EUR/USD Forecast Dec. 28 – Jan. 1 (based on the article)EUR/USD gained some ground ahead of the Christmas holiday and edged closer to 1.10. The last week of the year features two figures. Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.Spain’s elections resulted in a hung parliament and this stirred some worries, worries that support the euro on safe haven flows. However, some of the moves are related to end-of-year action. In the US, we learned that final GDP is 2% in Q3, within expectations. Housing disappointed while durable goods orders were OK.
GBP/USD Forecast Dec. 28 – Jan. 1 (based on the article)
GBP/USD showed some downward movement but ended the week unchanged, closing at 1.4925. The final week of 2015 has just two events on the schedule. Here is an outlook on the major events moving the pound and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD.
In the US, Final GDP for the third quarter posted a gain of 2%, very close to the estimate. Housing numbers disappointed, and durable goods were weak, but within expectations.
Forex Forecast 2015 Dec. 27 – 2016 Jan. 01
2015-12-27 23:50 GMT | [JPY - Retail Sales]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for JPY in our case)
[JPY - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level.
2015-12-29 13:30 GMT | [USD - International Trade in Goods]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)
[USD - International Trade in Goods] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the reported month.
2015-12-29 15:00 GMT | [USD - Consumer Confidence]
[USD - Consumer Confidence] = Level of a composite index based on surveyed households.
2015-12-30 15:00 GMT | [USD - Pending Home Sales]
[USD - Pending Home Sales] = Change in the number of homes under contract to be sold but still awaiting the closing transaction, excluding new construction.
2015-12-31 13:30 GMT | [USD - Jobless Claims]
if actual < forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)
[USD - Jobless Claims] = The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week.
2015-12-31 14:45 GMT | [USD - Chicago PMI]
[USD - Chicago PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the Chicago area.
2016-01-01 14:45 GMT | [CNY - Manufacturing PMI]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)
[CNY - Manufacturing PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry.
Bank of Montreal - oil will slide to $25, $20, even as low as $15 in 2016 (based on the article)
Could oil prices collapse to $20?
"The short answer is ‘yes.’ We believe that crude oil prices could fall further unless global oil production is reduced. As
shown in Table 2, we estimate that the global oil market could be
oversupplied by roughly 920,000 bpd in 2016. The key assumptions are
year-over-year growth in global demand of 1.2 million bpd, Saudi Arabia,
Iraq and Libya hold production at current levels, Iran ramps up
production at moderate pace over the course of the year and the U.S. rig
count remains at current levels."
Something to read - 6 Interesting Trading Articles (based on the article)
Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
Forecast for Q1'16 - levels for USD/JPY
Sergey Golubev, 2015.12.28 06:44
USD/JPY Intra-Day Fundamentals - Retail Sales and 32 pips price movement
USDJPY M5: 32 pips price movement by JPY - Retail Sales news event :
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Waiting to Confirm Head and Shoulders Pattern Before Triggering Short Trade (based on the article)
As we see from the chart above - the weekly price is on primary bearish market condition to be below 100 SMA/200 SMA, and 1.0803 support is 23.6% Fibo level which is located near and below the market price for now.
The bullish reversal resistance level is Fibo resistance at 1.1812, and if the price breaks it to above so the reversal of the price movement from the primary bearish to the primary bullish condition will be started.
By the way, the bearish 'reversal' level for this timeframe is Fibo support at 1.0520, and the price will be continuing with the bearish condition by breaking this level to below.
EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals - International Trade in Goods and 38 pips price movement
EURUSD M5: 38 pips price movement by USD - International Trade in Goods news event :
EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals - Consumer Confidence and 12 pips price movement
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index®,
which had decreased moderately in November, improved in December. The
Index now stands at 96.5 (1985=100), up from 92.6 in November. The
Present Situation Index increased from 110.9 last month to 115.3 in
December, while the Expectations Index improved to 83.9 from 80.4 in
EURUSD M5: 12 pips price movement by USD - Consumer Confidence news event :
Central Bank Calendar 2016
Mohammad Soubra, 2015.12.30 01:30