XAUUSD Analysis
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XAUUSD Analysis Based on live data at this exact moment, my short-term bias is SELL / Bearish. We have clear bearish momentum across M1, M5, M15, and H1 timeframes. RSI is showing oversold conditions, which could trigger a short-term bounce upward, but the overall trend remains downward. Price is currently below all key EMA/SMA resistance zones on the lower timeframes. That said, on the H4 timeframe indicators are pointing upward, so the longer-term direction is still bullish.
Current Price: $4211.77
Key Levels Immediate Support:
• $4203.39 → M1 Low Swing
• $4191.04 → M5 & M15 Low Swing (very strong liquidity zone)
Immediate Resistance:
• $4226.30 → M1 High Swing
• $4229.73 → M5 High Swing
• $4235.97 → Strong M5 High Swing
• $4264.44 → Recent major high on H1 & H4 (significant long-term resistance)
Price Action & Full ICT Perspective
• Bearish Order Blocks: $4226 – $4236 zone (based on M5 swing high) → powerful unmitigated bearish OB. Best potential short entry on a pullback.
• EMA100 as Dynamic Resistance: • M1 EMA100 → $4215.83
• M5 EMA100 → $4220.95 • M15 EMA100 → $4227.67
• Pivot Points:
The recent high at $4264.44 on H1 and H4 is considered a major longer-term pivot zone.
• Liquidity Grab:
$4203 and $4191 are high-probability liquidity pool areas. Watch for potential fake breakdowns below these levels followed by a sharp reversal higher.
• Patterns:
M1, M5, and M15 are forming a clear Descending Triangle → confirmation of continued bearish pressure.
• Important Levels Summary:
• $4264.44 → Recent high, major resistance
• $4191.04 → Key support & strong liquidity zone
• $4226 – $4236 → Bearish order block zone
• EMA100 (M1, M5, M15) → Dynamic resistance levels
Why These Levels Matter?
These levels are critical because they are exactly where price has previously reacted strongly. Swing highs and lows show where buyers and sellers fought hard in the past, and order blocks represent areas where large institutions most likely left significant unfilled orders. Liquidity grabs almost always happen around these zones as market makers hunt stops and accumulate positions. Start of the Week – Asian Session Behavior Given the current bearish momentum on lower timeframes and the fact that we’re in the Asian session (typically low volume), I expect an initial consolidation phase. Price will likely range between $4191 and $4236 while testing reactions at these key levels before giving us a clearer directional clue. Golden Insights
1. H1 RSI Divergence: RSI on H1 is at 40.7 (near oversold), while H4 RSI is at 55.5 → weak bullish divergence present. This could signal a potential short-term reversal upward in the coming hours, but we still need stronger confirmation.
2. M5 MACD: Currently fully bearish → short-term momentum remains downward. Final Recommendation
Cautiously bearish for now – stay very alert for fakeouts and reactions at the key levels mentioned.
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Wishing you massive pips and green screens Aty
