Press review - page 403

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

Brent Crude Oil 4-month high at 50.83 to be testing to above for the bullish trend to be continuing (adapted from the article)


  • "WTI Crude Oil Price came within a whisper of the 2016 high on Tuesday after hitting $50.10 in mid-morning trading ahead of July Contract expiration. Regardless of recent force, the CL1 June contract has seen a May price range of ~14% (43.03-50.21) that may be slowing down but does not appear done."
  • "While looking at the Average True Range, you can see that the price of Oil has become less volatile. Implied Volatility in Crude Oil ended last week at its lowest levels since August, which may show that Bears do not see a reason to fight the four-month uptrend that could continue. Also, the highest traded options contract on Friday as per Bloomberg was December 2017 $60 calls that also show long-term bullishness."
  • "Current resistance is the confluence of the Weekly R2 Pivot, the 100% Fibonacci Expansion taken from the April Opening Range Low, and the October High. This range encompasses $50.90-51.09/bbl. Beyond there, price looks only to be targeting higher, and other hard resistance levels appear arbitrary at best though $53.34 & $60.90 do stand out as levels to watch."

Daily price is located above 100 SMA/200 SMA reversal area for the bullish market condition. The price is testing 4-month high at 50.83 for the bullish trend to be continuing. Alvernative, if the price breaks 47.56 support level to below so the secondary correction will be started up to 43.30 support level as the bearish reversal target.

  • If the price will break 50.83 resistance level so the primary bullish trend will be continuing.
  • If price will break 47.56 support so the local downtrend as the secondary correction within the primary bullish trend will be started.
  • If price will break 43.30 support so we may see the reversal of the price movement to the primary bearish market condition to be started with 37.25 level as the possible target in this case.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
Resistance
Support
50.8347.56
N/A
43.30


  • Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 43.30 support level for possible sell trade
  • Recommendation to go long: watch the price to break 50.83 resistance level for possible buy trade
  • Trading Summary: bullish
TREND : daily bullish
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: ISM Manufacturing PMI and 23 pips price movement

2016-06-01 14:00 GMT | [USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry.

==========

"The report was issued today by Bradley J. Holcomb, CPSM, CPSD, chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. "The May PMI® registered 51.3 percent, an increase of 0.5 percentage point from the April reading of 50.8 percent. The New Orders Index registered 55.7 percent, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the April reading of 55.8 percent."

==========

EUR/USD M5: 23 pips price movement by ISM Manufacturing PMI news event


ISM - ISM Report - May 2016 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®
  • www.instituteforsupplymanagement.org
FOR RELEASE: June 1, 2016 May 2016 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® PMI® at 51.3% DO NOT CONFUSE THIS NATIONAL REPORT with the various regional purchasing reports released across the country. The national report's information reflects the entire United States, while the regional reports contain primarily regional data from their local...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australia's International Trade in Goods and Services and 21 pips price movement

2016-06-02 01:30 GMT | [AUD - Trade Balance]

  • past data is -1.97B
  • forecast data is -2.00B
  • actual data is -1.58B according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods and services during the reported month.

==========

  • In trend terms, the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $1,943m in April 2016, a decrease of $434m (18%) on the deficit in March 2016.
  • In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $1,579m in April 2016, a decrease of $392m (20%) on the deficit in March 2016.

==========

AUD/USD M5: 21 pips price movement by Australia's International Trade in Goods and Services news event


5368.0 - International Trade in Goods and Services, Australia, Apr 2016
  • www.abs.gov.au
APRIL KEY FIGURES APRIL KEY POINTS BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES In trend terms, the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $1,943m in April 2016, a decrease of $434m (18%) on the deficit in March 2016. In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $1,579m in April 2016, a decrease of $392m...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

Trading the News: ECB Minimum Bid Rate (based on the article)


  • "The European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision may fail to generate a meaningful market reaction as the Governing Council is widely anticipated to retain the zero-interest rate policy (ZIRP) in June, but the fresh batch of central bank rhetoric may drag on EUR/USD should President Mario Draghi and Co. keep the door open to implement more non-standard measures."
  • "The Euro may struggle to hold its ground should the ECB show a greater willingness to further embark on its easing cycle, but the single-currency may catch a bid if the Governing Council largely endorses a wait-and-see approach all the while the monetary union returns to its historical role as a net-creditor to the rest of the world."

Daily price is on bearish for the ranging near bullish reversal within narrow support/resistance levels:

  • 1.1242 resistance level located above Senkou Span line which is the virtual border between the primary ebarish and the primary bullish trend on the chart, and
  • 1.1105 support level located below Ichimoku clioud in the primary bearish area.


If the price breaks 1.1242 level on close daily bar so the bullish reversal of the price movement will be started on the secondary ranging way. If not so the price will be continuing on the bearish ranging within the levels.


M30 price is located above 200 period SMA for the bullish market condition within 1.1219 resistance and 1.1190 support levels.

If the price breaks 1.1190 support level to below so the secondary correction within the primary bullish condition will be started.
If the price breaks 1.1149 support level so we may see the bearish reversal of the price movement.
If the price breaks 1.1219 resistance so the intra-day bullish trend will be continuing.

EUR/USD to Stage Larger Advance on Wait-and-See ECB
EUR/USD to Stage Larger Advance on Wait-and-See ECB
  • DailyFX
  • www.dailyfx.com
The European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision may fail to generate a meaningful market reaction as the Governing Council is widely anticipated to retain the zero-interest rate policy (ZIRP) in June, but the fresh batch of central bank rhetoric may drag on EUR/USD should President Mario Draghi and Co. keep the door open to implement...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: ECB Minimum Bid Rate and 10 pips price movement

2016-06-02 11:45 GMT | [EUR - Minimum Bid Rate]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for EUR in our case)

[EUR - Minimum Bid Rate] = nterest rate on the main refinancing operations that provide the bulk of liquidity to the banking system.

==========

"At today’s meeting, which was held in Vienna, the Governing Council of the ECB decided that the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 0.00%, 0.25% and -0.40% respectively."

==========

EUR/USD M5: 10 pips price movement by ECB Minimum Bid Rate news event


Monetary policy decisions
Monetary policy decisions
  • European Central Bank
  • www.ecb.europa.eu
At today’s meeting, which was held in Vienna, the Governing Council of the ECB decided that the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 0.00%, 0.25% and -0.40% respectively. Regarding non-standard monetary policy measures, on 8...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: FOMC Member Powell Speaks and 42 pips range price movement

2016-06-02 12:35 GMT | [USD - FOMC Member Powell Speaks]

[USD - FOMC Member Powell Speaks] = speech about the role of regulation in the banking system at the Prudential Regulation Conference, in Washington DC.

==========

EUR/USD M5: 42 pips range price movement by FOMC Member Powell Speaks news event


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news event: bullish ranging above bearish reversal

2016-06-02 15:00 GMT | [USD - Crude Oil Inventories]

[USD - Crude Oil Inventories] = Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week.

==========


"U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 1.4 million barrels from the previous week."

==========

Crude Oil H4: bullish ranging within 4-month high at 50.83 and 10-day low at 47.56. The price is on ranging to be above 200-period SMA and 100-period SMA for the bullish market condition within the following support/resistance levels:

  • 4-month high at 50.83 located far above 100 SMA/200 SMA reversal area in the primary bullish area of the chart, and
  • 10-day low at 47.56 located near and above 200 SMA on the border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend on intra-day chart.


If the price breaks 50.83 resistance level so the intra-day primary bullish trend will be continuing.
If the price breaks 47.56 support so the reversal of the H4 price movement from the primary bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started (in case of daily price - the secondary correction within the primary bullish trend will be started).

If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.

Resistance
Support
50.8348.63
50.2747.56
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: Caixin Services PMI and 20 pips price movement

2016-06-03 01:45 GMT | [CNY - Caixin Services PMI]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNY - Caixin Services PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the services industry.

==========

"Caixin China Composite PMI™ data (which covers both manufacturing and services) pointed to a further increase in total Chinese business activity during May. However, the Composite Output Index posted 50.5, down from 50.8 in April, to signal the slowest rate of expansion in the current three-month sequence of growth. May survey data indicated that overall Chinese business activity growth weakened for the second month in a row, as services activity expanded at a slower rate and manufacturers reported a fractional fall in production for the second consecutive month. Furthermore, it was the weakest increase in service sector business activity since February, with the Caixin China General Services Business Activity Index registering 51.2 in May, down from 51.8 in the previous month."

==========

USD/CNH M5: 20 pips price movement by Caixin Services PMI news event


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  
Trading News Events: U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (adapted from the article)
  • "A 160K expansion in U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) paired with a downtick in the jobless rate may boost the appeal of the greenback and spur a larger pullback in EUR/USD as it fuels expectations for an imminent Fed rate-hike."
  • "The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) may implement higher borrowing-costs over the coming months especially as the U.S. economy approaches ‘full-employment,’ but signs of stagnant wage growth may encourage the central bank to further delay its normalization cycle as officials warn ‘survey-based measures of longer-run inflation expectations were little changed, on balance, in recent months, while market-based measures of inflation compensation were still low.’"


Bullish USD Trade
  • "Need red, five-minute candle following the NFP print to consider a short trade on EUR/USD."
  • "If market reaction favors a bullish dollar trade, sell EUR/USD with two separate position."
  • "Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward."
  • "Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit."
Bearish USD Trade
  • "Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long EUR/USD trade."
  • "Implement same setup as the bullish dollar trade, just in the opposite direction."


Daily price is located near and above SMA with period 200 (200 SMA) for the bullish market condition with the ranging within the following support/resistance levels:

  • 1.1226 resistance located above 200 SMA in the bullish area of the chart, and
  • 1.1097 support level located on the border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend.

RSI indicator is estimating the secondary correction to be continuing up to the possible bearish reversal on the secondary ranging way.

  • If the price will break 1.1226 resistance level on close daily bar so the primary bullish trend will be continuing.
  • If price will break 1.1097 support on close daily bar so the reversal of the price movement from the ranging bullish to the primary bearish trend will be started.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls and 180 pips price movement

2016-06-03 12:30 GMT | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Non-Farm Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.

==========

"The unemployment rate declined by 0.3 percentage point to 4.7 percent in May, and nonfarm payroll employment changed little (+38,000), the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment increased in health care. Mining continued to lose jobs, and employment in information decreased due to a strike."

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EUR/USD M5: 180 pips price movement by U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls news event