Press review - page 404

Chang Suk Chung
616
Chang Suk Chung  

Here is the news about unemployment rate of US.

: Employers in U.S. Add 38,000 Workers, Fewest in Almost Six Years 

Employers in U.S. Add Fewest Workers in Almost Six Years
Employers in U.S. Add Fewest Workers in Almost Six Years
  • 2016.06.03
  • Sho Chandra
  • www.bloomberg.com
Employers in May added the fewest number of workers in almost six years, reflecting broad cutbacks that may raise concern about U.S. growth and prompt Federal Reserve policy makers to put off an increase in interest rates. The addition of 38,000 workers, the fewest since September 2010, followed a 123,000 advance in April that was smaller than...
Chang Suk Chung
616
Chang Suk Chung  

This is about ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI.

May 2016 Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business

ISM - Media Release: May 2016 Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®
  • www.instituteforsupplymanagement.org
FOR RELEASE: June 3, 2016 DO NOT CONFUSE THIS NATIONAL REPORT with the various regional purchasing reports released across the country. The national report's information reflects the entire United States, while the regional reports contain primarily regional data from their local vicinities. Also, the information in the regional reports is...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

Fundamental Weekly Forecasts for Dollar Index, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, and GOLD (based on the article)

Dollar Index - "Chairwoman Yellen’s speech Monday is the last opportunity to realign the market to a probability of a near-term hike. She is the only person – and event – with the authority to change market sentiment. After that, the Fed’s blackout of media silence pre-FOMC starts Wednesday. She not likely to refute skepticism of a June hike. However, if she doesn’t offer perspective to line up a July possibility, the Dollar will certainly have further premium to bleed."


EUR/USD - "The ECB’s inflation target is 2%, like many other major, developed economies. But their inflation projection for 2018 currently sits at 1.6%; a considerable margin away from their own 2% target. These projections do not include measures that have yet to be enacted, such as ECB purchases of Corporate Bonds, or the rebated loans to banks; and each of which could bring huge impacts to markets. Both of these policies come with gigantic question marks as this is the first time we’ve seen a developed economy get this level of assistance from a Central Bank; so, it’s difficult to tell what the end-of-day impact might ultimately be, although the ECB is fairly confident that they’re on the right track."


GBP/USD - "A series of disappointing data prints may further undermine bets for two Fed rate-hikes in 2016 as the central bank remains ‘data-dependent,’ and the fresh batch of central bank rhetoric from Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren and Fed Chair Janet Yellen may dampen the appeal of the greenback should the 2016 voting-members adopt a more dovish outlook for monetary policy. With Fed Funds Futures now highlighting a less than 10% probability for a rate-hike at the June meeting, the greenback may continue to trade on a weaker tone next week amid waning expectations for higher borrowing-costs."


USD/JPY - "Lower US interest rates and unchanged Japanese monetary policy should push the USD/JPY lower with one major caveat: dramatic Yen appreciation could force a strong policy response and potential FX market intervention from the Japanese Ministry of Finance. It is worth noting much the same was said through early May when the USD/JPY last traded near ¥106. A strong statement from the US Treasury Secretary on currency intervention put some of that speculation to rest. Yet caution is warranted on sharp USD/JPY declines—it seems unwise to chase the pair lower on the risk of intervention."

AUD/USD - "Falling back on the long-standing commitment to “data dependency” is likely to be seen as dovish and boost the Aussie. Alternatively, comments suggesting the Fed sees the May number as an anomaly and intends to look through it when deciding whether to hike rates over the next two months – a conceivable outcome considering one-off distortions such as the massive Verizon strike that skewed last month’s payrolls reading – AUD may find itself under pressure along with other anti-USD majors."


GOLD (XAU/USD) - "Heading into next week, the near-term focus remains higher while above Friday’s low. Initial resistance is eyed at 1250 where the 50% retracement of the May decline converges on basic trendline resistance off the yearly high. A breach here would suggest a more meaningful reversal is underway with subsequent topside objectives eyed at the upper median-line parallel, currently around ~1270/71. Note that daily RSI is approaching a resistance trigger and if compromised, would further reinforce the topside near-term outlook. Bottom line: looking for a pullback to stretch into an exhaustion high next week- likely to offer favorable short entries."

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

Forex Weekly Outlook June 05 - June 12 (based on the article)

The dollar eventually crashed on the NFP in a week that was tense until this big event. More losses for the greenback? Speeches by Janet Yellen and Mario Draghi, Australian and New Zealand’s rate decisions stand out now. These are the market movers for this week.

  1. Janet Yellen speaks: Monday, 16:30. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen will give a talk about the economic outlook and monetary policy in Philadelphia. Market volatility is expected.
  2. Australian Rate decision: Tuesday, 4:30. RBA Governor Glenn Stevens said weak inflation was the main reason for this move. Stevens also noted that global economic continued to grow at a slower pace than expected.
  3. Chinese trade balance: Wednesday, 2:00. The bottom line figure of the trade balance report is less important than the changes in imports and exports. Higher levels on both figures is good news for the world and a more “risk on” atmosphere which is favorable for commodity currencies. And a drop in exports and imports is negative.
  4. US Crude Oil Inventories: Wednesday, 14:30. Crude oil prices edged up by about 60 cents after the release.
  5. NZ rate decision: Wednesday. 21:00.
  6. Mario Draghi speaks: Thursday, 7:00. ECB President Mario Draghi will speak at the Brussels Economic Forum. Market volatility is expected.
  7. US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 12:30.
  8. Canadian employment data: Friday, 12:30. Economists expected a modest addition of 200 jobs after the strong growth in March.
  9. US Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment: Friday, 14:00.
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

Intra-Day Fundamentals: Signals from Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen about the US central bank's next rate-hike after payroll data shocks

2016-06-06 16:30 GMT | [USD - Fed Chair Yellen Speaks]

[USD - Fed Chair Yellen Speaks] = Speech about the economic outlook and monetary policy at the World Affairs Council of Philadelphia's luncheon.

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  • "Expectations for the next Fed rate hike were knocked back to at least July or later after US non-farm payroll data on Friday showed US employers added only 38,000 jobs in May, far below expectations of 164,000."
  • "At an event on Monday in Philadelphia, Yellen gets her last chance to offer insight into Fed thinking before a media blackout takes effect ahead of the June 14-15 monetary policy meeting."
  • "We will have to listen carefully for her analysis of what definitely is a deterioration of the labor market conditions," economists at BNP Paribas wrote in a note.

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Credit Agricole:

  • "On the day, investors will pay close attention to the speech by Fed Chair Yellen in Philadelphia looking for clues about the impact of the latest data on the bank's outlook for the economy. Evidence that the FOMC has turned more cautious yet again, could prolong the bout USD weakness."
  • "Against the background of lingering global growth concerns, we expect the USD to be particularly vulnerable against EUR, JPY, gold and, to a lesser extent, CHF."
  • "At the same time, we maintain our bearish outlook for the G10 commodity currencies and see the latest weaker than expected economic data as corroborating that view."

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Live blog and video of Janet Yellen’s speech in Philadelphia:

"The overall labor market situation has been quite positive. In that context, this past Friday’s labor market report was disappointing. Payroll gains were reported to have been much smaller in April and May than earlier in the year, averaging only about 80,000 per month. And while the unemployment rate was reported to have fallen further in May, that decline occurred not because more people had jobs but because fewer people reported that they were actively seeking work."

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EUR/USD M5: 68 pips range price movement by Fed Chair Yellen Speaks news event


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USD/JPY M5: 72 pips range price movement by Fed Chair Yellen Speaks news event


All eyes on Janet Yellen for rate-hike signals
  • Reuters
  • www.businesstoday.in
Investors will be looking for signals from Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen this week about the US central bank's next rate move after shockingly weak payroll data all but killed off chances for a hike this month.
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Md. Shahadat Hossain, 2016.06.06 13:19

i think mkt is manipulated by this brixt news,  gbp has no force to move but with this breixit issue few news es published suddenly and create big movements for gbp.


Emad Bielawska
9
Emad Bielawska  

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Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  
Emad Bielawska:

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Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

Gold Prices Recovery Friday’s NFP report: daily bullish resumed; intra-day rally to the bullish reversal (based on the article)


"We looked at the precipitous fall in Gold prices on the back of a more hawkish Federal Reserve that spent much of the month of May talking up the prospect of higher rates in the United States. This prospect of higher rates was a huge change-of-pace for markets, which had built-in the expectation for the Fed to be extremely dovish after the risk-aversion that put up sizeable moves at the beginning of the year. And that inferred dovishness was hugely helpful to Gold prices, along with Equities and Commodities, as global markets appeared to be operating under the assumption that the Fed would do what they’ve been doing for the past six years by being dovish and passive with extremely loose monetary policy."



"But that about-face in May brought on a huge change of pace to the US Dollar, and this had an enormous impact on Gold prices. After tagging the $1,301 resistance level in the early portion of the month, Gold prices fell all the way back to the $1,200.41 Fibonacci level, which is the 61.8% retracement of the 45-year move in Gold prices, taking the 1968 low of $34.95 to the 2011 high at $1,920.80. Coming into June, Gold was continuing to dwindle near support at $1,207.69, which is the 38.2% retracement of the most recent major move."



"Friday’s NFP report provided a dose of cold water to those June rate hike expectations, as an abysmal print gave the appearance of a weaker US economy than initially hoped, and this brought in a significant bout of USD-weakness across the currency spectrum. Gold caught a significant bid, rallying all the way into a prior zone of support at $1,245.83, which is also the 23.6% retracement of the most recent major move, taking the January 2015 high to the December 2015 low. Since running into that resistance, price action has built-in to a box formation on the 4-hour chart, and this can be used to further help traders looking to set up the short-side position. Traders can look for a quick break of near-term price action support to denote down-side continuation potential. Should this break take place, traders can then begin to look to trigger the short position by looking for a price action reversal at resistance around current support of ~ $1,240."

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: RBA Cash Rate and 64 pips price movement

2016-06-07 04:30 GMT | [AUD - RBA Cash Rate]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - RBA Cash Rate] = Interest rate charged on overnight loans between financial intermediaries.

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AUD/USD M5: 64 pips price movement by RBA Cash Rate news event