Fundamental Market Analysis for November 6, 2026 EURUSD
Event to watch today:
15:30 EET. USA - Unemployment Rate
EURUSD:
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On Friday, the euro weakened against the dollar amid a decline in tech stocks. Selling pressure spread from US markets to Asian ones, increasing demand for the dollar. Meanwhile, yields on US Treasury bonds fell at the close of the previous session. Therefore, the dollar's advantage now depends primarily on whether investor caution persists.
The euro retains support from interest rate expectations. According to Eurostat's preliminary estimate, annual inflation in October rose from 3.8% to 4.0%. However, the main price pressure is coming from energy sources, and the ECB points out that expensive energy simultaneously worsens growth prospects. Therefore, accelerating inflation supports expectations of tightening, but leaves open the question of when the next step will be taken.
Ahead of the labor market report, the initial jobless claims falling to 189 thousand favors the dollar. If October data confirm employment resilience, the market may once again raise its assessment of the probability of a December Fed rate hike. Rising unemployment, conversely, could revive demand for the euro. As investors reduce risk, the base scenario allows for a decline in EURUSD.
Trading idea: SELL 1.1200, SL 1.1225, TP 1.1145
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