Press review - page 376

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

Technical Targets for EUR/USD by United Overseas Bank (based on the article)

EUR/USD: Turn to Bearish

Daily price was moved to be below 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA for the porimary bearish market condition: the price was bounced from 1.0911 support level with symmetric triangle pattern to be formed for direction.

  • "The neutral phase that has been in place for about 2 weeks ended last Friday. As highlighted in recent updates, a daily closing below the key 1.0990 would indicate the start of a sustained down-move in EUR."
  • "That said, downward momentum is not very strong at this stage and we have a modest target of 1.0810. In order to maintain the current momentum, any rebound should not move above 1.1030."

RSI indicator is estimating the bearish trend to be continuing.  

  • If the price will break 1.1178 resistance level on close D1 bar so the reversal of the price movement from the primary bearish to the primary bullish trend will be started.
  • If price will break 1.0911 support on close daily bar so the bearish trend will be continuing.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
Resistance
Support
1.11781.0911
1.13761.0788


  • Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 1.0911 support level for possible sell trade
  • Recommendation to go long: watch the price to break 1.1178 resistance level for possible buy trade
  • Trading Summary: bearish
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Euro-Zone CPI Flash Estimate and 18 pips price movement

2016-02-29 10:00 GMT | [EUR - CPI Flash Estimate]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for EUR in our case)

[EUR - CPI Flash Estimate] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

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"Euro area annual inflation is expected to be -0.2% in February 2016, down from 0.3% in January, according to a flash estimate from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union."

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EURUSD M5: 18 pips price movement by Euro-Zone CPI Flash Estimate news event :


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Pending Home Sales and 23 pips price movement

2016-02-29 15:00 GMT | [USD - Pending Home Sales]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Pending Home Sales] = Change in the number of homes under contract to be sold but still awaiting the closing transaction, excluding new construction.

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"The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, declined 2.5 percent to 106.0 in January from an upwardly revised 108.7 in December but is still 1.4 percent above January 2015 (104.5). Although the index has increased year-over-year for 17 consecutive months, last month’s annual gain was the second smallest (September 2014 at 1.2 percent) during the timeframe."

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, says a myriad of reasons likely contributed to January contract signings subsiding in most of the country. "While January’s blizzard possibly caused some of the pullback in the Northeast, the recent acceleration in home prices and minimal inventory throughout the country appears to be the primary obstacle holding back would-be buyers,” he said. “Additionally, some buyers could be waiting for a hike in listings come springtime."

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EURUSD M5: 23 pips price movement by Pending Home Sales news event :


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

Technical Intra-Day Targets for EUR/USD by United Overseas Bank (based on the article)

EUR/USD: Bearish to 1.0800 psy target

Intra-day price was moved to be below 100 SMA/200 SMA area for the primary bearish market condition: the price was bounced from 1.0858 support level for the ranging bearish condition to be started.

  • "We just turned bearish EUR yesterday and there is no change to the view. As mentioned, we have a modest target of 1.0810 with a stop-loss at 1.1030 even though 1.0965 is already a strong resistance."
  • "Overall, only a move back above 1.0935 would indicate that a temporary low is in place."

RSI indicator is estimating the ranging bearish condition to be continuing.  

  • If the price will break 1.1149 resistance level so the reversal of the price movement from the primary bearish to the primary bullish trend will be started.
  • If price will break 1.0858 support level so the bearish trend will be continuing with 1.0800 psy level as the target.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
Resistance
Support
1.11491.0858
N/A1.0800


  • Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 1.0858 support level for possible sell trade
  • Recommendation to go long: watch the price to break 1.1149 resistance level for possible buy trade
  • Trading Summary: bearish
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

Technical Intra-Day Targets for GBP/USD by United Overseas Bank (based on the article)

GBP/USD: Bearish ranging with 1.3800 psy support target

Intra-day price is located below 100 SMA/200 SMA for the primary bearish market condition with the secondary ranging.

  • "The price action over the last couple of days reinforces our view wherein GBP is expected to struggle to move lower towards the next support at 1.3800."
  • "Momentum has slowed further but from here, only a move above 1.4020 (adjusted from 1.4050) would indicate that a short-term low is in place. Until then, there is still a slim chance that we will see another leg lower to 1.3800."

RSI indicator is estimating the ranging bearish to be continuing.  

  • If the price will break 1.4100 resistance level so the local uptrend as the secondary market rally within the primary bearish market condition will be started.
  • If price will break 1.3835 support level so the bearish trend will be continuing with 1.3800 psy level as the target.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
Resistance
Support
1.41001.3835
1.43961.3800


  • Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 1.3835 support level for possible sell trade
  • Recommendation to go long: watch the price to break 1.4100 resistance level for possible buy trade
  • Trading Summary: bearish
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Canada Gross Domestic Product and 74 pips price movement

2016-03-01 13:30 GMT | [CAD - GDP]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CAD in our case)

[CAD - GDP] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

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  • "Real gross domestic product grew 0.2% in December, after rising 0.3% in November. Manufacturing and wholesale trade increased in December, while retail trade, mining, quarrying and oil and gas extraction as well as utilities posted notable declines."
  • "The value added of service industries rose 0.5% in the fourth quarter, while that of goods-producing industries declined 0.9%."

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USDCAD M5: 74 pips price movement by Canada Gross Domestic Product news event :


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

Quick Technical Overview - S&P 500: 1,890 is important (adapted from the article)

H1 price is located to be above 100 period SMA (100 SMA) and 200 period SMA (200 SMA) in the bullish area of the chart: the secondary correction was started by the price for trying to break 1,928 support level to below for the secondary correction to be continuing.

  • If the price will break 1,962 resistance level so we may see the bullish trend to be continuing.
  • If price will break 1,890 support so the reversal of the intra-day price movement from the primary bullish to the primary ebarish market condition will be started.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
Resistance
Support
1,9621,928
N/A
1,890


  • Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 1,890 support level for possible sell trade
  • Recommendation to go long: watch the price to break 1,962 resistance level for possible buy trade
  • Trading Summary: correction

SUMMARY : correction

TREND : primary bullish
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: UK Construction PMI and 26 pips price movement

2016-03-02 09:30 GMT | [GBP - Construction PMI]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - Construction PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the construction industry.

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"The  headline  seasonally  adjusted Markit/CIPS  UK Construction Purchasing  Managers’  Index® (PMI®) registered  54.2  in  February,  down  from  55.0 in January and the lowest since April 2015. Although still  above  the  50.0  value  that  separates  expansion from contraction, the latest reading pointed to one of the  weakest  rises  in  construction  output  seen  over the past two-and-a-half years."

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GBPUSD M5: 26 pips price movement by UK Construction PMI news event :


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

Crude Oil Intra-Day Fundamentals: price is testing 36.07 support level by U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased by 10.4M barrels from the previous week

2016-03-02 15:30 GMT | [USD - Crude Oil Inventories]

[USD - Crude Oil Inventories] = Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week.

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"U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 10.4 million barrels from the previous week. At 518.0 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are at historically high levels for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 1.5 million barrels last week, but are well above the upper limit of the average range. Both finished gasoline inventories and blending components inventories decreased last week. Distillate fuel inventories increased by 2.9 million barrels last week and are above the upper limit of the average range for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories fell 3.7 million barrels last week but are well above the upper limit of the average range. Total commercial petroleum inventories increased by 9.9 million barrels last week."

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Crude Oil M5 price movement by U.S. commercial crude oil inventories news event :


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

Technical Targets for EUR/USD by United Overseas Bank (based on the article)

EUR/USD: Bearish Ranging.

  • "EUR moved to a low of 1.0823 before rebounding to close almost unchanged for the day. Indicators continue to show sign of basing but any recovery is unlikely to move significantly above 1.0920."
  • "The overnight low of 1.0823 did not reach our partial profittaking level of 1.0810. While only a break above 1.0965 would indicate that the current bearish phase has ended, downward momentum is struggling and at this stage, a sustained down-move below 1.0810 appears unlikely."


The intra-day price (H4) broke 200 period SMA/100 period SMA for the primary bearish market condition. The price is started to be ranging within 1.0825 support level and 1.0880 resistance level.

  • If the price breaks 1.0825 support on close H4 bar so the primary bearish trend will be continuing.
  • If the price breaks 1.0880 resistance level on close H4 bar so the local uptrend as the secondary rally will be started within the primary bearish condition up to 1.1067 bullish reversal target.
  • If not so the price will be on ranging bearish condition.