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Thursday, October 5th
The EUR/USD pair was consolidating its positions in the region of 1.1750-70 during the Asian trading session, as investors refrain from placing any important directional bets ahead of the ECB minutes. Now all market’s attention remains focused on the release of the protocols from the last ECB meeting, which is scheduled on the European afternoon, as investors await for fresh clues on probable changes in the QE program. However, seems that the dust around the Catalonian independency referendum has settled down, allowing the main currency pair to correct higher from its nearly 2-month lows, posted on Tuesday in the region of 1.1700 level. Adding to this, downside correction of the US dollar, despite yesterday’s positive results from the US economy, also collaborates with pair’s mild bullish trend on Thursday. Besides the ECB minutes, nothing noteworthy is scheduled in the data calendar for today, so the pair will continue to trace global market trend to determine its further trajectory during the NA session.
The AUD/USD pair came under strong selling pressure this morning, following awful Australian Retail Sales data, having eased most part of its yesterday’s gains. These economic results have reinforced market’s expectations that the RBA will continue to refrain from monetary policy tightening measures, especially after recent comments of the head of the RBA, saying that the Australian CB will continue to maintain accommodative monetary policy as long as it is needed. Moreover, subdued sentiments around oil prices and growing cautiousness among investors in wake of upcoming key market-moving event are exerting additional negative influence on the higher-yielding Aussie. In the day ahead, we will have pretty quiet data session, as the US economic event calendar contains only several Fedspeaks, so broad market trend will continue to navigate the pair throughout this trading session.
The USD/JPY pair failed to expend yesterday’s rebound from its weekly lows, having met resistance near the level of 113.00, amid increased cautiousness across the market. Yesterday the pair received strong bullish impetus following upbeat US ADP jobs report and US non-manufacturing PMI, which improved sentiments around the greenback across the market. However, the pair stalled its upside rally and entered consolidation phase within 112.70-90 corridor amid prevalent cautious environment, as investors’ focus shifts towards the key risky event of this week – the NFP data release, which is scheduled for Friday. Looking ahead, nothing noteworthy is scheduled in the US data calendar for this Thursday, so US dollar price changes and risk-off moods will remain as key determinants for the pair throughout this trading session.
The GBP/USD pair failed to keep its positions, recovered during the Asian session after positive data from the US economy, and lost more than 50 pips at the European opening, having refreshed its monthly lows at 1.3175 post. Recent weakness of the pair is mainly attributed to the uncertainty over the UK’s political climate, as lack of progress in Brexit negotiations negatively affects the pound. Moreover, growing cautiousness ahead of the key risky event of this week – the US nonfarm payrolls data release also weighs on the higher-yielding pound on this Thursday. Today both economic calendars contain only secondary tier events, including several Fedspeaks and the speech of BoE Chief Economist A.Haldane, so today investors will await for fresh comments regarding monetary policy paths of both regulators, which will be able to bring trading opportunities to investors during the NA session.
The main events of the day:
ECB Meeting Minutes – 14.30 (GMT +3)
Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1706 R. 1.1814
USDJPY S. 112.06 R. 113.28
GBPUSD S. 1.3187 R. 1.3321
USDCHF S. 0.9688 R. 0.9792
AUDUSD S. 0.7809 R. 0.7901
NZDUSD S. 0.7113 R. 0.7231
USDCAD S. 1.2424 R. 1.2524
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