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Tuesday, March 27th
The EUR/USD pair shows positive results for the third consecutive session, having tested its 5-week highs, located on the level of 1.2476. The main reason of pair’s positive trend could be called subdued dynamics of the US dollar, caused by ongoing concerns over a potential US-China trade war. However, it seems that tensions between the US and China eased somewhat, as both sides have begun talks on how to avoid trade conflict. On the other hand, it is expected that the pair will keep its positive tone today, as the euro benefits from persisting risk-off environment, which was additionally boosted by scandal, involving Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. Today we will have another quiet trading session, as the economic calendar will remain silent, so the US dollar dynamics and risk sentiment will continue remain the key determinants for the pair this Tuesday.
The USD/JPY pair extends its yesterday’s upside correction, having refreshed its 3-day highs on the level of 105.75, in wake of widespread risk-on sentiment recovery. The return in risk appetite across the market is mainly explained by fading concerns over the US-China trade war, as, according to the latest reports, two world’s biggest economies are ready to discuss trade terms. However, investors’ interest to risky assets may appear limited, as today the Japanese government resumes hearing testimony on the government's land sale scandal, where PM Shinzo Abe was involved. On the data front, today we will witness another quiet session, as only US consumer confidence data will be released during the NA session, so swings in risk appetite will set up pair’s next direction.
The GBP/USD pair continues to gain points for the third session in a row, despite strong risk aversion, keeping its positions in the region of its 3-week tops, marked at 1.4244 spot a day before. The main reason of pair’s positive tone could be called the convergence of the Fed and BoE monetary policies, as both regulators are planning to increase their interest rates this year. On the other hand, persisting risk-off environment, additionally underpinned by Japanese land sale scandal, limits pair’s upside trend somewhat. Today the economic calendar will remain silent, leaving the pair at the mercy of widespread trend, caused by investors’ interest to risky assets.
The AUD/USD pair failed to keep its bullish mood and retreated from its 3-day tops, marked at 0.7757 earlier this session. However, it is expected that the retreat will be short-lived and the pair will regain its positive tone, as recovery of investors’ interest to higher-yielding assets, triggered by easing tensions between the US and China, is positively affecting the pair. Moreover, bullish tone on the commodity market, especially around copper and gold prices, also provides support to Aussie this Tuesday. However, some cautiousness may persist on the market today, as Japanese land sale scandal, where Japanese officials were involved, comes to the fore, thus weighing the pair. Looking ahead, nothing much is scheduled in the economic calendar for this trading session, so widespread market trend, caused by risk sentiment, will remain the key navigator for the pair on Tuesday.
Major events of the day:
US CB Consumer Confidence – 17.00 (GMT +3)
Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.2305 R. 1.2533
USDJPY S. 104.28 R. 106.02
GBPUSD S. 1.4083 R. 1.4317
USDCHF S. 0.9403 R. 0.9513
AUDUSD S. 0.7672 R. 0.7788
NZDUSD S. 0.7201 R. 0.7347
USDCAD S. 1.2785 R. 1.2951
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