'Project Panic' rather than love may keep Britain in EU
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Panic rather than love may keep Britain in the European Union when voters cast their ballots in a referendum, probably in June, on whether to stay in the 28-nation bloc under Prime Minister David Cameron's "new settlement".
While few may be swayed by the lightly amended membership terms, a plunging currency, tumbling share prices and fears for property values could drive enough Britons to opt at the last minute for the status quo rather than a leap into the unknown.
That was how the British political establishment managed by the skin of its teeth to hold the United Kingdom together in 2014, when Scottish voters tempted by the centuries-old dream of regaining independence from England ultimately chose safety.
It is also a plausible scenario for the EU vote, especially since a decision to leave would reopen the Scottish question.
Ordinary Brits tempted to give the unloved "Europe" a kicking may plump for stability to avoid economic uncertainty rather than risk financial and political turmoil.
In Scotland, the communications director of the "Better Together" campaign, Rob Shorthouse, got into trouble for joking that his strategy was "Project Fear". The idea that unionist campaigners were setting out to frighten voters stirred outrage in the nationalist camp, but it proved effective.
Eurosceptics accuse Cameron of planning a similar scare campaign now, but events may produce the same impact even without political orchestration.
Two weeks before the Scottish vote in September 2014, a single opinion poll showed independence supporters had taken a slender lead for the first time. That jolted financial markets and prompted banks and insurers to announce contingency plans to move their headquarters south of the border amid uncertainty over what currency an independent Scotland would use.
Economic anxiety trumped political adventure in the final days of campaigning, with British leaders rushing to Scotland to tell Scots how much the rest of the United Kingdom valued them, and how they were "better off together".
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