XAUUSD Daily Technical & Fundamental Analysis — February 17, 2026
Analytics & Forecasts

XAUUSD Daily Technical & Fundamental Analysis — February 17, 2026

17 February 2026, 10:05
Zenzo Phathisani Mtungwa
Zenzo Phathisani Mtungwa
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XAUUSD Daily Technical & Fundamental Analysis — February 17, 2026

Current Market Context (Macro Bias)

Gold remains in a medium-term bullish structure, but is currently in a short-term consolidation phase following recent impulsive movements driven by USD expectations and rate outlook uncertainty.

Gold is highly sensitive to:

  • US Dollar strength

  • Treasury yields

  • Federal Reserve rate expectations

  • Risk sentiment and geopolitical positioning

Economic calendars confirm that traders should monitor US macro releases and Fed-related signals, as these directly impact gold volatility and direction.

4-Hour Chart — Primary Market Structure

20 EMA Behavior (Critical Trend Indicator)

The 20 EMA on the H4 chart currently acts as:

  • Dynamic support in bullish continuation

  • Dynamic resistance during pullbacks

Current behavior suggests:

  • Price is oscillating around the 20 EMA

  • EMA slope remains slightly upward

  • This confirms bullish control but weakening momentum

Interpretation:

• Above 20 EMA → bullish continuation bias
• Below 20 EMA → corrective pullback phase
• Rejection from 20 EMA → high-probability continuation entry

Key Support Levels (H4 & Daily)

Major institutional levels:

  • 2035 — strong structural support

  • 2022 — deep retracement support

  • 2008 — critical trend invalidation level

Minor intraday supports:

  • 2045

  • 2040

Key Resistance Levels

Major resistance:

  • 2065 — primary breakout level

  • 2078 — continuation resistance

  • 2095 — major expansion target

Minor resistance:

  • 2055

  • 2060

ADX Analysis (H4)

Current reading interpretation:

ADX between 20–25 range indicates:

  • Weak trend environment

  • Market currently building next move

  • Expansion likely soon

When ADX rises above 25:

Expect strong directional continuation.

RSI Analysis

4-Hour RSI:

  • Neutral zone (45-60)

  • No extreme condition yet

Interpretation:

  • Not overbought

  • Not oversold

  • Room exists for continuation in either direction

Overbought / Oversold Oscillator Analysis

On H4:

Oversold zone:

  • Below 30 → high-probability buy zone

Overbought zone:

  • Above 70 → potential retracement zone

Current condition:

Neutral → breakout pending

Parabolic SAR Analysis

4-Hour Chart

Parabolic SAR is alternating near price.

Interpretation:

  • No confirmed trend expansion yet

  • Market is transitioning phase

Signal confirmation occurs when SAR aligns fully below or above price consistently.

Intraday Analysis — 15-Minute Chart (Scalp Bias)

This is where high-probability scalp entries exist.

Current condition:

20 EMA:

  • Acting as precise intraday support/resistance

Parabolic SAR:

  • Frequently flipping

  • Indicates scalping environment, not trend expansion yet

Oscillators:

Showing repeated:

  • Overbought → sell scalp opportunities

  • Oversold → buy scalp opportunities

High Probability Intraday Trade Zones Today

Buy Entries

Best buy zones:

2040 – 2045 zone

Confirmation required:

• Parabolic SAR below price
• RSI above 40 rising
• Price above 20 EMA

Targets:

2055
2065

Sell Entries

Best sell zones:

2058 – 2065 zone

Confirmation required:

• Parabolic SAR above price
• RSI turning down
• Rejection from resistance

Targets:

2045
2035

5-Minute and 15-Minute Chart Integration

Short timeframe oscillators are extremely effective today.

Use strategy:

Oversold on M5/M15:

→ Buy scalp into 20 EMA or resistance

Overbought on M5/M15:

→ Sell scalp into support

This aligns perfectly with current consolidation environment.

Market Bias Summary

Primary bias (H4 and Daily):

Bullish continuation structure
Short-term neutral consolidation

Intraday bias:

Range scalp with breakout potential

Breakout triggers:

Above 2065 → bullish expansion
Below 2035 → bearish correction

Fundamental Analysis — Key Drivers Today and This Week

Gold movement today is influenced primarily by:

US Dollar Expectations

Gold moves inversely to USD strength.

If USD weakens:

Gold rises rapidly.

If USD strengthens:

Gold pulls back.

Federal Reserve Outlook

Markets remain highly sensitive to:

• Rate cut expectations
• Inflation outlook
• Fed commentary

Higher rates weaken gold.
Lower rate expectations strengthen gold.

Risk Sentiment

Gold strengthens during:

  • Economic uncertainty

  • Market volatility

  • Risk-off sentiment

Gold weakens during:

  • Strong equity rallies

  • Risk-on environments

Expected Behavior Today

Most probable scenario:

Range between:

2040 – 2065

Until breakout confirmation.

Breakout probability increases later in US session.

Professional Trade Plan Today

Primary buy plan:

Buy near 2040–2045
Target 2055–2065

Primary sell plan:

Sell near 2060–2065
Target 2045–2035

Breakout plan:

Buy breakout above 2065
Target 2078–2095

Algorithmic Automation — Emerge and Minting

These exact technical conditions are what professional algorithmic systems exploit continuously.

Both systems monitor automatically:

• 20 EMA structure
• ADX trend strength
• RSI and oscillator extremes
• Parabolic SAR reversals
• Multi-timeframe confirmation
• Institutional support and resistance

— flagship system designed for structured trend exploitation and controlled expansion entries.

https://www.mql5.com/en/market/product/161719

— optimized for high-frequency intraday profit harvesting and scalp automation.

They remove emotional bias and execute precise entries based on objective market conditions.

https://www.mql5.com/en/market/product/163355


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