EUR/USD Forecasts by Danske Bank (adapted from the source)
"EUR/USD has bought into fading ECB-Fed policy divergence after the
ECB largely gave up the fight for euro depreciation and following recent
dovish Fed comments. With positioning now much lighter in terms of
short EUR/USD bets, we are probably entering a period in which relative
rates could increasingly play a role again, and with a mere 50/50
pricing of a September Fed hike, and the ECB once again challenged on
its mandate by market inflation expectations, we see relative rates
moving for a weaker EUR/USD in 1-3M. Notably a negative Brexit risk
premium could also be factored in ahead of the UK referendum but should
be priced out swiftly in our main scenario of no Brexit."
keep our forecast profile unchanged, which leaves some downside near
term (1-3M forecast at 1.12) followed by a sustained move higher towards
1.18 in 12M as valuation continues to drive the cross higher."
Forex Weekly Outlook April 18-22 (based on the article)
German ZEW Economic Sentiment, US Building Permits, Glenn Stevens’s speech, UK employment data, US Crude Oil Inventories, Eurozone rate decision, US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and Unemployment claims. These are the highlights of this week.
Fundamental Weekly Forecasts for Dollar Index, GBPUSD, USDJPY, USD/CNH and GOLD (based on the article)
Dollar Index - "The final theme to consider is risk trends. We’ve not seen the
Dollar truly rediscover its ultimate haven status is some time, and
recovering it would require extreme risk aversion – possible but not
something to hold our breath for. In contrast, there is a tangible ‘risk’ aspect to oil prices
taking place. Low oil prices, usually considered a boon, are leveraging
serious threats in EM economy collapses and debt failure. There is even
a direct inflation aspect here that returns to the Fed. It will be
important to watch the Doha meet outcome."
GBP/USD - "While economic data surprises such as increased
inflation measurements are nice, it’s unlikely we’ll see anything close
to a surge of GBP buying outside the occurrence that Brexit risk is
diminishing or has diminished. Additionally, even polls showing a shift
in the ‘Vote Stay’ or ‘BRemain’ camp taking a lead are unlikely to be a
dramatic catalyst for GBP bargain hunters just yet."
USD/JPY - "In the meantime, there is a threat to the
long side of the Yen, and that’s the prospect of BoJ intervention in the
spot market. Earlier this week, the head of the BoJ mentioned that he
felt that Yen strength had been ‘excessive,’ which would be the most
concerted tone that Mr. Kuroda has offered on such matters publicly.
This can also be seen as a threat to traders looking to sit in the long
Yen trade. But with a G7 meeting in Tokyo set for May, the timing of
intervening in the spot market may be ill-suited to such actions.
Previous G7 meetings have seen condemnation around ‘beggar thy
neighbor,’ currency-weakness based monetary strategies, and Japan might
want to avoid such a scenario on their own home turf."
USD/CNH - "The probability of PBOC cutting RRR after the
Fed’s next meeting on April 27th is high. The Fed will determine
whether to raise US benchmark rates at this meeting, and the probability
of the Fed increasing rates in the April meeting is 0% and for June is
currently showing at 15.4% based on Fed Funds futures. The Yuan’s
appreciation against the US Dollar over the past two weeks has helped to
slow down the pace of capital flowing out of China."
GOLD (XAU/USD) - "From a technical standpoint, gold is either setting up a
multi-month head & shoulders top OR consolidating into a triangle
with an inevitable topside breach favored. In either case, the key
levels remain the same with key support eyed at 1211/12 backed by our broader bullish invalidation level at 1191/93. Resistance stands at the February & March high-day closes at 1246/50 with a breach above the median-line confluence, just ahead of the 2016 high-close at 1271
needed to validate the next leg higher. Note that daily momentum has
continued to hold above 50 since the start of the year and we’ll want to
see this continue if the long-bias is to remain intact."
NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: NZ Consumer Price Index and 75 pips range price movement
2016-04-17 22:45 GMT | [NZD - CPI]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for NZD in our case)
[NZD - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.
NZD/USD M5: 75 pips range price movement by NZ Consumer Price Index news event
EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: FOMC Member Dudley Speaks and 16 pips range price movement
2016-04-18 12:30 GMT | [USD - FOMC Member Dudley Speaks]
[USD - FOMC Member Dudley Speaks] = The speech opening remarks at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's conference.
EUR/USD M5: 16 pips range price movement by FOMC Member Dudley Speech news event
Technical evaluation of long-term BNZ forecasts (adapted from the article)
Bank of New Zealand made a long-term forecasts for some pairs as the following:
As we do not know the trading system they used for this forecast so let's evaluate on technical way by Metatrader together with using free Codebase indicators.
EUR/USD. As we see from the chart below - weekly price is on bearish market condition with the ranging within the following key support/resistance levels:
The price is on local uptrend as the bear market rally to be started in the end of February this year: price is testing Fibo resistance level at 1.1464 to above for the rally to be continuing. The next alternative scenario was evaluated by BNZ and it is related to the following: the price will be on bearish ranging within narrow support/resistance levels such as the following: 23.6% Fibo level at 1.1241 and 50.0% Fibo level at 1.0993. Bank of New Zealand is expecting for this ranging bearish condition to be continuing up to the end of Q1'17 for example.I think the more likely sscenario for this pair in long-term situation is to ranging with more wide levels within 1.1400 and 1.1000, and those levels are fully related to the daily chart's s/r/ levels together RSI and price pattern's expectation for example.
NZD/USD. BNZ is estimating for this pair to be on bearish ranging within very narrow levels with the bearish trend to be continuing since 0.6500 to 0.6100. But if we look at weekly chart so we can see the bearish market condition with the different ranging levels: the price is on ranging within Fibo resistance level at 0.6965 and 61.8% Fibo support level at 0.6564. By the way, the ascending triangle p[attern was formed by the price to be crossed for the bear market rally to be continuing with the possible buloish reversal to be started in the future.
RSI indicator is also estinating the secondary rally with possible bullish reversal.Thus, the most likely scenarios for the pair are the following: bearish ranging within 0.69/0.65 levels, or the bullish erversal to be started in case the price breaks 0.6965 to above.
AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes and 20 pips range price movement
2016-04-19 01:30 GMT | [AUD - RBA Meeting Minutes]
AUD/USD M5: 20 pips range price movement by Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes news event
Technical Intra-Day Targets for EUR/USD by United Overseas Bank (based on the article)
EUR/USD: ranging within 1.1233 and 1.1331
is located near and below 100 period SMA (100 SMA) and above 200 period SMA (200 SMA) for
the ranging market condition: the price is testing 1.1331 level to above for the bullish reversal, alternative - if the price breaks 1.1233 support level to below so the bearish reversal will be started.
Anyway, UOB is still looking for the bearish trend for this pair in intra-day basis, for example:
"There is no change to our bearish view but as highlighted previously,
downward momentum is not very strong and the downside potential is
likely limited to 1.1145. Stop-loss remains unchanged at 1.1395 but
1.1350 is already a strong short-term resistance."
RSI indicator is estimating the ranging bullish trend to be continuing.
Technical Intra-Day Targets for GBP/USD by United Overseas Bank (based on the article)
GBP/USD: bullish breakout with 1.4347 as the target to be continuing
broke 100 SMA/200 SMA reversal area to above by good breakout: the price is testing 1.4347 resistance level for the bullish trend to be continuing, otherwise the price will be ranging within 1.4347 bullish resistance level and 1.4040 bearish support level. By the way, UOB is evaluating the trend for this pair as a neutral with 1.4000/1.4350 range:
"Improving short-term momentum suggests that a test of the top-end of our expected 1.4000/1.4350 range will not be surprising. However, the overall outlook is mixed and even a break above 1.4350
is not expected to move significantly above the late March high of
EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: ECB Current Account and 12 pips range price movement
2016-04-19 08:00 GMT | [EUR - Current Account]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for EUR in our case)
[EUR - Current Account] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods, services,
income flows, and unilateral transfers during the previous month.
EUR/USD M5: 12 pips range price movement by ECB Current Account news event