GBP/USD - "Traders should be particularly mindful of
potential volatility surrounding the US Presidential Election on
November 8. It is difficult to predict how markets will react, and
extremely one-sided GBP positioning warns of volatility on any
AUD/USD - "The deadlock seems unlikely to be broken
until US voters have said their peace. This may not necessarily offer
immediate direction however as the greenback recovers alongside risk
appetite, inverting current dynamics but yielding the same conflicted
outcome. Complicating things further, the polls are close enough that an
inconclusive election result echoing the Bush/Gore fiasco in 2000 is
not an entirely remote possibility. On balance, all this makes for a
clouded landscape and traders would be wise to tread cautiously."
NZD/USD - "Key speeches by Chicago Fed President Charles Evans, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, San Francisco Fed President John Williams, St Louis Fed President James Bullard and Fed Vice-Chair Stanley Fischer
may impact the FX market and boost the appeal of the greenback as
central bank officials appear to be making a more collective approach to
prepare U.S. households and businesses for a December rate-hike. It
seems as though the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)
will stay on course to further normalize monetary policy in 2017 as
‘the Committee judges that the case for an increase in the federal funds
rate has continued to strengthen,’ but the 8 to 2 split suggests the
permanent voting-members are in no rush to implement higher
borrowing-costs as ‘market-based measures of inflation compensation have
moved up but remain low; most survey-based measures of longer-term
inflation expectations are little changed, on balance, in recent
months.’ As a result, Chair Janet Yellen
and Co. may largely advocate a wait-and-see approach going into 2017,
and the permanent-voting members may continue to favor a ‘gradual’ path
in normalizing monetary policy as the central bank remains
USD/CNH - "Event risks from home are expected to add volatility to Yuan rates
as well. China’ foreign reverses, exports and CPI reads for October are
the top indicators to keep an eye on. In September, China’s foreign reserves dropped -$18 billion to $3.166 trillion, the lowest level since May 2011.
If the holdings continue to fall, China’s Central Bank is less likely
to support the Yuan when it devalues against the Dollar as this will
further burn foreign reserves. Also, China’s overseas shipments in
Dollar terms unexpectedly shrank -10% in September. A weaker Yuan may
have helped to ease the pressure on exporters: The Yuan lost -1.57%
onshore and -1.58% offshore in October. In terms of the headline
inflation, multiple Chinese financial institutions forecast that the CPI
will rise back to above 2% in October. A higher CPI may reduce the odds of the PBOC introducing further easing measures, and thus, may support Yuan rates."
GOLD (XAU/USD) - "All eyes are on the U.S. Presidential
election on Tuesday as markets contemplate the possible impact of a
Trump victory. A lookback at previous elections suggests that the
broader implications for trend are rather limited, but given the
historic nature of this year’s election cycle, the event could have a
profound impact on near-term price action. Over the past three cycles,
gold prices have closed higher on the week with Election Day typically
charging the bulk of the volatility. With that said, the focus remains
on the technical picture heading into Tuesday with prices holding just
below near-term resistance into the close of the week."
USD/JPY: Scenarios & Tactical Strategies For Trading The US Elections - Deutsche Bank (based on the article)
Scenarios 1 and 2 - "We would recommend selling if USD/JPY rose to around 105 or higher."
USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: China Trade Balance and 29 pips range price movement
2016-11-08 02:33 GMT | [CNY - Trade Balance]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)
[CNY - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the previous month.
From ForexLive article: China October trade balance: CNY +325.25bn (expected CNY366.61bn, prior CNY278.35bn)
Exports (CNY) y/y: -3.2% MISS
China trade balance USD +49.06bn. Surplus smaller than expected but up from the prior month.
Exports (USD) y/y: -7.3% MISS
USD/CNH M5: 29 pips range price movement by China Trade Balance news event
GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.K. Factory Production and 12 pips range price movement
2016-11-08 09:30 GMT | [GBP - Manufacturing Production]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)
[GBP - Manufacturing Production] = Change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers.
From official report:
GBP/USD M5: 12 pips range price movement by U.K. Factory Production news event
USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: China Producer Price Index and 299 pips range price movement
2016-11-09 01:30 GMT | [CNY - PPI]
[CNY - PPI] = Change in the price of goods purchased and sold by producer.
From aastocks article: China Oct PPI Up 1.2% YoY, vs Estimates of Up 0.9%
USD/CNH M5: 299 pips range price movement by China Producer Price Index news event
German DAX - from bear market rally to the bullish reversal irrespective off the analytics forecasts (adapted from the article)
Some analytics are forecasting for Dax Index to be in bearish market condition with 10,000 strong support level as a nearest bearish target for the price to be bounced to above:
"DAX is turning strongly to the downside from a new high, so we believe that index is trapped in a new corrective pattern; a very complex one that can either be an Elliott Wave flat or an Elliott Wave triangle. As things stands at the moment, we favor the flat that is pointing down for wave five of C which could then form a bottom at 10000-10100 area."
But, anyway, the intra-day H4 price was bounced from 10,195 support level to above for the breakout as a bear market rally. For now, the price is testing 10,583 resistance level to above for the bullish reversal to be started.
Daily price broke 100-day SMA/200-day SMA reversal area to above to be reversed to the primary bullish market condition. The price is breaking 50.0% Fibo level at 10,509 to above for the primary bullish trend to be continuing.