Technical Setups For EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, AUD/USD - Credit Suisse (based on fxstreet article)
EUR/USD: EURUSD holds a bearish "wedge" and a “head & shoulders” top for 1.3374 initially, then 1.3248.
EURUSD continues to consolidate recent losses, and with minor
resistance levels still as yet still unchallenged and a large bear
"wedge" pattern and now also "head & shoulders" top in place, we
stay directly bearish. We look for further weakness to 1.3399 initially,
then the 50% retracement of the 2013/14 rise at 1.3374. We allow for a
bounce here ahead of our target at 1.3248/28 – the 38.2% retracement of
the entire 2012/2014 uptrend. While we would expect this to hold at
first, bigger picture, we see scope for 1.2755.
Resistance shows at 1.3486/95 initially, above which can see a move back to 1.3531, with 1.3550/53 ideally capping to keep the immediate risk lower.
Technical Setups For AUD/USD - Credit Suisse (based on fxstreet article)
AUD/USD: Price support at .9380 ideally holds to keep the immediate risk higher.
AUDUSD has staged a reversal lower, but while still holding above
.9380, the immediate risk can stay higher for a move back to the .9472
recent high. Above here can then see a challenge of the 2014 high at
.9506 where we would expect to find a ceiling. However, a direct
extension of strength can see a move towards the 38.2% retracement of
the decline from 2011/2014 at .9584, with better sellers expected here.
Immediate support shows at .9380. A break below here is needed to ease the immediate upside bias, for weakness back to .9322/18.
Mondays EURUSD Reversal Range (based on dailyfx article)
The EURUSD has opened the trading week within a 30
pip trading range. Resistance, as marked above by the R3 camarilla
pivot, resides at 1.3445. Support is currently held below at 1.3415 as
marked by S3 support. Range traders will look to take advantage of
prices reversals inside of the range as the EURUSD drifts towards either
of these pre-defined values.
AUDUSD – Stable Ahead of US Housing Data (based on marketpulse article)
The Australian dollar often takes its riders on roller coaster rides,
but AUD/USD has been unusually subdued, with little movement since
early June. Strong US numbers have not translated into gains for the US
dollar, as the Aussie continues to trade at high levels and the
occasional jab buy the RBA that the Aussie is overvalued has failed to
push the currency to lower levels. This week's key events out of
Australia are Building Approvals and PPI, and unexpected readings could
shake up AUD/USD.
The US ended the week on a high note, courtesy of strong data from
the manufacturing sector. Core Durable Goods Orders jumped 0.8%, beating
the estimate of 0.6%, and rebounding nicely from a decline of 0.1% in
May. Durable Goods Orders followed suit, posting a gain of 0.7%,
compared to a weak reading of -1.0% last month. This easily surpassed
the estimate of 0.4%. Unemployment Claims tumbled last week, as the key
indicator fell to 284 thousand, its lowest level since February 2008.
This surprised the markets, which had expected a reading of 310
thousand. The strong release continues a string of solid employment
data, which has helped the dollar. As well, positive news on the
employment front is bound to increase speculation about a rate increase
by the Federal Reserve.
Further levels in both directions:
EUR/USD firms on disappointing U.S. home sales data
In U.S. trading, EUR/USD was up 0.08% at 1.3440, up from a session low of 1.3427 and off a high of 1.3442.
The pair was likely to find support at 1.3421, Friday's low, and resistance at 1.3485, Thursday's high.
dollar took a hit on Monday after the National Association of Realtors
reported that U.S. pending home sales fell 1.1% in June, disappointing
expectations for a 0.5% gain.
What Could Make Or Break the Dollar This Week? (based on forexminute article)
Last week was a really good week to be a dollar bull. The currency
gained against all of its major counterparts and even established new
highs against some. EUR/USD is currently trading at its 8-month lows
around 1.3430; GBP/USD tapped its 4-week lows around 1.6960; USD/CAD is
at its 5-week highs above 1.08100.
However, the currency’s fate on the charts could quickly turn this
week as the focus shifts back to the United States and the reports due
out of the country. The following are the biggest event risks for
USD-pairs in the next few days:
1. Q2 2014 Advance GDP
Price action should start to get interesting by Wednesday when the
advance GDP report for the second quarter of 2014 is released. Due at
6:00 pm GMT, the report is anticipated to print at 3.1%.
Analysts expect a rebound from the weakness in economic growth that
we saw in the first three months of the year because the weather has
significantly improved and should not have hampered economic activity
anymore in April to June.
2. FOMC Statement
Policymakers are then scheduled to take center stage with the Federal
Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement. At 6:00 pm GMT on Wednesday,
July 30, no changes to interest rates are expected to be announced.
The Federal Reserve has been notably optimistic about labor market
conditions in its past few announcements. And so, market participants
will be looking for traces of the central bank’s positivity in this
week’s upcoming statement too. The lack of which may cause the dollar to
give up ground against some of its counterparts.
3. NFP report for July
The jobs report for July is arguably the biggest market-mover for the
dollar this week. On Friday, August 1, at 12:30 pm GMT, markets expect
to see another month of strong job growth with the forecast up at
230,000 to follow the 288,000 reading that we saw for June.
Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen as well as other key Fed
policymakers have been vocal about how important the health of the labor
market is in their future monetary policy decisions. And so, the
release could once again spark volatility in the markets, like it
usually does every month.