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3 November 2016, 11:54

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Thursday, November 3rd


News that D.Trump is in the lead of US presidential election race following an ABC/Washington Post poll’s results are still gripping the market negatively influencing US dynamic as investors think that D.Trump’s taxation program will drive US economy back to recession.


Risk-off sentiment is still influencing the market this morning amid uncertainty over US election thereby supporting safe-haven currencies such as JPY and CHF and bringing bearish sentiments to higher-yielding assets like GBP and Aussie. Additionally, tomorrow’s NFP also adds cautiousness to the common basket as it remains one of the riskiest events of this week.


The pound keeps firmer ahead of its crucial Interest Rate Decision. However, it’s unlikely that BOE will change its interest rate today, but further monetary policy easing is expected. Moreover, UK’s Services PMI will also be closely eyed for fresh impetus.


The market mostly ignored yesterday’s flat Fed Interest Rate Decision keeping US dollar against its major peers almost unchanged. Moreover, in its feedback FOMC couldn’t provide market with strong rate-hike signal expanding its stay-and-see mode. However, some market participants could see some hawkish note in FOMC outlook but the market has already significantly priced in December’s Fed rate-hike to somehow react on doubtful hints.


The main events of the day:

UK Services PMI – 11.30 (+2 GMT)

BOE Inflation Report – 14.00 (+2 GMT)

BOE Interest Rate Decision – 14.00 (+2 GMT)

US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI – 16.00 (+2 GMT)


Support and resistance levels for major currency pairs

EURUSD        S. 1.1016 R. 1.1162

USDJPY         S. 102.34 R. 104.64

GBPUSD        S. 1.2159 R. 1.2425

USDCHF        S. 0.9667 R. 0.9785

AUDUSD       S. 0.7584 R. 0.7716

NZDUSD       S. 0.7128 R. 0.7390

USDCAD       S. 1.3326 R. 1.3454

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