Press review - page 458

[Sergey Golubev]

Trading News Events: Canada Retail Sales (adapted from dailyfx)

• "A 0.6% rebound in Canada Retail Sales may spark a bullish reaction in the loonie and lead to a near-term pullback in USD/CAD should the data print highlight an improved outlook for growth and inflation."
• "Even though the Bank of Canada (BoC) keeps the door open to further embark on its easing-cycle, a marked pickup in household spending may encourage Governor Stephen Poloz and Co. to retain the current policy at the last 2016-meeting on December 7 as ‘Canada’s economy is still expected to grow at a rate above potential starting in the second half of 2016, supported by accommodative monetary and financial conditions and federal fiscal measures.’ Nevertheless, another disappointing sales report may push the BoC to ‘actively’ discuss additional measures in 2017 as the region is expected to return to full-capacity ‘materially later than the Bank had anticipated in July.’"

Bullish CAD Trade: Retail Spending Rebounds 0.6% or Greater

• "Need to see red, five-minute candle following the release to consider a short trade on USD/CAD."
• "If market reaction favors a long loonie trade, short USD/CAD with two separate position."
• "Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward."
• "Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit."

Bearish CAD Trade: Canada Household Spending Disappoints

• "Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long USD/CAD trade."
• "Implement same setup as the bullish Canadian dollar trade, just in reverse." 

Daily price is on bullish are of the chart located to be above Ichimoku cloud. The price is on secondary correction to be started on open daily bar by 1.3386 support level to be broken for the correction to be continuing.

• If the price will break 1.3588 resistance level on close daily bar so the primary bullish trend will be resumed.
  
• If price will break 1.3386 support on close daily bar so the local downtrend as the secondary correction within the primary bullish trend will be started.
  
• If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

------

USD/CAD M5: range price movement by Canada Retail Sales news event

[Sergey Golubev]

Technical Targets for EUR/USD by United Overseas Bank (based on the article)

H4 price is located below 100 SMA/200 SMA on the bearish area of the chart. The price is on ranging within narrow support/resistance levels:

• 1.0649 resistance level located in the beginning of the secondary bear market rally to be started, and
• 1.0568 support level located far below 100 SMA/200 SMA in the bearish trend to be resumed.

Daily price. United Overseas Bank is expecting for this pair to be bearish trend to be continuing:

"The lack of follow through despite the overall bearish indications coupled with the rather strong rebound yesterday suggests that the odds for further EUR weakness have diminished. A prolonged consolidation above 1.0540 would lead to a rapid loss in downward momentum and increase the risk of a short-term low."

• If daily price breaks 1.0953 resistance level on close bar so the bullish reversal will be started.
  
• If daily price breaks 1.0568 support level on close bar so the primary bearish trend will be resumed.
• If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.

[Sergey Golubev]

S&P 500: bouncing from new high (based on the article)

Daily price is located above 100-day SMA/200-day SMA reversal levels on the bullish area of the chart with 2202 resistance level to be broken for the bullish trend to be continuing.

 

• "It’s a holiday week in the U.S., with markets closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving. On Wednesday, many market participants will look to leave their desks early and Friday is set up for a ‘nothing-type’ day in terms of volatility and volume. The combination of persistent upward pressure, new highs, and a holiday trading environment make fighting the trend a difficult proposition. No need here to be a hero." 
• "We will first look to support in the 2188/2194 area (2194 = old highs), and below there, should we see the first levels fail to hold, the market is likely to find dip buyers in the 2170/82 vicinity. Looking to potential ‘hidden’ resistance at new highs, there lies a trend-line running over peaks during H1, 2015 and the August highs. Right around the 2207 mark at this time." 

Most likely scenario is the following: the price will be bounced from 2200/2210 resistance levels to below for the ranging trend to be started within the narrow s/r levels. 

[Sergey Golubev]

Copper Prices: Daily and Intra-Day Technicals (based on the article) 

Daily Technicals

• "Copper prices are beginning to rebound, after dropping off from 2016 highs of $2.7333 per pound. Currently the metal is experiencing a 2 day rally which has pushed Copper as high as $2.5709, and back over daily resistance of $2.4930. While this week’s trading is expected to be quite, traders should continue to monitor points of support and resistance to determine if Coppers trend is again picking up momentum."
• "In the event that Copper prices continue to rally, traders should next look for the metal to test $2.5929. This area is considered a point of technical resistance, and is represented in the graph as the November 14th high. A rally through this point, would then open Copper up to testing psychological points of resistance such as $2.6000 and $2.6500 before challenging standing yearly highs." 

Intra-Day Technicals

(the chart was created using Metatrader 5)

The price is on ranging within the narrow support/resistance levels waiting for the direction for the bearish trend to be continuing or for the secondary rally to be started.

[Achmad Armawijaya]

EUR/USD market being sluggish....



what is being awaited?

[Sergey Golubev]

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australian Construction Work Done and pips range price movement

2016-11-23 00:30 GMT | [AUD - Construction Work Done]

• past data is -3.1%
• forecast data is -1.5%
• actual data is -4.9% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Construction Work Done] = Change in the total inflation-adjusted value of construction projects completed.

==========

From official report:

• "The trend estimate for total construction work done fell 3.1% in the September quarter 2016."
• "The seasonally adjusted estimate for total construction work done fell 4.9% to $46,147.8m in the September quarter."
• "The trend estimate for total building work done fell 0.7% in the September quarter."
• "The trend estimate for non-residential building work done fell 3.1% and residential building work rose 0.6%."
• "The seasonally adjusted estimate of total building work done fell 5.7% to $25,886.6m in the September quarter."

==========

AUD/USD M5: pips range price movement by Australian Construction Work Done news event

 

[Sergey Golubev]

Quick Technical Overview - Dollar Index: daily bullish with 101.48 resistance (adapted from the article)

Dollar Index daily chart: bullish. The price is located far above 100 SMA/200 SMA in the bullish area of the chart. The price is testing 101.48 resistance level for the bullish trend to be continuing, otherwise - ranging bullish.

• "Recent comments noted that “Monday’s (11/14) close settled above channel resistance, indicating potential for upside acceleration (could be a ‘blow-off’). The importance of the break through resistance is accentuated by the fact that channel resistance (former now) was support earlier this week (on 11/17 dip).” DXY hasn’t disappointed, having traded through the 2015 highs. Former highs at 99.83 and 101.51, along with former channel resistance, should be watched for support."

Resistance	Support
101.48	98.69
N/A	95.86

[Sergey Golubev]

Trading News Events: U.S. Durable Goods Orders (adapted from dailyfx)

• "A 1.7% rebound in U.S. Durable Goods Orders may heighten the appeal of the greenback and spark a near-term decline in EUR/USD as it puts increased pressure on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to raise the benchmark interest rate at the last 2016-meeting on December 14."
• "Fed Funds Futures are pricing a greater than 90% probability for a December rate-hike as ‘the Committee judges that the case for an increase in the federal funds rate has continued to strengthen,’ and Chair Janet Yellen and Co. may continue to normalize monetary policy in the year ahead should the data print reinforce central bank expectations for a ‘moderate’ recovery. However, another unexpected decline in demand for large-ticket items may drag on interest-rate expectations as private-sector consumption remains one of the leading drivers of growth and inflation."

Bullish USD Trade: Demand for Large-Ticket Items Rebound 1.7% or Greater

• "Need red, five-minute candle following the report to consider a short EUR/USD trade."
• "If market reaction favors a bullish dollar trade, short EUR/USD with two separate position."
• "Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from cost; at least 1:1 risk-to-reward."
• "Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is met, set reasonable limit."

Bearish USD Trade: U.S. Durable Goods Orders Report Disappoints

• "Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long EUR/USD trade."
• "Implement same strategy as the bullish dollar trade, just in the opposite direction." 

Daily price is on located below Ichimoku cloud in the primary bearish area of the chart. The price is trying to test 1.0568 support level to below for the bearish trend to be continuing.

• If the price will break 1.0759 resistance level on close daily bar so the local uptrend as the bear market rally will be started.
  
• If price will break 1.0568 support on close daily bar so the primary bearish trend will be resumed.
  
• If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

------

[Sergey Golubev]

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, GOLD (XAU/USD) and Dax Index: U.S. Durable Goods Orders

2016-11-23 13:30 GMT | [USD - Durable Goods Orders]

• past data is -0.3%
• forecast data is 1.2%
• actual data is 4.8% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Durable Goods Orders] = Change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for durable goods.

==========

From Market Watch article: Durable-goods orders see jet-fueled 4.8% gain in October

• "Orders for long-lasting goods made in the U.S. soared 4.8% in October largely because of stronger demand for commercial aircraft, but business investment is still not showing much spark."
• "Although these orders have picked up slightly in the fall, they are 4% lower compared to a year ago. Businesses have skimped on investment for years, undermining the ability of the U.S. economy to break out of a straitjacket that has limited it to 2% annual growth or less." 

==========

EUR/USD M5: 49 pips range price movement by Durable Goods Orders news events

==========

GOLD (XAU/USD) M5: bearish price movement by Durable Goods Orders news events

==========

Dax Index M5: range price movement by Durable Goods Orders news events

 

[Sergey Golubev]

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: FOMC Meeting Minutes and 19 pips range price movement

2016-11-23 19:00 GMT | [EUR - FOMC Meeting Minutes]

• past data is n/a
• forecast data is n/a
• actual data is n/a according to the latest press release

[EUR - FOMC Meeting Minutes] = It's a detailed record of the FOMC's most recent meeting, providing in-depth insights into the economic and financial conditions that influenced their vote on where to set interest rates.

==========

From rttnews article: The Fed is widely expected to raise rates at the next FOMC meeting, which is scheduled for December 13th and 14th.

• "Most Federal Reserve officials expect it to become appropriate to raise interest rates relatively soon, according to the minutes of the November meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee."
• "The minutes noted that the expectation for a near-term rate hike is contingent on incoming data providing some further evidence of continued progress toward the Fed's objectives." 

==========

EUR/USD M5: 19 pips range price movement by FOMC Meeting Minutes news event