Press review - page 382

[Sergey Golubev]

NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: NZ Trade Balance and 17 pips price movement

2016-03-23 21:45 GMT | [NZD - Trade Balance]

• past data is 13M
• forecast data is 75M
• actual data is 339M according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for NZD in our case)

[NZD - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the reported month.

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NZDUSD M5: 17 pips price movement by NZ Trade Balance news event :

[Sergey Golubev]

Trading the News: U.K. Retail Sales (based on the article)

The U.K. Retail Sales report may produce headwinds for the British Pound and drag on GBP/USD as signs of a slowing recovery provides the Bank of England (BoE) with greater scope to further delay its normalization cycle.

What’s Expected:

Why Is This Event Important:

Even though BoE argues that the next policy move will be to lift the benchmark interest rate off of the record-low, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) may preserve its current policy throughout 2016 in an effort to mitigate the downside risks surrounding the real economy.

Nevertheless, the expansion in private-sector lending paired with the ongoing improvement in labor-market dynamics may boost household spending, and a positive development may generate a near-term rebound in GBP/USD as it puts pressure on Governor Mark Carney and Co. to normalize monetary policy sooner rather than later.

How To Trade This Event Risk

Bearish GBP Trade: Retail Sales Slips 1.0% or Greater

• Need red, five-minute candle following the GDP report to consider a short British Pound trade.
• If market reaction favors bearish sterling trade, short GBP/USD with two separate position.
• Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward.
• Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit, set reasonable limit.

Bullish GBP Trade: U.K. Consumption Beats Market Expectations

• Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long GBP/USD trade.
• Implement same setup as the bearish British Pound trade, just in reverse.

Potential Price Targets For The Release

GBPUSD Daily

• Longer-term outlook for GBP/USD remains tilted to the downside as the BoE continues to endorse a wait-and-see approach in 2016, and the pair may continue to carve a series of lower highs & lows over the near to medium-term should the Relative Strength Index (RSI) fail to retain the bullish formation carried over from earlier this year.
• Interim Resistance: 1.4910 (61.8% retracement) to 1.4930 (38.2% expansion)
• Interim Support: 1.3870 (78.6% expansion) and 1.4000 pivot

[Sergey Golubev]

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.K. Retail Sales and 31 pips range price movement

2016-03-24 09:30 GMT | [GBP - Retail Sales]

• past data is 2.3%
• forecast data is -0.7%
• actual data is -0.4% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level.

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• "Year-on-year estimates of the quantity bought in the retail industry showed growth for the 34th consecutive month in February 2016, increasing by 3.8% compared with February 2015.
• The underlying pattern in the data, as suggested by the 3 month on 3 month movement in the quantity bought, showed growth for the 27th consecutive month, increasing by 0.8%.
• Compared with January 2016, the quantity bought in the retail industry is estimated to have decreased by 0.4%."

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GBPUSD M5: 31 pips range price movement by U.K. Retail Sales news event :

[Sergey Golubev]

Trading the News: U.S. Durable Goods Orders (based on the article)

A 3.0% contraction in orders for U.S. Durable Goods may hamper the near-term advance in the greenback and spur a rebound in EUR/USD should the data print undermine Fed expectations for a ‘consumer-led’ recovery in 2016.

What’s Expected:



Why Is This Event Important:

A slowdown in private-sector consumption, one of the leading drivers of growth and inflation, may push the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to further delay the normalization cycle as the weakening outlook for the global economy derails hopes for a stronger recovery.

How To Trade This Event Risk

Bearish USD Trade: Demand for Large-Ticket Items Decline 3.0% or Greater

• Need to see green, five-minute candle following the release to consider a long trade on EURUSD.
• If market reaction favors a bearish dollar trade, buy EURUSD with two separate position.
• Set stop at the near-by swing low/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward.
• Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit.

Bullish USD Trade: U.S. Durable Goods Orders Exceed Market Forecast

• Need red, five-minute candle to favor a short EURUSD trade.
• Implement same setup as the bearish dollar trade, just in the opposite direction.

Potential Price Targets For The Release
EURUSD Daily

• EUR/USD may have marked a failed run at the 2016 high (1.1375) as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) fails to retain the bullish formation carried over from the previous month, but the pair may continue to consolidate with the broad range from 2015 as market participants continue to mull the timing of the next Fed rate-hike.
• Interim Resistance: 1.1510 (50% retracement) to 1.1520 (61.8% expansion)
• Interim Support: Interim Support: 1.0380 (78.6% expansion) to 1.0410 (61.8% expansion)

[Sergey Golubev]

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Durable Goods Orders and 10 pips range price movement

2016-03-24 12:30 GMT | [USD - Durable Goods Orders]

• past data is 4.7%
• forecast data is -3.0%
• actual data is -2.8% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Durable Goods Orders] = Change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for durable goods.

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EURUSD M5: 10 pips range price movement by Durable Goods Orders news event :

[Sergey Golubev]

EUR/USD - Long-Term Forecast: more bearish in a long-term for 0.95 target at year-end

Morgan Stanley made a long-term forecast concerbning the price movement for EUR.USD pair related to the end of this year:

• "MS targets EUR/USD at 1.06, 1.03, and 1.0 by the end of Q2, Q3, and Q4 respectively."

So, let's describe some of the interesting moments for EURUSD.

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EURUSD

W1 price is on primary bearish market condition located to be below 100 period SMA and 200 period SMA area with the secondary ranging within 1.1713 key bullish reversal resistance level and 1.0516 key bearish support level.

• if the price breaks 1.1713 resistance on close weekly bar so the reversal of the price movement from the primary bearish to the primary bullish trend will be started;
• if the price breaks 1.0516 support level so the bearish trend will be continuing up to S1 Yearly Pivot at 1.02 and S2 Yearly Pivot at 0.95 as the next bearish targets;
  
• if not so the price will be moved within the channel.

Resistance	Support
1.1376	1.0516
1.1713	1.0221

Most likely scenario:

• a short term situation (by the end of Q2): the price will be on bearish ranging within 1.13/1.14 resistance and 1.07/1.05 support;
  
• a medium term situation (by the end of Q3): support level at 1.0516 may be considered as the real bearish target;
  
• a long term situation (by the end of Q4): the price will break 1.0516 and 1.02 levels to below for S2 Yearly Pivot target at 0.95.

[Sergey Golubev]

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: French Gross Domestic Product and 8 pips price movement

2016-03-25 07:45 GMT | [EUR - French GDP]

• past data is 0.3%
• forecast data is 0.3%
• actual data is 0.3% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for EUR in our case)

[EUR - French GDP] = The Gross Domestic Product is a comprehensive measure of a France's overall production and consumption of goods and services.

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• "In Q4 2015, GDP in volume terms increased by 0.3%. On average over the year, growth accelerated: +1.2% in 2015 after +0.2% in 2014.
• Total gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) accelerated in Q4 (+0.7% after +0.1%) mostly driven up by non-financial corporations and general government. Household final consumption expenditure fell back (-0.1% after +0.4% in Q3 2015). All in all, final domestic demand excluding inventory changes decelerated slightly and contributed +0.2 points to GDP growth (after +0.3 points in previous quarter).
• Exports rebounded (+1.1% after -0.2%) and imports accelerated (+2.4% after +1.8%). In fine, the foreign trade balance contributed negatively to activity (-0.4 points after -0.6 points in Q3). On the contrary, changes in inventories contributed positively to GDP growth (+0.6 points, after +0.7 points)."

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EURUSD M5: 8 pips price movement by French Gross Domestic Product news event :

[Sergey Golubev]

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.S. Gross Domestic Product and 10 pips range price movement

2016-03-25 12:30 GMT | [USD - Final GDP]

• past data is 1.0%
• forecast data is 1.0%
• actual data is 1.4% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Final GDP] = Annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

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"Real gross domestic product -- the value of the goods and services produced by the nation's economy less the value of the goods and services used up in production, adjusted for price changes -- increased at an annual rate of 1.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2015, according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 2.0 percent."

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EURUSD M5: 10 pips range price movement by U.S. Gross Domestic Product news event :

[Sergey Golubev]

EUR/USD: Stuck In Range; Focus On Next Week's NFP - The Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ (based on the article)

• USD - "Next week’s business activity and payrolls data should keep Fed rate expectations and the USD supported."
• EUR - "We do not expect incoming inflation data to have any meaningful impact on rate expectations and the EUR."
• CAD - "Growth data is unlikely to trigger bigger changes to rate expectations and the CAD. We expect oil price developments to remain key."
• CHF - "The franc should be driven still by external factors such as risk sentiment rather than domestic data like the KOF leading indicator. However, low safe haven appeal may keep it an underperformer against the JPY."

EUR/USD: correction to bearish reversal. Daily price is on the secondary correction within the primary bullish market condition: the price is located near and above Ichimoku cloud and Senkou Span line which is the virtual border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend on the chart. If the price breaks 1.1143 key support level on the daily close bar so the bearish reversal will be started with the secondary ranging: the price will be located inside Ichimoku cloud. If the price breaks 1.1342 resistance level so the bullish trend will be continuing. Chinkou Span line is located near and above the price to be ready to break it to below for the good possible bearish breakdown.

There are the following news events which will be affected on EUR/USD price movement for the week:

• 2016-03-28 12:30 GMT | [USD - Core PCE Price Index]
• 2016-03-29 14:00 GMT | [USD - CB Consumer Confidence]
• 2016-03-29 15:30 GMT | [USD - Fed Chair Yellen Speaks]
• 2016-03-30 12:15 GMT | [USD - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change]
• 2016-04-01 12:30 GMT | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]
• 2016-04-01 14:00 GMT | [USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI]

Resistance	Support
1.1342	1.1143
1.1376	1.0821

[Sergey Golubev]

Forex Weekly Outlook Mar 28- Apr 1 (based on the article)

The US dollar managed to claw back some of its previous losses on the week leading to Easter. US CB Consumer Confidence, Janet Yellen’s speech, and the buildup to the all-important Non-Farm Payrolls report all stand out. These are the important events on forex calendar.

1. US CB Consumer Confidence: Tuesday, 14:00. Consumer confidence declined to a seven-month low of 92.2 in February from 98.1 posted in January.
2. Janet Yellen speaks: Tuesday, 16:30. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen will speak in New York. In her speech titled “Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy” she may refer to the Fed’s decision to cut the number of rate hikes in 2016 amid lower growth and inflation forecasts. Market volatility is expected. She may or may clear the confusion created by the dovish Fed decision and the consequent hawkish sounds.
3. US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change: Wednesday, 12:15. The ADP National Employment Report showed a job gain of 214,000 in February, beating economists’ expectations for 185,000 jobs addition.
4. US Crude Oil Inventories: Wednesday, 14:30.
5. Mark Carney speaks: Thursday, 8:00. BOE Governor Mark Carney will speak about financial stability in Tokyo. He may talk about the Brexit debate in the UK and its possible effects on the UK and the Eurozone. Volatility can be expected. We have seen rising chances of a Brexit following the Brussels bombings. This has an impact on the pound as well as the euro.
6. Canadian GDP: Thursday, 12:30. The Canadian economy expanded 0.2% in December exceeding market forecast of 0.1% gain.
7. US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 12:30. The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits climbed modestly last week, rising 6,000 to a seasonally reading of 265,000.
   
8. Chinese PMIs: Friday: the official one at 1:00 and the independent Caixin one at 1:45.
9. US Non-Farm Payrolls: Friday, 12:30 The U.S. employment market posted a better-than-expected jobs gain of 242,000 in February, beating forecasts of 195,000 addition. The strong reading followed a 172,000 gain in January. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.9%. Despite the strong figure, hourly wages actually fell 3 cents and equating to a 2.2% annualized jump, lower than 2.5% in January. Economists expect a job gain of 208,000 in March. This time, we will not have the ISM PMIs available before the release, so the level of uncertainty is higher.
10. US ISM Manufacturing PMI: Friday, 14:00.