Press review - page 415

[Sergey Golubev]

NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: RBNZ Deputy Governor Spencer Speaks and 42 pips price movement

2016-07-07 05:30 GMT | [NZD - RBNZ Deputy Governor Spencer Speaks]

• past data is n/a
  
• forecast data is n/a
  
• actual data is n/a according to the latest press release

[NZD - RBNZ Deputy Governor Spencer Speaks] = RBNZ Deputy Governor Spencer Speaks on Housing risks require a broad policy response.

==========

• "In conclusion, the Reserve Bank is concerned about the risks to financial and economic stability inherent in the growing housing market imbalances. Auckland pressures are re-emerging following an easing in the market from late 2015, and house price inflation has accelerated in a number of regions."
• "The causes of the imbalances are complex with a number of important drivers on both the demand and supply side. Addressing these imbalances will require policy action by a variety of agencies on a number of fronts. The underlying housing shortage needs to be urgently addressed, particularly in Auckland where population growth continues to outstrip housing construction. A step up in supply is required and finalisation of the Auckland Unitary Plan will be a key opportunity to facilitate such a step."
• "On the demand side, the key drivers are population growth and easy credit. The low cost of credit is making higher debt levels affordable, particularly for investors who can deduct interest costs from taxable income. Residential investors are accounting for an increasing share of house sales and new mortgage credit."
• "The Bank’s interest rate policy must have regard to financial stability concerns, but the global environment is likely to keep interest rates low for some time yet. Macro-prudential policy can assist in containing the growing risk to financial stability as the current housing market reaches new extremes. In light of the growing risk, the Reserve Bank is closely considering measures that could be progressed in the coming months."

==========

NZD/USD M5: 42 pips price movement by RBNZ Deputy Governor Spencer Speaks news event :

[Sergey Golubev]

DAX Index Technical Analysis: bearish ranging within key narrow levels (adapted from the article)

Daily price is located below Ichimoku cloud on the bearish area of the chart for the ranging within 9799.5 resistance level and 9152.1 support level:

• "While the trend structure in recent months isn’t very clean, there is a series of lower highs and lower lows continuing to develop. With a little more weakness that price sequence could further mature itself in the not-too-distance future. As long as the DAX remains below the recent swing high at 9812 (another lower high), the next lower low would arrive on a drop below the 6/24 low at 9161."
• "For now, we will continue to view the DAX through a bearish lens given its poor technical posturing and relative weakness. If a lower low from here can develop, there isn’t much preventing it from picking up momentum towards the February low at 8695. This would certainly be consistent with the downward trend in place since the record highs set in April 2015. On the flip side, if the DAX turns higher from here, indicating a successful retest of the recent lows, and can hurdle the recent swing high then we would need to consider bullish alternatives."

Chinkou Span line is below the price indicating the ranging condition by direction.

If D1 price will break 9152.1 support level on close bar so the bearish trend will be continuing.
If D1 price will break 9799.5 resistance level on close bar from below to above so the local uptrend as the bear market rally will be started.
If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.

Resistance	Support
9799.5	9290.6
10372.5	9152.1

[Sergey Golubev]

Trading platform market share war hots up as MetaTrader 5 goes viral in Asia

Indeed, in Western markets, exchange traded derivatives are often reserved for the highly capitalized global electronic market places of Chicago, however in regions with emerging exchanges, MetaTrader 5 appears to be in favor at the moment.

[Sergey Golubev]

Trading News Events: U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls by Barclays, TD, Goldman (adapted from the article)

Barclays: "For the June US employment report, we expect nonfarm payrolls to rise by 175k, private payrolls to increase by 170k, and government payrolls to rise by 5k. A number in line with our expectation would represent a modest rebound in hiring relative to the May employment report after adjusting for the effects of the Verizon strike. Telecommunications employment fell 37k in May, about in line with the estimate of the strike-related effects as estimated by the BLS, and we look for this employment to return in June given the conclusion of the strike prior to the survey week. Elsewhere in the report, we expect the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 4.7%. Finally, we expect average hourly earnings to rise 0.2% m/m (2.7% y/y) and average weekly hours to hold steady at 34.4."

TD: "We expect the sharp downdraft in employment to partially reverse in June, with a forecasted increase of 175k jobs. This print will be supported by the return of 34k Verizon workers who were on strike in May. In addition to the rebound in the telecom sector, a bounce back in the wholesale, manufacturing and construction sectors should also bolster the headline print. The unemployment rate is forecast to increase to 4.8% from the cycle-low of 4.7% on account of an expected rebound in the labor force (following the outsized 820K decline over the prior two months), which should more than offset the gains in household employment. On the wage growth front, average hourly earnings are expected to rise modestly, posting a 0.2% m/m gain, resulting in the pace of wage growth accelerating from 2.5% to 2.7% y/y due in large part to favorable base effects."

Goldman: "We forecast that nonfarm payroll growth rebounded to +210k in June from just +38k in May. In part the pickup reflects the conclusion of a strike at Verizon Communications—this alone accounts for 70k of the month-over-month swing. However, we also see scope for improvement beyond Verizon, as other labor market data have generally looked encouraging. We expect a small increase in the unemployment rate to 4.8% after its three month decline in May. Data from the household survey have been volatile in recent months, but the broad trends—participation stabilizing and job growth remaining strong enough to reduce slack over time—still look intact. We see a low month-over-month gain in average hourly earnings due to calendar quirks, but the year-over-year rate should edge higher."
-----

EUR/USD Quick Technical Overview: intra-day bearish trend to be resumed. H1 price was bounced from 200 SMA to below for the bearish market condition to be resumed in the near future: the price is testing 1.1071 support level to below for the bearish trend to be continuing with 1.1052 bearish breakdown target.

If the price breaks 1.1106 resistance level on close H1 bar so the reversal of the price movement to the bullish market condition will be started.
If the price breaks 1.1052 support level to below so the bearish trend will be continuing with the good breakdown possibilities.
If not so the price will be on ranging condition for direction.

[Sergey Golubev]

Technical Targets for GBP/USD by United Overseas Bank (based on the article)

H4 price is located below Ichimoku cloud for the bearish ranging within narrow support/resistance levels:

• 1.3119 resistance level located on the border between the ranging bearish and the bear market rally, and
• 1.2795 support level located far below Ichimoku cloud in the bearish area of the chart.

Absolute Strength indicator together with Chinkou Span line are estimating the ranging condition to be continuing in the near future, and Trend Strength indicator is showing the possible rally to be started within the bearish trend for example.

Daily price. United Overseas Bank is considering for GBP/USD to be on the bearish market condition with 1.2700 as a possible bearish target with 1.3150 stop loss for example:

"Those who are shorts should continue to look to take profit on any dip to 1.2700 (1.2740 is already a strong short-term support). Stop-loss on shorts should remain unchanged at 1.3150 for now."

• If daily price breaks 1.3532 resistance level on close bar so the local uptrend as a bear market rally will be started.
  
• If daily price breaks 1.2795 support level on close bar so the primary bearish trend will be continuing.
• If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

[Sergey Golubev]

Technical Targets for AUD/USD by United Overseas Bank (based on the article)

H4 price is on ranging to be above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart. The price is located within the following key support/resistance levels:

• 0.7544 resistance level located above Ichimoku cloud and Senkou Span line in the bullish area of the chart, and
• 0.7466 support level located near senkou Span on the border ebtween the primary bullish and the ranging bearish trend.
  

Daily price. United Overseas Bank is considering for AUD/USD price to be continuing with the bullish market condition with 0.7560/0.7600 possible bullish targets:

"There is no change to the bullish AUD view as we continue to anticipate a move to the immediate target at 0.7600. However, in order to maintain the current bullish impetus, AUD has to break above the short-term 0.7560 resistance within these 1 to 2 days as a prolonged consolidation below this level would lead to a rapid loss in momentum."

• If daily price breaks 0.7544 resistance level on close bar so the primary bullish trend will be continuing.
  
• If daily price breaks 0.7407 support level on close bar so the reversal of the price movement from the primary bullish to the ranging bearish market condition will be started: the price will be located inside Ichimoku cloud.
• If daily price breaks 0.7325 support level on close bar so the reversal of the daily price movement from the ranging bearish to the primary bearish trend will be started.
• If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

[Sergey Golubev]

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Non-Farm Payrolls and 66 pips price movement

2016-07-08 12:30 GMT | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]

• past data is 11K
• forecast data is 180K
• actual data is 287K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Non-Farm Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.

==========

"Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 287,000 in June, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job growth occurred in leisure and hospitality, health care and social assistance, and financial activities. Employment also increased in information, mostly reflecting the return of workers from a strike."

==========

EUR/USD M5: 66 pips price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news event :

[Sergey Golubev]

USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Canada's Employment Change and 57 pips price movement

2016-07-08 12:30 GMT | [CAD - Employment Change]

• past data is 13.8K
• forecast data is 6.5K
• actual data is -0.7K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CAD in our case)

[CAD - Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month.

==========

"Employment was unchanged in June (0.0%). The unemployment rate declined 0.1 percentage points to 6.8%, as the number of people searching for work edged down. In the second quarter of 2016, employment was little changed (+11,000 or +0.1%). This was the smallest quarterly change in employment in two years."

==========

USD/CAD M5: 57 pips price movement by Canada's Employment Change news event :

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Outlook: 2016, July 10 - July 17 (based on the article)

Rate decision in the UK and Canada, Employment data in the US and in Australia, US Producer Prices, Inflation data, Retail sales, Consumer Sentiment. These are the main market movers on forex calendar.

1. Canadian Rate decision: Wednesday, 14:00. July’s meeting is exactly one year after the last rate cut, down from 0.75% to 0.50%.
2. US Crude Oil Inventories: Wednesday, 14:00.
3. Australian Employment data: Thursday, 1:30. Economists expect a jobs gain of 10,100, with a rise to 5.8% in the unemployment rate.
4. UK Rate decision: Thursday, 11:00. Governor Mark Carney hinted the bank will provide further stimulus measures in light of the negative economic data following the UK referendum.
5. US PPI: Thursday, 12:30. Analysts expect Producer prices will rise 0.3% this time.
6. US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 12:30. Analysts estimate a 263,000 new claims this week.
7. US Inflation data: Friday, 12:30. Fewer economists expect the Fed will continue with its rate hike plans. Both CPI an Core CPI are expected to rise 0.2%.
8. US Retail sales: Friday, 12:30. Economists expect retail sales to rise 0.1%, while core sales are forecasted to rise 0.4%.
9. US Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment: Friday, 14:00. Consumer sentiment is expected to reach 93.7 in July.

[Sergey Golubev]

Credit Agricole with Week Ahead: Relative Value Trades With Degrees of Separation From The Brexit Trade (adapted from the article)

Credit Agricole was analysiing the Brexit situation onto the forex price movement with the taking into account the pairs with the good degrees of the separation from the Brexit trade for example:

• "Our preference still is for relative value trades like long AUD/NZD."
  
• "We stick with our long USD/CAD call as we maintain our constructive view on USD overall especially against G10 commodity currencies."
• "The outcome of the Upper House elections in Japan may increase the chances of structural reforms and add to investors bets on further BoJ easing. At the margin, this could help weaken the JPY."

Let's describe the situation with the technical points of view.

AUD/NZD - Next Week Forecast. Credit Agricole estimated for AUD/NZD to be in long situation but as we see from the daily chart - the p[rice is located below Ichimoku cloud in the bearish area of the chart by 1.0339 support level to be tested for the bearish breakdown to be continuing. The nearest resistance level at 1.0548 is located on the border with the secondary rally to be started and with 1.0774 resistance level as a bullish reversal target.

The most likely scenarios for the daily price are the following: the bearish breakdown will be continuing or the ranging within the bearish will be started.

USD/CAD - Next Week Forecast. Credit Agricole forecasted for the price to be in long for the coming week. As we see form the chart below - the price is on bullish market condition by Ichimoku cloud to be broken to above with 1.3055 resistance to be tested for the bullish trend to be continuing. Chinkou Span line is located near and below the price to be ready for the possible bullish breakout, and Trend Strength indicator together with Absolute Strength indicator are estimating the bullish trend to be continuing. Alternative, the breaking 1.2831 support level to below will lead to the bearish reversal to be started up to 1.2654 bearish target in this case for example.

Most likely scenarios for the daily price are the following: bullish breakout will be continuing or the ranging within the bullish will be started.

USD/JPY - Next Week Forecast. Credit Agricole indicated the local uptrend as the bear market rally for the price to be started in the coming week - the daily price is located below Ichimoku cloud in the primary bearish area of the chart with the ranging within the narrow support/resistance levels. So, the secondary rally may be started by 103.39 resistance level to be broken by the price to above and with 107.86 possible bullish reversal target, alternative - if the price breaks 100.19 support ot below on daily close bar so the ranging bearish market condition will be continuing with 98.93 bearish target to re-enter. 

Most likely scenario for the daily price is the following: bearish ranging within the levels.