📊 Risk-to-Reward Distribution — Why Win Rate Doesn’t Matter

📊 Risk-to-Reward Distribution — Why Win Rate Doesn’t Matter

🎯 The Lesson

Most traders obsess over win rate.
They brag about “80% accuracy” like it guarantees success.
But the truth is simple:
A high win rate means nothing if your risk-to-reward distribution is wrong.
Risk management determines profit — not accuracy.

⚙️ Step 1: Why a 30% Win Rate Can Beat an 80% Win Rate

Example 1: High win rate, bad R:R

• Win rate: 80%

• Avg win: 0.5R

• Avg loss: –2R

Expectancy = (0.8 × 0.5) – (0.2 × 2)
= 0.4R – 0.4R
= 0R (break-even)

You win a lot…
but you don’t grow.

Example 2: Low win rate, strong R:R

• Win rate: 35%

• Avg win: 3R

• Avg loss: –1R

Expectancy = (0.35 × 3) – (0.65 × 1)
= 1.05R – 0.65R
= +0.40R per trade

You lose more trades…
but you make money consistently.

📉 Step 2: Your R:R Distribution Is Your Real Edge

Markets are random — your control comes from risk structure.
A trader with:

• 1:1.5 average R:R

• 45% win rate

…will always outperform a trader with:

• 1:1 average R:R

• 60% win rate

It’s not about “how often you win,”
but how much you win when you win versus how little you lose when you lose.

📊 Step 3: The Only Distribution That Matters

Aim for this distribution over 50 trades:

• 20 winners

• 30 losers
  If winners average 2R, losers average 1R:

Profit = (20 × 2R) – (30 × 1R)
= 40R – 30R
= +10R total

At 2% risk per trade → +20% gain
Even with a 40% win rate.
This is how real traders grow accounts.

💡 Step 4: Stop Adjusting Stops, Fix Your R:R

Avoid:
❌ Moving SL further
❌ Closing winners too early
❌ Setting unrealistic TP levels

Focus on:
✅ Consistent 1:1.5 or higher R:R
✅ Logical stop placement
✅ Letting winners reach target

You don’t need accuracy — you need structure.

🚀 Takeaway

Win rate impresses people.
Risk-to-reward impresses your equity curve.
Stop chasing accuracy.
Start designing a distribution where even small winners build real growth over time.

📢 Join my MQL5 channel for more trading & risk-management insights:
👉 https://www.mql5.com/en/channels/issam_kassas