Press review - page 402

Sergey Golubev
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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2016.05.27 10:36

Intra-Day Levels
EURUSD H1

The price is located below 200 SMA for the bearish market condition - price is on ranging around 100 SMA waiting for direction of the trend:

  • for the ranging bearish in case the price will be inside 100 SMA/200 SMA area, and
  • for the primary bearish trend to be continuing in case the price will be located below 100 SMA/200 SMA area.


If the price breaks 1.1174 support level on close hourly bar so the primary bearish trend will be continuing up to 1.1138 as a good target to re-enter.
If the price breaks 1.1236 resistance level on close hourly bar so the reversal of the price movement from the ranging bearish to the primary bullish trend will be started.
If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels waiting for direction.


EUR/USD M5: 20 pips price movement by U.S. Gross Domestic Product news event :


H1 price broke 1.1174 support level to below on close H1 bar for the bearish trend to be continuing: the price is breaking 1.1152 level for breakdown with 1.1128 bearish target. Alternative, if the price crossed 1.1200 resistance to above so the reversal of the price movement to the bullish condition will be started.


Sergey Golubev
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Forex Weekly Outlook May 30 - Jun 3 (based on the article)

The US dollar had a positive week despite a lack of really convincing data. GDP from Canada and Australia, a buildup to the Non-Farm Payrolls, OPEC Meetings and the ECB decision stand out in a very busy week.

  1. Canadian GDP data: Tuesday, 12:30. March GDP is expected to remain flat.
  2. US CB Consumer Confidence: Tuesday, 14:00. Consumer confidence is expected to reach 96.1 in May.
  3. Australian GDP data: Wednesday, 1:30. Economists expect GDP to grow 0.6%  in the first quarter.
  4. Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI: Wednesday, 1:45. A minor drop is expected for May: from 49.4 to 49.3 points.
  5. US ISM Manufacturing PMI: Wednesday, 14:00. The manufacturing sector is expected to remain in the grow zone with 50.6.
  6. OPEC Meetings: Thursday. Mohammed bin Saleh al-Sada president of OPEC said a minimum price of $65 a barrel is "badly needed at the moment."
  7. ECB Rate decision: Thursday, 11:45. 
  8. US ADP Non-Farm Payrolls: Thursday, 12:15. ADP non-farm payrolls is expected to register a job gain of 179,000.
  9. US Unemployment Claims: Thursday 12:30. The number of new jobless claims is expected to reach 271,000 this week.
  10. US Crude Oil Inventories: Thursday, 15:00.
  11. US Non-Farm Payrolls: Friday, 12:30. Non-Farm Payrolls is expected to show a job addition of 160,000 while the unemployment rate forecast is 4.9%.
  12. US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: Friday, 14:00. U.S. service sector is expected to expand to 55.4 this time.
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
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Fundamental Weekly Forecasts for Dollar Index, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CAD and GOLD (based on the article)

Dollar Index - "Meaningful fundamental impetus is needed to force critical technical Dollar breaks and forge follow through on an already impressive trend. Quiet is not a foregone conclusion – in fact is unlikely. Not only will Fed debate of a hike carry global repercussions; but we will see broad waves with the Brexit, oil prices, monetary policy accommodation failing to prop growth (ECB, BoJ), China capital flight and a host of other issues threaten to swell in the foreseeable future."


GBP/USD - "Due to the extreme opacity surrounding the upcoming referendum; with most polls showing a relatively even split amongst votes to ‘leave’ or ‘stay,’ and considering the profound economic impact that either decision may have on the economic future of the United Kingdom, the fundamental forecast for the British Pound will remain at neutral until one of the underlying facts change."



USD/JPY - "The key question is straightforward: will the US Federal Reserve raise interest rates for only the second time in 10 years at their June 15 meeting? Current interest rate pricing shows an approximate 35 percent likelihood of a 25bps rate hike—up substantially from a less than 5 percent chance shown just two weeks ago. It is perhaps unsurprising to note the interest-rate-sensitive USD/JPY exchange rate has rallied noticeably as odds have improved for a Fed hike. And we expect that any strong positive surprises in inflation and labor data could only help Fed expectations - moving the USD/JPY in kind."


AUD/USD - "On balance, the combination of an increasingly dovish policy outlook at home and an ever-more confidently hawkish one in the US seem likely to make for continued Aussie weakness. Jitters surrounding the “Brexit” referendum represent a wild card. As the June 23 vote approaches, polls have widened somewhat in favor of the “remain” campaign. More of the same may bolster risk appetite as worries about an unprecedented rupture within the EU core unravel. This may prove supportive for the sentiment-linked Australian unit."


USD/CAD - "With USD/CAD largely failing to preserve the upward trend from early May, the near-term advance in the exchange rate may ultimately turn out to be a failed attempt to test the April high (1.3218), and the pair may continue to give back the rebound from 1.2460 should the key data prints out of the U.S. and Canada spur a further shift in the monetary policy outlook."


GOLD (XAU/USD) - "Interim resistance stands at the 1242/46 with our bearish invalidation level at 1256. A rally surpassing the upper median-line parallel (~1270) would be needed to shift the broader focus back to the long-side. A break lower targets subsequent support objectives at the 1191 pivot & the 50% retracement of the advance off the December lows at 1175."


Sergey Golubev
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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2014.01.23 11:01

Margin Call (adapted from dailyfx.com article)

  • A Short Introduction to Margin & Leverage
  • Causes of Margin Calls
  • How to Avoid Margin Calls

To get a grasp on what a margin call is, you should understand the purpose and use of Margin & Leverage. Margin & Leverage are two sides of the same coin. The purpose of either is to help you control a contract larger than your account balance. Simply put, margin is the amount required to hold the trade open. Leverage is the multiple of exposure to account equity. Therefore, if you have an account with a value of $10,000 but you would like to buy a 100,000 contract for EURUSD, you would be required to put up $800 for margin in an account leaving $9,200 in usable margin. Usable Margin should be seen as a safety net and you should protect your usable margin at all costs.

Causes of a Margin Call


To understand the cause of a margin call is the first step. The second and more beneficial step is learning understanding how to stay far away from a potential margin call. The short answer as to understand what causes a margin call is simple, you’ve run out of usable margin.

The second and promised more beneficial step is to understand what depletes your usable margin and stay away from those activities. In risk of oversimplifying the causes, here are the top causes for margin calls which you should avoid like the plague (presented in no specific order):

  • Holding on to a losing trade too long which depletes Usable Margin
  • Overleveraging your account combined with the 1st reason
  • An underfunded account which will force you to over trade with too little usable margin

What Happens When A Margin Call Takes Place?

When a margin call takes place, you are liquidated or closed out of your trades. The purpose is two-fold: you no longer have the money in your account to hold the losing positions and the broker is now on the line for your losses which is equally bad for the broker.

How to Avoid Margin Calls

Leverage is often and fittingly referred to as a double-edged sword. The purpose of that statement is that the larger leverage you use to hold a trade greater than some large multiple of your account, the less usable margin you have to absorb any losses. The sword only cuts deeper if an over-leveraged trade goes against you as the gains can quickly deplete your account and when your usable margin % hits, zero, you will receive a margin call. This only gives further credence to the reason of using protective stops while cutting your losses as short as possible.


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AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Company Gross Operating Profits and 24 pips price movement

2016-05-30 01:30 GMT | [AUD - Company Operating Profits]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Company Operating Profits] = Change in the total value of profits earned by corporations.

==========

  • The trend estimate for inventories rose 0.1% in the March quarter 2016. The seasonally adjusted estimate rose 0.4% this quarter.
  • The trend estimate for Manufacturing sales of goods and services fell 1.0% this quarter. The seasonally adjusted estimate fell 0.3% this quarter.
  • The trend estimate for Wholesale trade sales of goods and services rose 1.8% this quarter. The seasonally adjusted estimate rose 3.2%.
  • The seasonally adjusted estimate for company gross operating profits fell 4.7% in the March quarter 2016.
  • The seasonally adjusted estimate for wages and salaries rose 0.6% in the March quarter 2016.

==========

AUD/USD M5: 24 pips price movement by Company Gross Operating Profits news event


5676.0 - Business Indicators, Australia, Mar 2016
  • www.abs.gov.au
MARCH KEY FIGURES MARCH KEY POINTS CHAIN VOLUME ESTIMATES The trend estimate for inventories rose 0.1% in the March quarter 2016. The seasonally adjusted estimate rose 0.4% this quarter. The trend estimate for Manufacturing sales of goods and services fell 1.0% this quarter. The seasonally adjusted estimate fell 0.3% this quarter. The...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
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Sergey Golubev  

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australian Building Approvals and 63 pips price movement

2016-05-31 01:30 GMT | [AUD - Building Approvals]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Building Approvals] = Change in the number of new building approvals issued.

==========


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AUD/USD M5: 63 pips price movement by Australia Building Approvals news event


8731.0 - Building Approvals, Australia, Apr 2016
  • www.abs.gov.au
APRIL KEY FIGURES APRIL KEY POINTS TOTAL DWELLING UNITS The trend estimate for total dwellings approved rose 1.2% in April and has risen for five months. The seasonally adjusted estimate for total dwellings approved rose 3.0% in April and has risen for two months. PRIVATE SECTOR HOUSES The trend estimate for private sector houses...
Sergey Golubev
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USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Canada's Gross Domestic Product and 46 pips price movement

2016-05-31 12:30 GMT | [CAD - GDP]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CAD in our case)

[CAD - GDP] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

==========

  • "Real gross domestic product decreased 0.2% in March, after edging down 0.1% in February. The decline in March came primarily from mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction and retail trade."
  • "The mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction sector was the main reason for a 0.8% decline in the output of goods-producing industries. Manufacturing and the agriculture and forestry sector were also down. There was a rise in construction output, while utilities were essentially unchanged."
  • "The output of service-producing industries was essentially unchanged in March. Notable drops in retail trade and, to a lesser extent, the transportation and warehousing sector were offset by small gains in several service industries. Wholesale trade was also down, while the public sector (education, health and public administration combined) edged up."

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USD/CAD M5: 46 pips price movement by Canada's Gross Domestic Product news event


The Daily — Gross domestic product by industry, March 2016
  • 2016.05.31
  • www.statcan.gc.ca
Real gross domestic product decreased 0.2% in March, after edging down 0.1% in February. The decline in March came primarily from mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction and retail trade.
Sergey Golubev
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EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: The Conference Board Consumer Confidence and 48 pips price movement

2016-05-31 14:00 GMT | [USD - CB Consumer Confidence]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - CB Consumer Confidence] = Change in the total value of profits earned by corporations.

==========

"Consumer confidence declined slightly in May, primarily due to consumers rating current conditions less favorably than in April," said Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. "Expectations declined further, as consumers remain cautious about the outlook for business and labor market conditions. Thus, they continue to expect little change in economic activity in the months ahead."


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EUR/USD M5: 48 pips price movement by The Conference Board Consumer Confidence news event


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
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Sergey Golubev  

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australia's Gross Domestic Product and 57 pips price movement

2016-06-01 01:30 GMT | [AUD - GDP]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - GDP] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

==========


  • The March quarter 2016 National accounts show the Australian economy growing by 1.1% in seasonally adjusted chain volume terms.
  • The major driver of economic growth this quarter came from Exports which contributed 1.0 percentage point and Household final consumption expenditure contributing 0.4 percentage points.
  • The increase in Exports is reflected in the growth observed in Mining production (6.2%). Growth was also observed in the service industries of Financial and insurance services (1.8%), Accommodation and food services (1.5%), and Arts and recreation services (0.9%).
  • The largest detractor from growth was Private gross fixed capital formation which fell 2.2%, this was driven by falls in New engineering construction (-6.4%) and New buildings (-6.9%).
  • The Terms of trade fell by 1.9%, reflecting a fall in the price of exports relative to the price of imports.

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AUD/USD M5: 57 pips price movement by Australia's Gross Domestic Product news event


Sergey Golubev
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USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: Caixin Manufacturing PMI and 92 pips price movement

2016-06-01 01:45 GMT | [CNY - Caixin Manufacturing PMI]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNY - Caixin Manufacturing PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry.

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USD/CNH M30: 92 pips price movement by Caixin Manufacturing PMI news event