(18 November 2019)DAILY MARKET BRIEF 2:Impeachment hearings continue as Erdogan visits:

The House began the public phase of the impeachment inquiry this week with hearings featuring three witnesses from the State Department. All three gave testimony that generally supports the rationale behind House Democrats' push to impeach President Trump.

The timetable for a final House vote on impeachment is still up in the air, but we expect a vote in mid- or late December. This would mean that the Senate trial would begin in January. Senators told us this week that they expect a trial to last between four and eight weeks, which would mean that it likely would run through the crucial early contests for the Democratic presidential nomination fight, most notably the Iowa caucus on February 3 and the New Hampshire primary on February 11.

Six senators currently running for president would need to participate in the Senate impeachment trial rather than campaign in these early states, which likely would hurt their chances to win those states.

How the House and Senate processes for impeachment evolve over the next few weeks will impact voters as they brace for a competitive presidential election next November. Many pundits point to the 1998 impeachment (but not conviction) of then President Bill Clinton as a political disaster for Republicans, who suffered losses in the mid-term elections later that year.

It is too early to know whether Democrats will suffer from the current impeachment proceedings.

There is at least one big difference from the current atmosphere compared to 1998. In 1998, President Clinton had an approval rating of 65% among voters (which rose to 73% the following year). President Trump's approval rating today is 44%.

Much of the damage done to Republicans in 1998 can be attributed to Clinton's popularity at the time, particularly among independent voters. With many voters unwilling to give President Trump the benefit of the doubt, he may have a harder time emerging from this process in a stronger political position.

President Erdogan's visit with President Trump occurred in the midst of US impeachment hearings and continued Turkish military activity in northeastern Syria.

A strong bipartisan majority in the House and Senate is supportive of the enactment of new sanctions against Turkey in light of its military activity, with the House already having passed a bill a few weeks ago. There is pressure in the Senate to pass a stronger sanctions bill, but that legislation won't move forward anytime soon. Senate leaders, at the Trump administration's urging, will wait to see how Turkey further conducts its military campaign.

Although President Trump was criticized for his decision to acquiesce to the Turkish military operation and pull US troops out of northern Syria, there is still a hope that an acceptable outcome could evolve in the region that gives Turkey its desired buffer zone and the Kurds a viable settlement area. If the military situation on the ground puts the Kurds in a more vulnerable position, however, the Senate will act quickly to impose the new sanctions.

By UBS