EUR/USD: short-term strategy, long-term strategy and the levels to watch - Swiss Finance Corporation (based on the article)
As we see from the chart above - the price (H4) is on bullish market condition for the secondary ranging within s/r levels waiting for direction:
AUD/USD Technical Analysis: re-enter for short (based on the article)
Anyway, H4 price is located near 100 period SMA on the border between the primary bullish and the ranging bearish trend on the chart with the symmetric triangle pattern to be crossed for direction:
EUR/USD: trading ideas by Societe Generale (based on the article)
SocGen made a long-term forecast for EUR/USD confirmed that 1.05/1.04 levels as the medium-term target will be extended in downmove to 0.96/0.95 target in the long-term situation.
As we see from the chart above (EUR/USD, D1) - the price is on bear market rally within the primary bearish market condition: 100 SMA/200 SMA are very near to be broken by the price from below to above for the reversal of the price movement from the primary bearish to the primary bullish market condition. If the price will be bounced from 1.1042 resistance level so we may see the ranging bearish condition up to 1.0516 level as a nearest bearish target in this case.
SUMMARY : ranging
EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals - German ZEW Economic Sentiment and 15 pips price movement
2014-12-15 10:00 GMT | [EUR - German ZEW Economic Sentiment]
[EUR - German ZEW Economic Sentiment] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed German institutional investors and analysts. It's a leading indicator of economic health - investors and analysts are
highly informed by virtue of their job, and changes in their sentiment
can be an early signal of future economic activity.
EURUSD M5: 15 pips price movement by EUR - German ZEW Economic Sentiment news event
EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals - Consumer Price Index (CPI) and 26 pips price movement
2014-12-15 13:30 GMT | [USD - CPI]
[USD - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers. Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation
is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the
central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation
EURUSD M5: 26 pips price movement by USD - Consumer Price Index (CPI) news event
The price (H4) is on bullish market
condition located above 100 period SMA and 200 period SMA with the secondary ranging within the follolwing support/resistance levels:
RSI indicator is estimating the local downtrend as the secondary correction to be started within the primary bullish market condition.
AUD/USD: intra-day bearish reversal (adapted from the article)
Swiss Finance Corporation made the following forecast for this pair:
The price (H4) is on bearish reversal for the 200 period SMA crossing within the following key reversal support/resistance levels:
indicator is estimating the bearish breakdown to be started.
EUR/USD ranges on reversal ahead of FOMC (adapted from the article)
Morgan Stanley is forecasting USD long movement against the major currencies incl TRY, BRL, AUD and CAD for example:
Let's describe the situation with the technical point of view.
H4 price was on the secondary correction within the primary bullish market condition: price was bounced from 1.1059 resistance level yesterday and it was stopped inside Ichimoku cloud near 1.0904 support level and Senkou Span line which is the virtual border between the primary bullish and the
bearish on the chart.
If price will break 1.0904 support level on close H4 bar so we may see the reversal of the intra-day price movement from the primary bullish to the primary bearish market condition with the secondary ranging: the price will be located inside Ichimoku cloud for ranging).If price will break 1.1059 resistance level on close H4 bar so the primary bullish trend will be continuing.If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
SUMMARY : ranging on reversal
USD, EUR/USD, AUD/USD and GBP/USD Into FOMC (adapted from the article)
Credit Suisse and Credit Agricole are forecasting the Fed rates hike for today telling that Fed will maintain a dovish tone during the FOMC Statement:
2014-12-16 19:00 GMT | [USD - Federal Funds Rate]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)
[USD - Federal Funds Rate] = Interest rate at which depository institutions lend balances held at the
Federal Reserve to other depository institutions overnight. Short term interest rates are the paramount factor in currency valuation
- traders look at most other indicators merely to predict how rates
will change in the future.
Credit Suisse, Credit Agricole and some other int'l financial institutions are forecasting the ranging volatile market condition during and after FOMC mettings because of the following:
Thus, we may see the ranging condition in intra-day basis for the major currency pairs.
What does it mean for EUR/USD, AUD/USD and GBP/USD for example?
EUR/USD H4: Ranging. The price is on ranging condition located near and above 100 SMA/200 SMA within the following key reversal support/resistance levels:
According to above mentioned forecast - the price will continuing with the ranging condition within the levels.
AUD/USD H4: Ranging on bearish reversal. The price is on ranging condition located near 200 SMA on the border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend on the chart within the following key reversal
Thus, we can foresee the price to break 200 SMA from above to below for 0.7159 as the next bearish target which means the reversal of intra-day price movement to the primary bearish market condition.
GBP/USD H4: Ranging. The price is located near
and below 100 SMA/200 SMA for the ranging market condition within the following key reversal
The most likely scenario for the intra-day price is to be moved during and immediate after FOMC meetings with the ranging condition within the levels, and in long-term situation - bearish market condition by 1.49/1.48 support area to be broken.
Trading News Events: Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Interest Rate Decision (based on the article)
Based on Fed Funds Futures, market participants are pricing a 76%
probability for a rate-hike a the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC)
December 16 interest rate decision, and the fresh updates coming out of
the central bank may instill a bullish U.S. dollar outlook for 2016
should Chair Janet and Co. outline a more detailed exit-strategy.
Why Is This Event Important:
Even though the FOMC remains on course to shift gears, a split decision
to implement higher borrowing-costs accompanied by a downward revision
in the central bank’s updated forecasts may drag on rate expectations,
and the dollar stands at risk of facing near-term headwinds over the
remainder of the month should the ‘data dependent’ Fed highlight a
wait-and-see approach for the year ahead.
However, subdued wage growth paired with the ongoing weakness in
household consumption may push the FOMC to temper market expectations,
and the greenback may struggle to hold its ground should the committee
outline a more shallow path for interest rates.
How To Trade This Event Risk
Bullish USD Trade: Fed Lifts Benchmark Interest Rate, Warns of Higher Borrowing-Costs in 2016