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Thursday, August 31st
The EUR/USD pair extends its downside trend for the third session in a row, correcting from its multiyear highs, posted on Tuesday in the region of 1.2070. By the moment of writing, the pair has lost about 2 cents since its recent highs, consolidating its retreat in the area of 1.1870-90. The fall of the pair is mainly due to the recovery of the dollar, following easing political conflict around North Korea and widespread profit taking actions after higher volatility period. Moreover, yesterday’s positive ADP jobs change and flash GDP numbers also added some confidence to the US dollar. However, further retreat may lack of momentum, as investors are preparing for another risky event of this week – NFP, which will be released on Friday. Now immediate focus remains on the prelim. EU CPI report, which will shape up pair’s near-term direction, while the US data calendar will keep investors busy during the NA session.
Today the USD/JPY pair continues to trade in the north direction for the fourth consecutive session, expanding its recovery from 4-month lows, touched earlier this week. Strong upside trend of the pair can be mainly attributed to the ongoing recovery of the US dollar, boosted by strong increase in jobs by ADP and upbeat US GDP figures, while red numbers of preliminary Japanese Industrial Production report negatively affected the yen. Adding to this, cooling off tensions around Korean Peninsula and improving investors' risk appetite also underpin pair’s positive traction in the second half of this week. However, improved risk sentiments may turn negative later this session, as we are heading towards the main event of this week – NFP, which will be released tomorrow. Meanwhile, today investors will focus their attention on the bloc of US fundamentals, featuring Pending Home Sales data and several secondary tier reports, for fresh trading opportunities, which will be available in the NA session.
The Kiwi was the main outsider of the Asian trading session, allowing the NZD/USD pair to refresh its nearly 3-month lows at 0.7145 level, despite full steamed risk-on trend, which was underpinned by positive Chinese construction data. Currently the pair is remaining within striking distance of its recent lows, as the Kiwi continues to suffer from yesterday’s RBNZ Governor G.Wheeler’s dovish talks regarding higher NZD. Adding to this, growing demand for the greenback, supported by yesterday’s positive data from the US economy, also weighs heavily on the NZD/USD pair on Thursday. Now all traders’ attention shifts towards the bloc of US reports, which contains data from the US housing market and several second tier data releases, while the US dollar price dynamics will continue to navigate the pair throughout this trading session.
The GBP/USD pair was showing subdued trading dynamics in Asia, wobbling slightly above the level of 1.2900, as several driving factors were influencing the pair. The greenback continues to gather strength against its main peers, benefiting from yesterday’s upbeat US GDP and ADP jobs reports, which have underpinned market’s hopes of a Dec Fed rate hike. On the other hand, improved risk appetite, boosted by positive results from the Chinese manufacturing sector and easing tensions around North Korea, remains one of the key drivers across the market on Thursday that positively affects higher-yielding GBP. Today the UK docket will remain silent, offering nothing that could influence pair’s trajectory, while the US economy will bring data from the housing market, which expectedly will keep investors busy in NA session.
The main events of the day:
German Unemployment Change – 11.00 (GMT +3)
Prelim. EU CPI – 12.00 (GMT +3)
Canadian GDP– 15.30 (GMT +3)
US Pending Home Sales – 17.00 (GMT +3)
Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1812 R. 1.2018
USDJPY S. 109.16 R. 110.96
GBPUSD S. 1.2853 R. 1.2971
USDCHF S. 0.9499 R. 0.9713
AUDUSD S. 0.7823 R. 0.8033
NZDUSD S. 0.7133 R. 0.7311
USDCAD S. 1.2449 R. 1.2721
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