Press review - page 388

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  

USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: CNY - USD-Denominated Trade Balance and 55 pips price movement

2016-04-13 02:22 GMT | [CNY - USD-Denominated Trade Balance]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNY - USD-Denominated Trade Balance] = Trade Balance in US Dollars terms.

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USD/CNH M5: 55 pips price movement by CNY - USD-Denominated Trade Balance news event :


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.S. Retail Sales and 30 pips price movement

2016-04-13 12:30 GMT | [USD - Retail Sales]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level.

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EUR/USD M5: 30 pips price movement by U.S. Retail Sales news event :


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  

USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: BoC Overnight Rate and 71 pips range price movement

2016-04-13 14:00 GMT | [CAD - Overnight Rate]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CAD in our case)

[CAD - Overnight Rate] = Interest rate at which major financial institutions borrow and lend overnight funds between themselves.

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  • "The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1/2 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 3/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 1/4 per cent."

  • "Growth in the global economy is expected to strengthen gradually from about 3 per cent in 2016 to 3 1/2 per cent in 2017-18, a weaker outlook than the Bank had projected in its January Monetary Policy Report (MPR). After a slow start to 2016, the US economy is expected to regain momentum, but with a lower profile and a composition that is less favourable for Canadian exports. Financial conditions have improved, partly in response to expectations of more accommodative monetary policy in some major economies."

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USD/CAD M5: 71 pips range price movement by BoC Overnight Rate news event :


Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate target at 1/2 per cent
Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate target at 1/2 per cent
  • www.bankofcanada.ca
The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is 25 May 2016. The next full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR on 13 July 2016.
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australian Employment Change and 32 pips price movement

2016-04-14 01:30 GMT | [AUD - Employment Change]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month.

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  • Employment increased 26,100 to 11,909,600. Full-time employment decreased 8,800 to 8,180,400 and part-time employment increased 34,900 to 3,729,200.
  • Unemployment decreased 7,300 to 723,100. The number of unemployed persons looking for full-time work decreased 7,900 to 515,900 and the number of unemployed persons only looking for part-time work decreased 1,800 to 208,400.
  • Unemployment rate decreased 0.1 pts to 5.7%.
  • Participation rate remained steady at 64.9%.
  • Monthly hours worked in all jobs decreased 17.5 million hours to 1,632.3 million hours.

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AUD/USD M5: 32 pips price movement by Australian Employment Change news event :


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  
Trading News Events: U.S. Consumer Price Index (based on the article)

What’s Expected:



Why Is This Event Important:

Even though the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) appears to be in no rush to implement higher borrowing-costs, stronger price growth may put increased pressure on the central bank to further normalize monetary policy especially as the U.S. economy approaches ‘full-employment.’

Nevertheless, waning confidence along with the slowdown in household spending may drag on price growth, and a softer-than-expected inflation report may weigh on the dollar as it increases the Fed’s scope to further delay its normalization cycle.

How To Trade This Event Risk

Bullish USD Trade: CPI Report Highlights Sticky U.S. Price Growth
  • Need red, five-minute candle following the NFP print to consider a short trade on EUR/USD.
  • If market reaction favors a bullish dollar trade, sell EUR/USD with two separate position.
  • Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward.
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit.
Bearish USD Trade: Headline & Core Rate of Inflation Fail to Meet Market Forecast
  • Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long EUR/USD trade.
  • Implement same setup as the bullish dollar trade, just in the opposite direction.
Potential Price Targets For The Release
EURUSD Daily


  • EUR/USD stands at risk for a larger pullback as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) fails to preserve the bullish formation carried over from February, with the next key downside region of interest coming in around 1.1090 (50% retracement) to 1.1110 (50% retracement).
  • Interim Resistance: 1.1510 (50% retracement) to 1.1520 (61.8% expansion)
  • Interim Support: Interim Support: 1.0380 (78.6% expansion) to 1.0410 (61.8% expansion)
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: BoE Interest Rates and 55 pips range price movement

2016-04-14 11:00 GMT | [GBP - BoE Interest Rates]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - BoE Interest Rates] = Interest rate at which the BOE lends to financial institutions overnight.

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"The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) sets monetary policy to meet the 2% inflation target and in a way that helps to sustain growth and employment.  At its meeting ending on 13 April 2016 the MPC voted unanimously to maintain Bank rate at 0.5%.  The Committee also voted unanimously to maintain the stock of purchased assets financed by the issuance of central bank reserves at £375 billion."

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GBP/USD M5: 55 pips range price movement by BoE Interest Rates news event :


Bank of England maintains Bank Rate at 0.5% and the size of the Asset Purchase Programme at £375 billion | Bank of England
Bank of England maintains Bank Rate at 0.5% and the size of the Asset Purchase Programme at £375 billion | Bank of England
  • www.bankofengland.co.uk
All members agree that, given the likely persistence of the headwinds weighing on the economy, when Bank Rate does begin to rise, it is expected to do so more gradually and to a lower level than in recent cycles. This guidance is an expectation, not a promise. The actual path Bank Rate will follow over the next few years will depend on the economic circumstances.
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.S. Consumer Price Index and 42 pips range price movement

2016-04-14 12:30 GMT | [USD - CPI]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[USD - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

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"The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.1 percent in March on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index rose 0.9 percent before seasonal adjustment."

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EUR/USD M5: 42 pips range price movement by U.S. Consumer Price Index news event :


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  

USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: China GDP and 38 pips range price movement

2016-04-15 02:00 GMT | [CNY - GDP]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNY - GDP] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

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  • China gross domestic product expanded 6.7 percent on year in the first quarter of 2016.
  • Industrial production was 6.8 percent in March compare with forecasts for 6.0 percent and up from 5.9 percent in February.
  • Retail sales advanced 10.5 percent on year which was expected for 10.3 percent only.

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USD/CNH M5: 38 pips range price movement by China GDP news event :


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  

USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Canada Manufacturing Shipments and 15 pips range price movement

2016-04-15 12:30 GMT | [CAD - Manufacturing Sales]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CAD in our case)

[CAD - Manufacturing Sales] = Change in the total value of sales made by manufacturers.

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  • "Manufacturing sales decreased 3.3% to $51.2 billion in February, following three months of consecutive gains."
  • "Sales were down in 16 of 21 industries, representing 73.5% of the manufacturing sector. Motor vehicles and petroleum and coal products were responsible for over two-thirds of the decrease. Motor vehicle parts, aerospace product and parts, and machinery also contributed to the decline."
  • "In constant dollars, sales declined 2.0%, reflecting a lower volume of goods sold."

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USD/CAD M5: 15 pips range price movement by Canada Manufacturing Shipments news event :


The Daily — Monthly Survey of Manufacturing, February 2016
  • 2016.04.15
  • www.statcan.gc.ca
Non-durable goods industries include food, beverage and tobacco products, textile mills, textile product mills, clothing, leather and allied products, paper, printing and related support activities, petroleum and coal products, chemicals, and plastics and rubber products. Durable goods industries include wood products, non-metallic mineral...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment and 29 pips range price movement

2016-04-15 14:00 GMT | [USD - UoM Consumer Sentiment]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - UoM Consumer Sentiment] = Level of a composite index based on surveyed consumers.

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Apr Mar Apr M-M Y-Y

2016 2016 2015 Change Change
Index of Consumer Sentiment 89.7 91.0 95.9 -1.4% -6.5%
Current Economic Conditions 105.4 105.6 107.0 -0.2% -1.5%
Index of Consumer Expectations 79.6 81.5 88.8 -2.3% -10.4%

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EUR/USD M5: 29 pips range price movement by University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment news event :


Surveys of Consumers
  • www.sca.isr.umich.edu
Consumer confidence continued its slow overall decline in early April, marking the fourth consecutive monthly decline. To be sure, the sizes of the recent losses have been quite small, with the Sentiment Index falling just 2.9 Index-points since December 2015, although it was down 6.2 Index-points from a year ago and 8.4 points below the peak...