Risk appetite in Asia remains weak with steady selling in EM FX and stocks. No surprisingly, US President Trump and President Xi Jinping attendance at the Apec summit has failed to generate positive sentiment. Despite the friendly glad-handing, markets can’t shake the fact that the two nations seem to be on collision course (economically at least). Even advancements in financial liberalizations with China allowing foreign ownership on financial institutions (more details to follow) did not provide a positive impulse. In Australia, the RBA released their Statement on Monetary Policy.
Overall the reports sounded dovish as core inflation is not expected to reach 2% till 2019 and GDP growth will linger around 3% for the next few years. As in many developed markets economies, unemployment numbers are positive yet failing to materialize into wage inflation. The RBA also highlighted their concern over high household debt which is likely to constrain personal consumption in the near term. Finally, the report issued a warning that season drop in Chinese import numbers, specifically iron ore, due the crack down on steel production to curb pollution could be a lasting trend. Australia dependence on Chinese commodity demand suggest volatility near-term as demand and policy action clash. AUDUSD failure to clear 200d MA resistance suggest a retest of 0.7627 base support. Failure for support to hold would trigger a bearish breakout to 0.7530.
By Yann Quelenn