/USD should the central bank largely endorse a wait-and-see approach for monetary policy...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  
Sergey Golubev:

Trading News Events: Reserve Bank of New Zealand Official Cash Rate (adapted from the article)

  • "According to a Bloomberg News survey, 10 of the 17 economists polled anticipate the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to retain its current policy in June, but more of the same from Governor Graeme Wheeler and Co. may encourage a further recovery in NZD/USD should the central bank largely endorse a wait-and-see approach for monetary policy."
  • "Even though the RBNZ keeps the door open to further support the real economy, a less-dovish policy statement may boost the appeal of the New Zealand dollar as market participants scale back speculation for lower borrowing-costs."


M5 price is located above 100 period SMA and 200 period SMA for the bullish market condition: the price is on ranging within the following support/resistance levels:

  • 0.7026/0.7053 resistance levels located far above 100 SMA/200 SMA reversal in the primary bullish area of the chart, and
  • 0.7012/0.7000 support levels located near 100 SMA/200 SMA on the border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend.

If M5 price breaks 0.7000 support level to below on close bar so the reversal of the intra-day price movement from the primary bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started.
If M5 price will break 0.7053 resistance level on close bar so the bullish trend will be continuing.
If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.

Resistance
Support
0.70260.7012
0.7053
0.7000

Daily price is located above Ichimoku cloud and Senkou Span line which is the virtual border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend on Ichimoku chart. The price is breaking 0.6980 resistance level to above on daily open bar for 0.7053 level as the next bullish target to re-enter. Chinkou Span line is breaking the price to above for good possible breakout, and Absolute Strength indicator together with Trend Strength indicator are estimating the bullish trend to be continuing.

  • Recommendation for daily long: watch close D1 price to break 0.7053 for possible buy trade
  • Recommendation to go short (daily trading): n/a
  • Trading Summary: bullish

NZD/USD M5: 110 pips range price movement by RBNZ Official Cash Rate news event


M5 price broke 0.7026/0.7053 resistance levels to above: the price is testing 0.7137 resistance for the intra-day bullish trend to be continuing.
Besides, daily bar was opened to be above 0.7053 level which is indicating the crossing it to above on close D1 bar for the daily bullish trend continuation.


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

EUR/USD Fundamentals: ECB President Draghi Speaks and 10 pips ranging price movement; 1.1410 resistance level to be broken for the daily bullish trend continuation

2016-06-09 07:00 GMT | [EUR - ECB President Draghi Speaks]

[EUR - ECB President Draghi Speaks] = The speech at the Brussels Economic Forum.

==========

"The objective of the ECB is defined as delivering a rate of inflation below but close to 2% over the medium term. But the medium term is not a fixed period of time. When faced with adverse shocks, the pace at which monetary policy can bring inflation back to the objective depends on two factors: the nature of the shock itself, and the conditions in which monetary policy operates."

"Summing up, there is a large degree of interaction between monetary policy and other policies that may in principle be geared towards different objectives. Such interactions do not prevent a determined central bank from achieving its objective. But they do affect the time frame over which we can do so. What this implies is that, for stabilisation to occur no more slowly than is strictly necessary, all policy areas have a role to play."

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EUR/USD M5: 10 pips ranging price movement by ECB President Draghi Speaks news event


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Daily price is on primary bullish market condition for 1.1410 resistance level to be tested for the bullish trend to be continuing. Ascending triangle pattern was formed by the price to be crossed to above for the 1.1410 level to be broken for the bullish trend continuation with 30-day high at 1.1616 as a possible bullish target.

  • If the price will break 1.1410 resistance level so the primary bullish trend will be continuing with 30-day high at 1.1616 as a possible bullish target.
  • If price will break 1.1029 support so the reversal of the daily price movement from the primary bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
Resistance
Support
1.14101.1097
1.1616N/A


  • Recommendation to go short: watch close daily price to break 1.1029 support level for possible sell trade
  • Recommendation to go long: watch close daily price to break 1.1410 resistance level for possible buy trade
  • Trading Summary: bullish

SUMMARY : bullish

On the importance of policy alignment to fulfil our economic potential
On the importance of policy alignment to fulfil our economic potential
  • European Central Bank
  • www.ecb.europa.eu
In a speech in Vienna last week, I explained why monetary policy could deliver the appropriate level of stimulus to the economy, even in a setting where interest rates are close to their effective lower bound.[1] As inflation is ultimately a monetary phenomenon, a committed central bank can always fulfil its mandate. And that is true...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

GBP/USD Fundamentals: U.K. Goods Trade Balance and 12 pips price movement

==========

2016-06-09 08:30 GMT | [GBP - Goods Trade Balance]

  • past data is -10.6B
  • forecast data is -11.0B
  • actual data is -10.5B according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - Goods Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the reported month.

==========


"The deficit on trade in goods was £10.5 billion in April 2016; narrowing by £0.1 billion from March 2016. This narrowing reflected an increase in exports (up £2.2 billion to £26.1 billion) and an increase in imports (up £2.0 billion to £36.6 billion)."

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GBP/USD M5: 12 pips price movement by Goods Trade Balance news event


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GBP/USD Daily Technicals: ranging within 2-week high/low levels for direction

Daily price is on ranging between 100 SMA and 200 SMA reversal area waiting for direction within the following support/resistance levels:

  • 2-week high at 1.4739 located near 200 period SMA on the border between the ranging bearish and the primary bullish trend on the chart, and
  • 2-week low at 1.4351 located near 100 SMA on the border between the ranging bearish and the primary bearish trend.

Descending triangle pattern was formed by the price to be crossed for the bearish condition to be continuing.

  • If the price will break 1.4739 resistance level so the reversal of the daily price movement from the ranging bearish to the primary bullish market condition will be started.
  • If price will break 1.4351 support so the bearish trend will be continuing witholut secondary ranging up to the new 'bottom' to be formed.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
Resistance
Support
1.46581.4351
1.4739N/A


  • Recommendation to go short: watch close daily price to break 1.4351 support level for possible sell trade
  • Recommendation to go long: watch close daily price to break 1.4739 resistance level for possible buy trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging
SUMMARY : ranging for direction
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

USD/CAD Fundamentals: BOC Financial System Review and 34 pips price movement

==========

2016-06-09 14:30 GMT | [CAD - BOC Financial System Review]

[CAD - BOC Financial System Review] = Assessment of conditions in the financial system and potential risks to financial stability.

==========


==========

USD/CAD M5: 34 pips price movement by BOC Financial System Review news event


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USD/CAD Daily Technicals: 1.2654 support to be testing for 2-month low at 1.2460 as a nearest bearish target

Daily price is located below 100 SMA/200 SMA for the primary bearish market condition: the price is breaking 1.2654 support to below for the 2-month low at 1.2460 as a next bearish target

  • If the price will break 2-month high at 1.3296 to above so the reversal of the price movement from the primary bearish to the primary bullish trend will be started..
  • If price will break 1.2654 support so the bearish trend will be continuing with 1.2460 as a possible target to re-enter.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
Resistance
Support
1.32961.2654
1.38281.2460


  • Recommendation to go short: watch close daily price to break 1.2654 support level for possible sell trade
  • Recommendation to go long: watch close daily price to break 1.3296 resistance level for possible buy trade
  • Trading Summary: bearish
SUMMARY : bearish
Financial System Review - June 2016
Financial System Review - June 2016
  • 2016.06.03
  • www.bankofcanada.ca
The Reports section of the Financial System Review examines selected issues of relevance to the Canadian and global financial systems. The June 2016 issue features two reports written by Bank of Canada staff. The first examines the role played by a particular type of investor—large public pension funds—in the financial system, and the second describes how the market for securities-financing transactions helps support bond market liquidity in Canada.
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

EUR/USD Fundamentals: U.K. Goods Trade Balance and 22 pips price movement

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2016-06-10 07:00 GMT | [EUR - German Buba President Weidmann Speaks]

[EUR - German Buba President Weidmann Speaks] = The speech about monetary, financial, and fiscal stability at the Bundesbank Spring Conference, in Germany.

==========

  • "The financial crisis has shown in no uncertain terms that the transmission of monetary policy depends heavily on financial market conditions. When the financial markets were disrupted in autumn 2008 after the collapse of Lehman Brothers, the traditional interest rate pass-through of our conventional monetary policy measures was obviously hampered."
  • "But even today, the effectiveness of our monetary policy depends on financial market conditions. This can be illustrated, for example, by the role asset managers play in how non-standard monetary policy measures impact on longer-term interest rates."
  • "A recent initiative by the Bank of England is pushing for the introduction of standardised GDP-linked bonds. By tying coupon payments, and potentially the principal as well, to a country’s growth rate, investors share both the upside and the downside risk of a country’s economic development. That way, a country can potentially retain fiscal space even when faced with adverse economic events. GDP-linked bonds exhibit equity-like features, which of course gives rise to questions as well."
  • "The euro area still has a long way to go, especially with regard to fiscal policy. Unfortunately, the spill-over from monetary policy – savings through lower interest expenses – has not been used as much as it could to press ahead with improving public budgets."

==========

EUR/USD M5: 22 pips price movement by German Buba President Weidmann Speaks news event


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EUR/USD Intra-Day Technicals: ranging near bearish/bullish reversal for direction

H4 price is located near 200 period SMA waiting for the direction for the bearish or bullish trend to be started. There are 3 main scenario for H4 price movement for today:

  • the price breaks 1.1414 resistance to above for the bullish trend to be resumed;
  • the price breaks 1.1289 support level to below for the bearish reversal to be started;
  • the price will be on ranging market condition within the levels waiting for direction.
Resistance
Support
1.13651.1289
1.14141.1097


  • Recommendation to go short: watch close H4 price to break 1.1289 support level for possible sell trade
  • Recommendation to go long: watch close H4 price to break 1.1414 resistance level for possible buy trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging
SUMMARY : ranging for direction
Deutsche Bundesbank - Speeches - An impossible trinity? The interplay of monetary, financial and fiscal stability
  • www.bundesbank.de
I would like to welcome all of you to the Bundesbank Spring Conference. It is a great pleasure to have you here. An old joke about economics is that it’s "". But sometimes, it is also a field in which people say exactly the same thing – and even Nobel-prize-worthy things – without having ever talked to one another beforehand. That was the case...