European Central Bank Interest Rate Decision to Retain Current Policy & Forward-Guidance - Trading Systems

Sergey Golubev 2013.12.25 18:20 #121

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Stochastics the professional's preferred Market Condition Evaluation based Something Interesting

Sergey Golubev 2014.01.09 08:42 #122

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

newdigital, 2014.01.09 09:40

Trading the News: European Central Bank Interest Rate Decision (adapted from dailyfx article)

European Central Bank (ECB) to Retain Current Policy & Forward-Guidance
President Mario Draghi to Highlight Threat for Disinflation?

The European Central Bank (ECB) may help to prop up the single currency as the Governing Council is widely expected to keep the benchmark interest rate on hold while preserving its forward-guidance for monetary policy.

What’s Expected:

Time of release: 01/09/2014 12:45 GMT, 7:45 EST
Primary Pair Impact: EURUSD
Expected: 0.25%
Previous: 0.25%
Forecast: 0.25%

Why Is This Event Important:

A further delay in the ECB’s easing cycle may instill a bullish outlook for the EURUSD as President Mario Draghi retains a wait-and-see approach, but the single currency may struggle to hold its ground should the central bank head highlight a greater risk for disinflation.

Bearish EUR Trade: ECB Provides More Detailed Monetary Easing Timeline

Need red, five-minute candle following the decision/statement to consider a short Euro trade
If market reaction favors a short trade, sell EURUSD with two separate position
Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from cost; at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is met, set reasonable limit

Bullish EUR Trade: Governing Council to Further Delay Easing Cycle

Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long EURUSD trade
Implement same strategy as the bearish euro trade, just in the opposite direction

MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

EURUSD, D1, 2014.01.09

MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo

temp_file_screenshot_10238.png

EURUSD, D1, 2014.01.09, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo

EURUSD Technical Analysis 05.01 Press review Market Condition Evaluation based

Sergey Golubev 2014.01.13 14:30 #123

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Sergey Golubev 2014.01.14 13:01 #124

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

newdigital, 2014.01.14 14:00

2013-01-14 09:30 GMT (or 10:30 MQ MT5 time) | [GBP - CPI]

past data is 2.1%
forecast data is 2.1%
actual data is 2.0% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

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U.K. Inflation Hits Target For First Time Since 2009

U.K. inflation hit the Bank of England's 2 percent target for the first time in more than than four years in December, suggesting that prices were not bloated by robust economic recovery, official data showed Tuesday.

Consumer prices rose 2 percent year-on-year, the slowest since November 2009, the Office for National Statistics said. The rate was forecast to remain stable at 2.1 percent.

But, on a monthly basis, consumer prices gained 0.4 percent, faster than the 0.1 percent rise posted in the prior month. Nonetheless, the outcome was slightly slower than the expectations for 0.5 percent.

The largest contributions to the fall in inflation was from prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages and recreational goods and services.

Excluding energy, food, alcoholic beverages and tobacco, core inflation eased marginally to 1.7 percent in December from 1.8 percent in November.

Press review Market Condition Evaluation based EURUSD Technical Analysis 2014,

Sergey Golubev 2014.01.16 06:45 #125

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

newdigital, 2014.01.16 05:58

2013-01-16 00:30 GMT (or 01:30 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - Employment Change]

past data is 5.8%
forecast data is 5.8%
actual data is 5.8% according to the latest press release

if actual < forecast = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

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Australia Unemployment Rate Unchanged At 5.8%

Australia posted a seasonally adjusted unemployment rate of 5.8 percent in December, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday.

That was in line with expectations and unchanged from the November reading.

But the Australian economy lost 22,600 jobs last month to 11,629,500 versus expectations for an increase of 10,000 jobs following the addition of 21,000 jobs a month earlier.

Full-time employment decreased 31,600 to 8,067,700 and part-time employment increased 9,000 to 3,561,800.

The participation rate was 64.6 percent - also shy of forecasts for 64.8 percent, which would have been unchanged from November.

MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

AUDUSD, H1, 2014.01.16

MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo

temp_file_screenshot_35627.png

AUDUSD, H1, 2014.01.16, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo