Press review - page 537

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for S&P 500 (based on the article)

S&P 500 - "The market moved to a new record close on Friday. How do we trade a market which just broke out to new all-time highs? Chasing isn’t advisable, and especially not when there is resistance just ahead. The bottom-side of the November slope will quickly come into play, and is also in near confluence with a trend-line extending over from the March 1 high across the prior record high set in June. We’re only looking at 7 or so handles from Friday’s close before we are there. If the market can hold above the prior record high and not trade back below Friday’s low then it will be postured for higher prices, but may at first struggle to print new levels with the beforementioned lines standing in the way."

[Sergey Golubev]

BitCoin - daily breakdown with the bearish reversal (based on the article)

Daily price broke Ichimoku cloud together with descending triangle pattern with 2,154 support level to below to be reversed to the primary ebarish market condition with the nearest weekly target at 1,849 Fibo support level.

• "Highlighting the uptick in the space, over $1.4 billion (bn) has been invested in blockchain technology in just three short years according to a report from the World Economic Forum. And, quite incredibly it has been projected that by 2027 around 10% of global gross domestic product (GDP) will be stored on blockchain platforms."
• "The cryptocurrency market still proves to be quite volatile which definitely creates opportunity for money to be made,” adds McCaffrey. “But trading is the hard way to make money in every market. Getting in the market ahead of the crowd, and getting out when the IPO or the ICO makes its market debut is the easy way."

[Sergey Golubev]

USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: China GDP and range price movement 

2017-07-17 03:00 GMT | [CNY- GDP]

• past data is 6.9%
• forecast data is 6.8%
• actual data is 6.9% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNY- GDP] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. 

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From rttnews article :

• "Gross domestic product grew 6.9 percent year-on-year, the same pace of expansion as seen in the first quarter, the National Bureau of Statistics said Monday. The annual growth was forecast to slow to 6.8 percent."
• "On a sequential basis, economic growth improved to 1.7 percent from 1.3 percent."

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USD/CNH M5: range price movement by China Gross Domestic Product news event 

[Sergey Golubev]

NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: New Zealand CPI and range price movement 

2017-07-17 23:45 GMT | [NZD - CPI]

• past data is 1.0%
• forecast data is 0.2%
• actual data is 0.0% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for NZD in our case)

[NZD - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers. 

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From official report :

• "The consumers price index (CPI) was flat overall at 0.0 percent (down 0.1 percent with seasonal adjustment)."
• "Food prices rose 0.7 percent, influenced by higher prices for vegetables (up 19 percent)."

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NZD/USD M5: range price movement by NZ Consumer Price Index news event 

[Sergey Golubev]

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes and range price movement 

2017-07-18 02:30 GMT | [AUD - Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes]

• past data is n/a
• forecast data is n/a
• actual data is n/a according to the latest press release

[AUD - Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes] = It's a detailed record of the RBA Reserve Bank Board's most recent meeting, providing in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced their decision on where to set interest rates. 

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From abc article :

• "The Reserve Bank is continuing its campaign to soften up highly leveraged borrowers for eventual interest rate rises after a long period at record low levels. The central bank is now busy estimating what a "neutral" interest rate might look like as the Australian economy continues to show patchy signs of recovery."
• "A number of central banks had become more positive about domestic economic conditions, and financial market pricing suggested that there had been upward revisions to the expected path of future monetary policy."

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AUD/USD M5: range price movement by RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes news event 

[Sergey Golubev]

Dow Jones Industrial Average - daily bullish; 1,681 is the key (based on the article)

Price on the daily chart is located above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart: the price is testing 21,681 resistance level to above for the bullish trend to be continuing.
By the way, if the price breaks 21,279 support to below on daily close bar so the secondary correction will be started on the ranging way with the good possibility to the reversal to the primary bearish market condition. 

• "Going back 100 years before the semiconductor was invented, Dow Theory (analysis of the relationship between the Dow Jones Industrial average and the Dow Jones Transporation Average) ruled the stock market. Today, the stock market is moving higher on the back of a Dow Theory buy signal as the Materials Sector SPDR ETF and iShares Transportation Average ETF set new all-time intraday highs on Friday."
• "The Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF still has a negative but oversold weekly chart, while the Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF shows a potential double-top."

[Sergey Golubev]

Dollar Index - long term breakdown to correction (based on the article)

The price on monthly chart is located above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart. The price is on secondary correction within the primary bullish trend by breaking monthly support level at 95.22 to below together with descending triangle pattern and with the bearish reversal support level at 91.87 as the next monthly target.

Chinkou Span line is crossing historical price to below for the breakdown to be continuing.

• "From July 2014 to early 2017, the DXY rose ~30% in anticipation of the great divide in monetary policy. However, we now see that economic strength and data surprises are not ‘Made in the USA,' but rather in other economies like the Eurozone, Canada, and China. The lack of US growth could mean that the Fed will no longer be the leading central bank in terms of normalization, but possible honing a mea culpa of normalizing too much too soon."
• "When looking at the chart, you can see that the Dollar is traveling comfortable in a bearish channel and is working to test an internal Trendline drawn from the 2012 peak and the 2016 low. A break below the internal Trendline on a weekly basis would open up the increasing probability of a move to the 38.2% retracement (labeled long-term support) that aligns with the 2016 low at 92.13. Only a daily close above 95.50 would neutralize the current bearish positioning. However, as the blows to hope keep coming for US inflation (despite base metals rallying), I won’t hold my breath in anticipation that the weak USD finds life."

[Sergey Golubev]

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, GBP/USD and Dollar Index: Residential Building Permits

2017-07-19 13:30 GMT | [USD - Building Permits]

• past data is 1.17M
• forecast data is 1.20M
• actual data is 1.25M according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Building Permits] = Annualized number of new residential building permits issued during the previous month.

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From economiccalendar article :

• "US building permits increased 7.4% for June to an annualised rate of 1.254mn from 1.17mn in May. This was above consensus forecasts of a figure close to 1.20mn to give an annual increase of 5.1%."
• "Housing starts rose 8.3% on the month to an annual rate of 1.215mn from 1.12mn in May. This was also above market expectations of 1.16mn with an annual gain of 2.1%."

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Dollar Index M5: range price movement by Residential Building Permits news events

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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by Residential Building Permits news events

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GBP/USD M5: range price movement by Residential Building Permits news events

[Sergey Golubev]

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australian Employment Change and range price movement 

2017-07-20 02:30 GMT | [AUD - Employment Change]

• past data is 38.0K
• forecast data is 14.4K
• actual data is 14.0K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month. 

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From official report :

• "Employment increased 14,000 to 12,166,900. Full-time employment increased 62,000 to 8,356,000 and part-time employment decreased 48,000 to 3,810,800."
• "Unemployment rate remained steady at 5.6%, following a revised May 2017 estimate."

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AUD/USD M5: range price movement by Australian Employment Change news event 

[Sergey Golubev]

Apple - daily breakout with the bullish reversal (based on the article)

Daily share price is on breakout by Ichimoku cloud to be crossing to be reversed to the primary bullish market condition. The price is on testing resistance level at 150.86 together with ascending triangle pattern to above for the bullish breakout to be continuing.

• "We delivered better than expected results in our semiconductor business this quarter, which drove EPS above the midpoint of our expectations versus our April updated guidance,” said Steve Mollenkopf, CEO of Qualcomm Incorporated. “Our products and technologies continue to enable the global smartphone industry, and we are expanding into many exciting new product categories, including automotive, mobile computing, networking and IoT. We believe that we hold the high ground with regard to the dispute with Apple, and we have initiated new actions to protect the well-established value of our technologies."
• "Still Wall Street seems to be concerned about the uncertainty overhanging on the company’s future, sending its shares lower in after-market hours."