EURUSD long-term forecasts updated: more ranging than bearish - Goldman Sachs (based on article)
Goldman Sachs updated their long-term forecast for EUR/USD with more
bullish than in previous one: the price will be droped to 1.07 for 3
months instead of 1.02 as the previously forecasted, half a year
forecast is 1.05 instead of 1.000, and one year fiorecast is 1.0000
instead of 0.9500 previous one.
According to Goldman Sachs - the price will reach second pivot support
level at 1.0672 for 3 months only, and the price will be in the bearish
market condition for the ranging within S2 Pivot at 1.0672 and 1.0520
support level. And the bearish trend will be re-started in the second
half of 2016 only: price will reach 1.0000 psy level by the end of 2016
Setups For EUR/USD by Barclays (based on efxnews article)
Barclays Capital made a forecast for EUR/USD for today and tomorrow:
Let's evaluate this forecast with the technical point of view.
M5 timeframe. Ranging bearish. The price is located below 100 period SMA (100 SMA) and 200 period SMA (200 SMA) for the primary bearish market condition with the secondary ranging within the following support/resistance levels:
If the price will break 1.0932 support level on close bar so the bearish trend will be continuing.If the price will break 1.1042 resistance level on close bar so we may see the reversal of the intra-day price movement to the primary bullish market condition.If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.
Trading News Events: U.S. Retail Sales (adapted from the article)
Another 0.2% expansion in U.S. Retail Sales may fuel speculation for a
December Fed rate-hike and spur a near-term pullback in EUR/USD as
central bank officials largely endorse an upbeat outlook for the world’s
Why Is This Event Important:
Signs of stronger consumption may encourage the Federal Open Market
Committee (FOMC) to remove the zero-interest rate policy (ZIRP) at the
next meeting as it remains one of the leading drivers of growth and
inflation but, a weak sales report may drag on rate expectations as
Chair Janet Yellen appears to be in no rush to normalize monetary
However, subdued wages accompanied by the slowdown in private credit may
drag on sales, and a dismal outcome may prompt the FOMC to lower its
interest-rate forecast at the December meeting as it undermines the
central bank’s scope to achieve the 2% inflation target over the policy
How To Trade This Event Risk
Bullish USD Trade: Retail Sales Expands 0.2% or Greater in November
Forex Weekly Outlook December 14-18 (based on the article)
The US dollar was pressured against most currencies in a week that saw very unsettled stock and commodity markets. On the agenda we have German Economic Sentiment, UK employment data, US housing and inflation data, and the highly important FOMC decision which is dubbed as historic. These are the market movers for this week.
US Consumer confidence rebounded, rising to 91.8 in December, the highest level in four months amid positive views on household finances and consumer spending. Buying conditions for household purchases were rated positively by 81% of all consumers. This helped the greenback recover in a week that saw it losing ground. The euro still enjoyed the Draghi disappointment, the Aussie enjoyed good employment data, the NZD a “hawkish cut” and the yen was powered by safe haven flows. The severe sell-off of oil resulted in a crash of oil prices alongside CAD. The bottom of the barrel is still elusive.
Thanking you all for giving valuable information, I did
GBPUSD: Sell, 1.49712 & 1.51257 and I think have to do one more sell at 1.52100
Please guide, am i going on right path
After all I know no body knows about future but we can predict only
It depends on the timeframe you are trading with. For example, if we are talking about D1 and H4 so it may be the following:
1. D1 timeframe: daily breakout with the possible bullish reversal.Chinkou Span line is crossing the price to above (on open bar for now) for good possible breakout. Key reversal resistance level is 1.5340 (Senkou Span line), if the price breaks this line from below to above so the price will be reversed to the bullish market condition.
2. H4 timeframe: price action reversal - the price was already to be reversed to the bullish by breaking 200 period SMA to above on close H4 bar.
3. M5 timeframe: Correction within the primary bullish to the ranging bearish reversal. If you are looking to sell so it may be M5 timeframe only but we need to wait for the market to be open anyway (because support/resistance lines are dynamic ones so they can be moved by the price on the chart for example):
Key support level for M5 is 1.5219 (we see it from the chart) so the pending order (sell stop order) may be placeв somewhere at 1.5210 especially if 100 period SMA value for now is 1.5215. But it will be the ranging condition anyway (the price will be between 100 SMA and 200 SMA) - means: risky anyway.
The key reversal bearish support level for this timeframe is 1.5149 so it the price breaks this level to below so it will be the downtrend just to sure.
With no major domestic data scheduled on this week, CBA's Chief Currency Strategist Richard Grace believes
markets will be paying close attention to movements in the Chinese
renminbi given the PBOC signaled on Friday its intention to change the
way it will manage the value of the CNY moving forward.
PBoC signaled its intention to change the way it will manage the value
of the CNY by potentially loosening the peg to the USD and starting to
track CNY against a trade-weighted basket of currencies," wrote Grace.
From the technical point of view - intra-day price (H4) is on ranging market condition: the price was bounced from 0.7159 support level to be between 100 SMA/200 SMA area breaking 23.6% Fibo level from below to above for 50.0% Fibo level as the next target:
FOMC Preview: taking it easy - we expect the FOMC adopt a dovish tone - Credit Suisse (based on the article)
H4 price is located above 200 period SMA
and 100 period SMA for the primary bullish ranging between 50.0% Fibo
support level at 1.0783 and Fibo resistance level at 1.1042. RSI indicator is estimating the ranging bullish market condition to be continuing.
If the price will break 50.0% Fibo
support level at 1.0783 on close H4 bar so we may see the reversal of the price movement from the primary bullish to the primary bearish market condition with the secondary ranging. If the price will break Fibo resistance level at 1.1042 from below to above so the primary bullish market condition will be continuing. If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
AUD/USD: short-term strategy, long-term strategy and the levels to watch - Swiss Finance Corporation (based on the article)
As we see from the chart above - the price (H4) is ranging between 100 period SMA and 200 period SMA waiting for direction.