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Sergey Golubev, 2016.07.07 08:24
NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: RBNZ Deputy Governor Spencer Speaks and 42 pips price movement
2016-07-07 05:30 GMT | [NZD - RBNZ Deputy Governor Spencer Speaks]
[NZD - RBNZ Deputy Governor Spencer Speaks] = RBNZ Deputy Governor Spencer Speaks on Housing risks require a broad policy response.
NZD/USD M5: 42 pips price movement by RBNZ Deputy Governor Spencer Speaks news event
Sergey Golubev, 2016.07.15 15:13
Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.S. Consumer Price Index and Advance Retail Sales
2016-07-15 12:30 GMT | [USD - CPI]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)
[USD - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.
2016-07-15 12:30 GMT | [USD - Retail Sales]
[USD - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level.
Market Watch :
"Sales at U.S. retailers rose 0.6% in June, led by a surge in spending at home-and-garden centers and online stores, the government said Friday. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had forecast a 0.1% increase. Stronger retail sales in June adds to evidence of a sharp rebound in U.S. growth in the recently ended second quarter."
NZD/USD M5: 27 pips price movement by U.S. Consumer Price Index and Advance Retail Sales news event
M5 intra-day price is on bearish breakdown: the price broke key support levels with 0.7133 level to be tested to below for the bearish trend to be continuing. Symmetric triangle pattern was formed by the price to be crossed for the direction:
if the price breaks 0.7133 support level to below so the bearish trend will be continuing;if the price breaks Daily Pivot at 0.7174 to above so the bullish reversal will be started;if not so the price will be on ranging for direction.
Sergey Golubev, 2016.07.16 11:34
Fundamental Weekly Forecasts for Dollar Index, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY, NZD/USD, AUD/USD, USD/CNH and GOLD (based on the article)
NZD/USD - "The recent China GDP could align with a
further flight of global capital into New-Zealand’s Bond Market. While
the correlation is messy, NZ 10-Yr Bonds have seen their yield fall
(Yields trade inversely to price) over the last 3-months from 2.89% down
to 2.21 % this week. That is a fall of ~25% in yields as the hunt for
yield may have found a friend in the New Zealand Bond Market.
Ironically, this may put further pressure on the RBNZ to hold or even
discuss raising rates if the property price appreciation gets too far
out of hand, as many argue it already has."
Daily price is located to be above 100 SMA/200 SMA reversal zone in the primary bullish area of the chart. The price is on ranging within 'bullish continuation' resistance level at 0.7323 and support level at 0.7078.
If the price breaks 0.7323 resistance to above on close daily bar so the primary bullish trend will be continuing.If the price breaks 0.7078 support level on close daily bar so the secondary correction within the primary bullish trend will be started.If the price breaks 0.6777 support to below so we may see the reversal of the price movement to the rpimary bearish market condition.If not so the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels.
Sergey Golubev, 2016.07.18 07:43
NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: New Zealand CPI and and 54 pips price movement
2016-07-17 22:45 GMT | [NZD - CPI]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for NZD in our case)
[NZD - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.
NZD/USD M5: 54 pips price movement by New Zealand CPI news event
Next Week Forecast: the most interesting pair you can make money with - NZD/USD
NZD/USD: breakdown with the bearish reversal. The pair is on secondary correction within the primary bullish condition with 0.6950 support level to be testing to below for the reversal of the price movement to the primary bearish market condition. The price is located within the following key support/resistance levels:
Descending triangle pattern was formed by the price to be crossed to below for the bearish trend to be started.
There are 2
simple scenarios for the price movement for the week:
Chinkou Span line is crossing the price to below on open daily bar for the possible daily breakdown.
Asif Naveed, 2016.07.27 12:02
TENDENCY FOR THE WEEK TENDENCY FOR THE MONTH JULY 27, 2016
Sergey Golubev, 2016.08.03 15:31
2016-08-03 12:15 GMT | [USD - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change]
[USD - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change] = Estimated change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry and government.
NZD/USD M5: 18 pips price movement by ADP Non-Farm Employment Change news event
Sergey Golubev, 2016.08.09 14:45
Staying USD Bearish - Morgan Stanley (based on the article)
NZD/USD: unreasonable ranging.
The pair is located to be above 100 SMA/200 SMA reversal on the bullish area of the chart. price is on ranging within key support/resistance levels for the bullish trend to be continuing or for the secondary correction to be started.
Sergey Golubev, 2016.08.11 06:47
NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: RBNZ Official Cash Rate and 155 pips range price movement
2016-08-10 21:00 GMT | [NZD - Official Cash Rate]
[NZD - Official Cash Rate] = Interest rate at which banks lend balances held at the RBNZ to other banks overnight.
"The Reserve Bank today reduced the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 2.0 percent."
"Global growth is below trend despite being supported by unprecedented
levels of monetary stimulus. Significant surplus capacity remains
across many economies and, along with low commodity prices, is
suppressing global inflation. Some central banks have eased policy
further since the June Monetary Policy Statement, and long-term
interest rates are at record lows. The prospects for global growth and
commodity prices remain uncertain. Political risks are also
"Weak global conditions and low interest rates relative to New Zealand
are placing upward pressure on the New Zealand dollar exchange rate.
The trade-weighted exchange rate is significantly higher than assumed in
the June Statement. The high exchange rate is adding further
pressure to the export and import-competing sectors and, together with
low global inflation, is causing negative inflation in the tradables
sector. This makes it difficult for the Bank to meet its inflation
objective. A decline in the exchange rate is needed."
NZD/USD M5: 155 pips range price movement by RBNZ Official Cash Rate news event
Sergey Golubev, 2016.08.12 07:10
NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: New Zealand Retail Sales and 31 pips range price movement
2016-08-11 22:45 GMT | [NZD - Retail Sales]
[NZD - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level.
NZD/USD M5: 31 pips range price movement by New Zealand Retail Sales news event
Sergey Golubev, 2016.08.13 06:39
Weekly Outlook: 2016, August 14 - August 21 (based on the article)
Japan GDP data, inflation figures from the UK and the US, Employment data from the UK the US, New Zealand and Australia, US FOMC Meeting Minutes release and Manufacturing Index. These are the highlights on forex calendar.
NZD/USD, W1 timeframe, bearish developing gartley pattern:
NZD/USD, H1 timeframe, bearish developing Retracement pattern:
So, seems - bearish ...