The second read of the US GDP will be released this afternoon and should be around 3%. The data remains strong and as we mentioned several times over the last few weeks, the inflation is also on the rise. However, markets have recently punished the greenback against the US dollar. The central bank’s ambition about the rate path seems very cautious in regard to the strong data and this is this cautiousness that is weighing down on the dollar. We consider that the Fed must be cautious given the massive amount of money that went into all asset classes.
In the same time, Gold is up stalling below $1300 and the S&P 500 is reaching new all-time high. Only US bonds with short-term maturities are getting slightly lowered. We believe that the Eurodollar has all the inputs for the reaching again 1.20. The short-term decline that happens for the dollar are often temporary and the trend is clearly bullish.
By Yann Quelenn