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Forecast for Q2'16 - levels for USD/CAD - page 3

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.05.25 16:25

USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: BoC Overnight Rate and 69 pips price movement

2016-05-25 14:00 GMT | [CAD - Overnight Rate]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CAD in our case)

[CAD - Overnight Rate] = Interest rate at which major financial institutions borrow and lend overnight funds between themselves.

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"The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1/2 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 3/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 1/4 per cent."

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USD/CAD M5: 69 pips price movement by BoC Overnight Rate news event



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Sergey Golubev, 2016.05.28 15:43

Fundamental Weekly Forecasts for Dollar Index, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CAD and GOLD (based on the article)

USD/CAD - "With USD/CAD largely failing to preserve the upward trend from early May, the near-term advance in the exchange rate may ultimately turn out to be a failed attempt to test the April high (1.3218), and the pair may continue to give back the rebound from 1.2460 should the key data prints out of the U.S. and Canada spur a further shift in the monetary policy outlook."




Daily price is located below 100 SMA/200 SMA reversal area for the bearish market condition: the price is ranging within 1.2836 support level and 1.3187 resistance level. Symmetric triangle pattern was formed by the price to be crossed for direction of the bullish reversal to be started or the bearish trend to be continuing.


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Sergey Golubev, 2016.05.31 14:45

USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Canada's Gross Domestic Product and 46 pips price movement

2016-05-31 12:30 GMT | [CAD - GDP]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CAD in our case)

[CAD - GDP] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

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  • "Real gross domestic product decreased 0.2% in March, after edging down 0.1% in February. The decline in March came primarily from mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction and retail trade."
  • "The mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction sector was the main reason for a 0.8% decline in the output of goods-producing industries. Manufacturing and the agriculture and forestry sector were also down. There was a rise in construction output, while utilities were essentially unchanged."
  • "The output of service-producing industries was essentially unchanged in March. Notable drops in retail trade and, to a lesser extent, the transportation and warehousing sector were offset by small gains in several service industries. Wholesale trade was also down, while the public sector (education, health and public administration combined) edged up."

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USD/CAD M5: 46 pips price movement by Canada's Gross Domestic Product news event



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Sergey Golubev, 2016.06.09 17:47

USD/CAD Fundamentals: BOC Financial System Review and 34 pips price movement

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2016-06-09 14:30 GMT | [CAD - BOC Financial System Review]

[CAD - BOC Financial System Review] = Assessment of conditions in the financial system and potential risks to financial stability.

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USD/CAD M5: 34 pips price movement by BOC Financial System Review news event


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USD/CAD Daily Technicals: 1.2654 support to be testing for 2-month low at 1.2460 as a nearest bearish target

Daily price is located below 100 SMA/200 SMA for the primary bearish market condition: the price is breaking 1.2654 support to below for the 2-month low at 1.2460 as a next bearish target

  • If the price will break 2-month high at 1.3296 to above so the reversal of the price movement from the primary bearish to the primary bullish trend will be started..
  • If price will break 1.2654 support so the bearish trend will be continuing with 1.2460 as a possible target to re-enter.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
Resistance
Support
1.32961.2654
1.38281.2460


  • Recommendation to go short: watch close daily price to break 1.2654 support level for possible sell trade
  • Recommendation to go long: watch close daily price to break 1.3296 resistance level for possible buy trade
  • Trading Summary: bearish
SUMMARY : bearish

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.06.10 11:53

Trading News Events: Canada's Employment Change (adapted from the article)

"Despite forecasts for an uptick in the jobless rate, a 1.8K rebound in Canada Employment may heighten the appeal of the loonie and spur a near-term decline in USD/CAD as the data highlights an improved outlook for growth and inflation."

What’s Expected:



Why Is This Event Important:

"Even though the Bank of Canada (BoC) retains a cautious outlook for the real economy, Governor Stephen Poloz and Co. may stick to the sidelines throughout 2016 and show a greater willingness to gradually move away from its easing cycle especially as Prime Minister Justin Trudeau implements fiscal support to encourage a stronger recovery."

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USD/CAD Technical Analysis: bearish ranging near bullish reversal within narrow s/r levels waiting for direction

Daily price was on breakout with the bearish reversal: price broke Ichimoku cloud to below to be reversed to the primary bearish market condition. For now, the price is moved along one of the Senkou Span line for the bullish trend to be resumed or for the bearish trend to be continuing.

Absolute Strength indicator is estimating the ranging condition, and Trend Strength indicator is evaluating the trend as the primary bearish in the near future.

If D1 price will break 1.2654 support level on close bar so the primary bearish trend will be continuing with 1.2460 level as a possible bearish target.
If D1 price will break 1.3187 resistance level on close bar so the price will be reversed back to the bullish market condition.
If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.


  • Recommendation for long: watch close D1 price to break 1.3187 for possible buy trade
  • Recommendation to go short: watch D1 price to break 1.2654 support level for possible sell trade
  • Trading Summary: bearish ranging near bullish reversal
Resistance
Support
1.31871.2654
N/A
1.2460

SUMMARY : bearish

TREND : waiting to break the levels for direction

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USD/CAD M5: 85 pips price movement by Canada's Employment Change news event


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Sergey Golubev, 2016.06.11 10:11

Fundamental Weekly Forecasts for Dollar Index, NZD/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/CNH, USD/JPY, AUD/USD and GOLD (based on the article)

USD/CAD - "A minor data point compared to the inflation reading on Friday will be the Manufacturing Sales on Wednesday. The prior print of -0.9% MoM and 3.1% annualized will be a basis to compare Wednesday print. However, the print will be discounted given the large macro even south of the border when the Federal Reserve releases their June rate decision at 2:00 pm EST." 




Forecast for Tomorrow - levels for USD/CAD

H4 intra-day price is located below Ichimoku cloud in the bearish area of the chart: the price is on bear market rally to be started on open H4 bar by 1.2766 resistance level to be broken on the open bar for now. Absolute Strength indicator is estimating the secondary rally to be started, and if H4 bar is goint to be opened above 1.2766 level on Monday so the rally will be started, if not so the price will be on bearish ranging within narrow s/r levels.

If H4 price will break 1.2654 support level on close bar so the primary bearish trend will be continuing.
If H4 price will break 1.2766 resistance level on close bar so the local uptrend as the secondary market rally will be started.
If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.


  • Recommendation for long: watch close H4 close price to break 1.2766 for possible buy trade
  • Recommendation to go short: watch H4 close price to break 1.2654 support level for possible sell trade
  • Trading Summary: bearish
Resistance
Support
1.27661.2654
1.3105
N/A

SUMMARY : bearish

TREND : bear market rally

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.06.15 15:00

USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Canada's Manufacturing Shipments and 18 pips range price movement

2016-06-15 12:30 GMT | [CAD - Manufacturing Sales]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CAD in our case)

[CAD - Manufacturing Sales] = Change in the total value of sales made by manufacturers.

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USD/CAD M5: 18 pips range price movement by Canada's Manufacturing Shipments news event



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Sergey Golubev, 2016.06.17 11:41

Trading News Events: Canada Consumer Price Index (CPI) (adapted from the article)


  • "A slowdown in Canada’s headline & core Consumer Price Index (CPI) may drag on the loonie and fuel the near-term advance in USD/CAD as it puts pressure on the Bank of Canada (BoC) to further support the real economy."
  • "Even though BoC Governor Stephen Poloz sticks to the sidelines in 2016 and largely endorse a wait-and-see approach for monetary policy, the central bank may revert back to its easing cycle in an effort to encourage a stronger recovery."
  • "Canada’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) climbed an annualized 1.7% in April following the 1.3% expansion the month prior, while the core rate of inflation unexpectedly advanced 2.2% during the same period amid forecasts for a 2.0% print. A deeper look at the report showed transportation costs increased 2.0% as energy prices climbed 3.8%, while prices for clothing and footwear held flat in April, with food costs falling 0.5% following a 0.3% contraction in March. Despite the stronger-than-expected CPI report, the Canadian dollar struggled to hold its ground, with USD/CAD climbing back above the 1.3100 handle to end the day at 1.3107."

H4 price is located near SMA with period 100 (100-SMA) and SMA with the period 200 (200-SMA) waiting for the direction for the possible breakout or breakdown.

  • If the price will break 1.2983 resistance level on close H4 bar so we may see the bullish trend to be started on this timeframe.
  • If price will break 1.2818 support so the bearish trend will be continuing.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
Resistance
Support
1.2983
1.2818
1.3085
1.2654


SUMMARY : ranging

TREND : waiting for direction

USD/CAD M5: 22 pips range price movement by Canada's Consumer Price Index news event


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Sergey Golubev, 2016.06.22 11:31

Trading News Events: Canada Retail Sales (adapted from the article)


  • "A 0.8% rebound in Canada Retail Sales may heighten the appeal of the loonie and spark a near-term decline in USD/CAD as it boosts the outlook for growth and inflation."
  • "The Bank of Canada (BoC) may largely endorse a wait-and-see approach throughout the remainder of the year as Governor Stephen Poloz turns upbeat towards the economy, and the central bank may gradually move away from its easing cycle after implementing the ‘insurance’ rate-cuts in 2015."
  • "Canada Retail Sales slumped 1.0% in March after expanding a revised 0.6% during the previous month. A deeper look at the report showed demand for furniture & home furnishings declined 3.7% to lead the decline, with food & beverage sales contracting 0.4%, while discretionary spending on clothing and accessories increased 0.8% during the same period. The Canadian dollar struggled to hold its ground following the weak consumption report, with USD/CAD climbing above the 1.3100 handle to end the day at 1.3107."

H4 price is on ranging below 200 SMA on the bearish area of the chart within the narrow support/resistance level such as the following:

  • 1.2761 support level located below 200 SMA in the bearish area of the chart, and
  • 50.0% Fibo resistance level at 1.2923 located near 200 SMA on the border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend.

Ascending triangle pattern was formed by the price to be crossed for the local uptrend as the secondary rally to be started in the near future.

  • If the price will break 1.2923 resistance level on close H4 bar so we may see the bullish trend to be started on this timeframe.
  • If price will break 1.2761 support so the bearish trend will be continuing.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
Resistance
Support
1.29231.2761
1.3085
N/A


SUMMARY : ranging

TREND : bearish


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Sergey Golubev, 2016.06.22 14:42

USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Canada Retail Sales and 34 pips price movement

2016-06-22 12:30 GMT | [CAD - Retail Sales]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CAD in our case)

[CAD - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level.

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  • "The members of the Reserve Bank of Australia's monetary policy board said that low inflation allowed them to keep the nation's benchmark lending rate steady at a record low. Following a 0.8% decline in March, retail sales rose 0.9% to $44.3 billion in April. Sales were up in 7 of 11 subsectors, representing 64% of total retail sales."
  • "Higher sales at gasoline stations were the main contributor to the gain. Excluding sales at gasoline stations, retail sales advanced 0.4%."
  • "After removing the effects of price changes, particularly higher gasoline prices, retail sales in volume terms were relatively flat in April."

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USD/CAD M5: 34 pips price movement by Canada Retail Sales news event


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USD/CAD M5: the price is on bearish breakdown by breaking key support levels together with descending triangle pattern to below for the intra-day bearish trend to be continuing.
If the price breaks 1.2741 support level to below on close M5 bar so the bearish breakdown will be continuing, otherwise - ranging bearish.



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