Press review - page 465

[Sergey Golubev]

Crude Oil Price Forecast: ranging within 57/53 levels for direction (based on the article)

The daily price is on bullish market condition with the ranging within 57.56 resistance level for the bullish trend to be resumed and 53.11 support level for the daily correction ot be started.

"Looking at the OPEC cut from another angle, we may have been working with a WTI average H2 price in the upper half of $40/bbl while the world’s largest producers were pressing capacity limits. Naturally, the last two and a half years with a ~$84/bbl price range that included a ~78% drop from July 2014-February 2016 showed us that there is room for volatility. However, it’s fair to think that an average price in the upper half of $40/bbl may be long-term support, and if the chart’s hold up, we could be working on further upside from these levels in 2017."

"Should a reversal develop in the price of Crude Oil, we’d be on the watch for the price to break down through the rising support that lies between $47/45. Only a break below this zone would take us from Bullish to Neutral. Until then, we’ll favor eventual upside heading into 2017."

[Sergey Golubev]

Quick technical Overview - Hang Seng Index: correction with the possible bearish ranging reversal (based on the article)

Weekly price is on the secondary correction within the primary bullish market condition: the price is testing 21,785 support level to below together with Senkou Span line to be reversed to the ranging bearish contion.

• "The Hang Seng Index tumbled over 1,200 points, or 5% over the last two weeks. The selling was accompanied by emerging market outflow as the US dollar surged to a decade’s high. The fast depreciating of RMB also urged outflow from the China market, further weighing on Hong Kong equities."
• Chinkou Span line is located above the price indicating the possible bearish breakdown in the near future. And Absolute Strength indicator is estimating the future possible trend as the primary bearish.

If price breaks 24,376 resistance level so the primary bullish trend will be resumed.
If the weekly price breaks 21,785 support level so bearish reversal will be started on the secondary ranging way: the price will be located inside Ichimoku cloud.
If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.

[Sergey Golubev]

DAX Index: weekly bullish breakout (adapted from the article)

W1 price is located above Ichimoku cloud in the primary bullish area of the chart. Price broke key resistance levels to above for the good breakout to be started last week with 11,449 resistance level to be testing for the bullish breakout to be continuing.

• "The headline German IFO business confidence index was stronger than expected at 111.0 for December from 110.4 the previous month and the strongest reading since February 2014, which boosted confidence in the economic outlook with further gains in current conditions, although the expectations component was little changed. In this context, dollar strength will provide a further boost to the Eurozone economy."
• "Wall Street indices edged higher, which helped provide a lift to the DAX index in late trading, especially with a further move higher in German bund prices."

• If the price breaks 11,449 resistance level on close weekly bar to above so the bullish breakout will be continuing.
  
• If not so the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels.
  

[Sergey Golubev]

NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: NZ Overseas Merchandise Trade and 21 pips range price movement

2016-12-20 21:45 GMT | [NZD - Trade Balance]

• past data is -815M
• forecast data is -500M
• actual data is -705M according to the latest press release

[NZD - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the reported month.

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From official report:

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NZD/USD M5: 21 pips range price movement by NZ Overseas Merchandise Trade news event

 

[Sergey Golubev]

Best indicators for the modern trader (based on Futures Magazine article)

1.  Moving Averages

"That is because price trends are characterized by a natural progression that is indeed timeless. Market price activity tends to proceed through phases of directional swings followed by taking a rest. The degree of that directional volatility and length of the rest (‘consolidation’) periods can vary widely. However, within the overall trend psychology, the attempted reversal patterns which inevitably form during rest phases are a key to the health of any trend." 

2. Balance of Power (BOP)

"Since most of what we do is mechanical trading, and different algos perform well under different market conditions, we have found we can really increase our performance by actively heeding what the market is trying to show. BOP helps tease those messages out." 

3. Price Action with  a powerful risk management tool

"Before an indicator is used it is essential to understand the limitations of the indicator. In other words, when does it perform well and when does it not perform well. Often times an indicator is used across all markets with the expectation that it will perform equally well in all market environments around the clock."

4. Oil price

"Oil is a fickle beast. Our indicators used to be all about America’s thirst for oil and geopolitics disrupting supply, we’re channeling the band Kansas and have gone past the point of no return. Now when we’re trading WTI it’s all about U.S. production and the pace of economic growth. We used to talk about how a $10 increase in the price of crude oil would decrease GDP by 0.5%" 

5. Stock Indices 

6. 100-day Moving Average 

'"Take the GBP/USD as an example: the pair’s uptrend has stretched to 400 pips from its 100-day MA on four separate occasions this year, and each time (including just two weeks ago) rates have pulled back by 300-400 pips before finding support, presenting a better buying opportunity for trend-following traders." 

[Sergey Golubev]

Oil rises as forecasters see big draw in U.S. stocks (based on the article)

Daily price is located above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart. The price is on ranging within the following support/resistance levels:

• 57.56 resistance level located far above Ichimoku cloud in the beginning of the bullish trend to be resumed, and
• 53.60 support level located in the beginning of the secondary correction to be started.
  

"There are expectations that we'll see supplies start to tighten by the end of the year," said analyst Phil Flynn of Price Futures Group in Chicago. "We'll get more heating oil demand this weekend and could see a drop in production next week and even last week because of the cold temperatures."

"The market pulled back in the early afternoon after Libya's National Oil Corp said pipelines from its western fields had been reopened. It expects to add 270,000 barrels a day in state production in the next three months. Protesters agreed last week to end a longstanding blockade."

Trend Strength indicator is estimating the bullish trend to be continuing, and Absolute Strength indicator is evaluating the trend as the ranging in the near future.

[Sergey Golubev]

U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news event: intra-day ranging bearish reversal, daily bullish ranging for direction

2016-12-21 15:30 GMT | [USD - Crude Oil Inventories]

• past data is -2.6M
• forecast data is -2.4M
• actual data is 2.3M according to the latest press release

[USD - Crude Oil Inventories] = Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week.

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"U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 0.9 million barrels from the previous week."

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Crude Oil M5: ranging bearish reversal. The price is located below 200 SMA in the bearish area of the chart for the ranging within the narrow support/resistance levels.

If the price breaks 55.81 resistance level so the secondary rally will be started with 56.11 target to the bullish reversal.
If the price breaks 55.49 support so the primary bearish trend will be resumed.
If not so the price will be on bearish ranging within the levels.

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Crude Oil Daily: ranging bullish. The price is located above 100 SMA/200 SMA in the bullish area of the chart for the ranging within 57.23 resistance and 53.12 support waiting for the bullish trend to be resumed or for the secondary correction to be started.

If daily price breaks 57.23 resistance on close daily bar so the primary bullish trend will be resumed.
If the price breaks 53.12 support level to below on close daily bar so the secondary correction within the primary bullish trend will be started.
If not so the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels.

[Sergey Golubev]

NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: New Zealand Gross Domestic Product and 25 pips range price movement

2016-12-21 21:45 GMT | [NZD - GDP]

• past data is 0.7%
• forecast data is 0.8%
• actual data is 1.1% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for NZD in our case)

[NZD - GDP] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

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From official report:

"Economic activity, as measured by gross domestic product (GDP), grew 1.1 percent in the September 2016 quarter." 

 

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NZD/USD M5: 25 pips range price movement by New Zealand Gross Domestic Product news event

 

[Sergey Golubev]

Energy's Biggest Winners & Losers In 2016 (based on the article)

2016 Winners

1. American Energy Producers

• "American oil and gas producers came out on top this year because Donald Trump, an unabashed supporter of domestic energy production (fossil fuels and renewables) won the election."

2. China

• "China won in 2016 by taking advantage of supremely low oil prices to fill its strategic oil reserve."

3. Russia and Saudi Arabia

• "Russia and Saudi Arabia can both be considered winners because they were able to come to an agreement to limit oil production after a year of difficult negotiations."

2016 Losers

1. Venezuela, Europe and Iraq

• "Venezuela really lost in 2016 because low oil prices hit the country so hard that even OPEC’s recent agreement to limit production will not help their damaged economy – now hit by hyperinflation."
• "Europe’s energy situation did not improve in 2016, and the continent is still beholden to Russian natural gas and energy."
• "The Iraqi government is ending 2016 in a difficult position, because it was not able to convince OPEC to grant it an exemption from the 2017 oil production cuts."

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The daily price is trending to be above 200-day SMA in the bullish area of the chart for the ranging within 57.23 resistance level for the bullish trend to be resumed and 53.12 support level for the secondary correction to be started. By the way, the developing retracement bearish pattern is forming by the price for the possible correction to be started in the near future, and descending triangle pattern was formed for the correctional trend for the future as well.

Most likely scenario for the daily price is the following: 53.71 support level is going to be broken to below with 53.12 target to re-enter.

[Sergey Golubev]

USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Canada Consumer Price Index and 46 pips range price movement

2016-12-22 13:30 GMT | [CAD - CPI]

• past data is 1.5%
• forecast data is 1.4%
• actual data is 1.2% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CAD in our case)

[CAD - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

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From official report:

"The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.2% on a year-over-year basis in November, following a 1.5% gain in October." 

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USD/CAD M5: 46 pips range price movement by Canada Consumer Price Index news event