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EUR/USD Forecast Dec. 28 – Jan. 1 (based on the article)

EUR/USD gained some ground ahead of the Christmas holiday and edged closer to 1.10. The last week of the year features two figures. Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.

Spain’s elections resulted in a hung parliament and this stirred some worries, worries that support the euro on safe haven flows. However, some of the moves are related to end-of-year action. In the US, we learned that final GDP is 2% in Q3, within expectations. Housing disappointed while durable goods orders were OK.

  1. Spanish Flash CPI: Wednesday, 8:00. The euro-zone’s fourth largest economy has seen significant growth and also significant inflation. Prices fell 0.3% in November y/y and now we gets preliminary data for December. A rise of 0.1% is expected.
  2. Monetary data: Wednesday, 9:00. The ECB’s loose monetary policy is making its way into the system via money supply and more private loans. The former has risen 5.3% y/y and 5.2% is now on the cards. The latter saw 1.2% and 1.3% is on the cards now.

GBP/USD Forecast Dec. 28 – Jan. 1 (based on the article)

GBP/USD showed some downward movement but ended the week unchanged, closing at 1.4925. The final week of 2015 has just two events on the schedule. Here is an outlook on the major events moving the pound and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD.

In the US, Final GDP for the third quarter posted a gain of 2%, very close to the estimate. Housing numbers disappointed, and durable goods were weak, but within expectations.

  1. Nationwide HPI: Wednesday, 7:00. This housing inflation indicator provides a snapshot of the health of the activity of the UK housing sector. The index slipped to 0.1% to November, well off the estimate of 0.5%. The markets are expecting a turnaround in December, with an estimate of 0.4%.
  2. Housing Equity Withdrawal: Thursday, 9:30. New home-secured loans decreased in the second quarter, dropping by GBP 10.9 billion, better than the estimate of GBP 12.5 billion. The markets are expecting a decrease of GBP 10.5 billion in Q3.

Forex Forecast 2015 Dec. 27 – 2016 Jan. 01

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2015-12-27 23:50 GMT | [JPY - Retail Sales]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for JPY in our case)

[JPY - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level.

==========

2015-12-29 13:30 GMT | [USD - International Trade in Goods]


if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - International Trade in Goods] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the reported month.

==========

2015-12-29 15:00 GMT | [USD - Consumer Confidence]


if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Consumer Confidence] = Level of a composite index based on surveyed households.

==========

2015-12-30 15:00 GMT | [USD - Pending Home Sales]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Pending Home Sales] = Change in the number of homes under contract to be sold but still awaiting the closing transaction, excluding new construction.

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2015-12-31 13:30 GMT | [USD - Jobless Claims]


if actual < forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Jobless Claims] = The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week.

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2015-12-31 14:45 GMT | [USD - Chicago PMI]


if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Chicago PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the Chicago area.

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2016-01-01 14:45 GMT | [CNY - Manufacturing PMI]


if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNY - Manufacturing PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry.

Bank of Montreal - oil will slide to $25, $20, even as low as $15 in 2016 (based on the article)


Could oil prices collapse to $20?

"The short answer is ‘yes.’ We believe that crude oil prices could fall further unless global oil production is reduced. As shown in Table 2, we estimate that the global oil market could be oversupplied by roughly 920,000 bpd in 2016. The key assumptions are year-over-year growth in global demand of 1.2 million bpd, Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Libya hold production at current levels, Iran ramps up production at moderate pace over the course of the year and the U.S. rig count remains at current levels."


Bank of Montreal Asks If "Oil Prices Could Collapse To $20"; Answers: "Yes" | Zero Hedge
Bank of Montreal Asks If "Oil Prices Could Collapse To $20"; Answers: "Yes" | Zero Hedge
  • www.zerohedge.com
When looking at the price of oil in 2015, Canada's Bank of Montreal admits it was wrong. Very, very wrong. In our "2015 Year Ahead" report we laid out three plausible scenarios: (1) our base case, which forecast Brent crude oil prices of $50-60/bbl over the first half of 2015 and $60-80/bbl over the second half of the year; (2) a bull case...

Something to read - 6 Interesting Trading Articles (based on the article)

  1. Day Trading with Bollinger Bands
  2. How to Use trendlines For Trading – Dispelling the Myths: Trendlines are a useful tool for visually highlighting a trend, and potentially being part of a trading strategy. There is a lot of myths and inaccurate information about trendlines though; learning how to use trendlines effectively–if you are going to use them–is crucial so you don’t fall into several common traps.
  3. Don’t Trade Based on MACD Divergence Until You Read This – MACD divergence is highly inaccurate. Learn how, why and under what conditions the MACD is likely to produce false signals.
  4. How to Day Trade the Forex Market In Two Hours or Less a Day
  5. How to Day Trade Stocks in 2 Hours or Less – Extensive Guide: Here’s an extensive guide on how to day trade stocks in two hours or less each day, including how to find stocks to day trade, when to day trade, strategies you can use to profit, staying focused and how to work your orders.
  6. Day Trading False Breakouts, One of the Best Day Trading Strategies – Frustrated by false breakouts when day trading? Turn the tables and profit off of them. Here’s how and why to trade a false breakout strategy.

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Forecast for Q1'16 - levels for USD/JPY

Sergey Golubev, 2015.12.28 06:44

USD/JPY Intra-Day Fundamentals - Retail Sales and 32 pips price movement

2015-12-27 23:50 GMT | [JPY - Retail Sales]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for JPY in our case)

[JPY - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level

==========

USDJPY M5: 32 pips price movement by JPY - Retail Sales news event :



EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Waiting to Confirm Head and Shoulders Pattern Before Triggering Short Trade (based on the article)


  • "Near-term support is in the 1.0777-1.0818 area, marked by the May 27 low and the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion, with a break below that on a daily closing basis opening the door for a test of the 38.2% level at 1.0602. Alternatively, a push above the December 15 high at 1.1060 paves the way for a challenge of falling trend line resistance at 1.1201."
  • "The Head and Shoulders setup requires a breach of neckline support at 1.0777 to become actionable, which has yet to materialize. Furthermore, the threat of risk aversion ahead represents a possibly potent catalyst for Euro gains amid the unwinding of carry trade positions. With that in mind, we will remain on the sidelines for the time being."

As we see from the chart above - the weekly price is on primary bearish market condition to be below 100 SMA/200 SMA, and 1.0803 support is 23.6% Fibo level which is located near and below the market price for now.

The bullish reversal resistance level is Fibo resistance at 1.1812, and if the price breaks it to above so the reversal of the price movement from the primary bearish to the primary bullish condition will be started.

By the way, the bearish 'reversal' level for this timeframe is Fibo support at 1.0520, and the price will be continuing with the bearish condition by breaking this level to below.

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals - International Trade in Goods and 38 pips price movement

2015-12-29 13:30 GMT | [USD - International Trade in Goods]

  • past data is -58.4B
  • forecast data is -60.7B
  • actual data is -60.5B according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - International Trade in Goods] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the reported month.

==========

EURUSD M5: 38 pips price movement by USD - International Trade in Goods news event :


EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals - Consumer Confidence and 12 pips price movement

2015-12-29 15:00 GMT | [USD - Consumer Confidence]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Consumer Confidence] = Level of a composite index based on surveyed households.

==========

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index®, which had decreased moderately in November, improved in December. The Index now stands at 96.5 (1985=100), up from 92.6 in November. The Present Situation Index increased from 110.9 last month to 115.3 in December, while the Expectations Index improved to 83.9 from 80.4 in November.

==========

EURUSD M5: 12 pips price movement by USD - Consumer Confidence news event :


Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Central Bank Calendar 2016

Mohammad Soubra, 2015.12.30 01:30

Central Bank Calendar 2016   

---

2016JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
US Federal Reserve
(FOMC)		27-1627-1527-21-214
European Central Bank
(ECB)		21-1021-221-820-8
Bank of England
(BOE)		144171412161441513315
Swiss National Bank
(SNB)		--17--16--15--15
Bank of Canada
(BOC)		20-91325-13-719-7
Bank of Japan
(BOJ)		29-1528-1629-21-120
Reserve Bank of Australia
(RBA)		-21537526416
Reserve Bank of New Zealand
(RBNZ)		28-1028-9-1122-10-
Riksbank
(SEK)		-11-21--5-----
Norges Bank
(NOK)		--17-1223--2227-15

 


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