📈 A stable trend is not just a long candle - it is a gold mine for a trader.
The following indicators were used to assess trend stability:📌 R² - shows how smooth and consistent the price movement was. The closer the value is to 1, the “cleaner” the trend and the fewer random deviations it contains.
📌 Change over 6 months - the change in price from the beginning of the period to the end. For example, +7.0% means a 7% rise, while -32.5% means a 32.5% decline.
📌 Weeks “in trend” - the share of weeks when the price moved in the direction of the main trend. For example, 70% means that roughly 7 out of 10 weeks matched the overall direction.
📌 Maximum streak - the longest uninterrupted number of weeks during which the movement continued in the same direction.
Stability across the two half-periods was also taken into account - whether the same trend direction was maintained in the first and second halves of the period. If there was no reversal between them, the trend was considered more stable.
🥇 AUD/CHF - the “cleanest” trend
📈 Rise: +7.0%
R²: 0.79 / 67% of weeks matched the trend direction, maximum streak - 6 weeks.
The main advantage - the upward movement remained intact in both half-periods with minimal volatility.
🥈 DOT/USD - the strongest directional move
📉 Decline: -32.5%
R²: 0.79 / 63% of weeks moved with the trend, maximum streak - 5 weeks.
Important: the main decline continued until mid-August, after which a rapid rebound began.
🥉 AUD/CAD
📈 Rise: +4.5%
R²: 0.60 / The ranking leader by the share of weeks matching the trend - 70%. The maximum streak was 5 weeks, and the upward movement remained intact in both halves of the period.
4. USD/CHF
📈 Rise: +4.1%
R²: 0.57 / 56% of weeks matched the main direction, maximum streak - 5 weeks, and the upward movement remained intact in both halves of the period.
5. XAU/USD - gold
📉 Decline: -15.1%
R²: 0.42 / 63% of weeks moved in the direction of the main trend, maximum streak - 5 weeks. The main decline occurred in March-June, while an upward correction began in July.
💡 Conclusion: AUD/CHF showed the most stable and “cleanest” trend, DOT/USD recorded the strongest move by magnitude, while AUD/CAD became the leader by the share of weeks matching the main direction.
⚠️ The ranking reflects the stability of past movements and does not guarantee their continuation in the future.
⚠️ The data is provided for informational and analytical purposes and represents a statistical assessment of the market situation, not a call to trade or an investment recommendation.
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